Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Your ability to deny the market forces of Supply and Demand is truly something to behold.

You saw the tweet, there’s plenty of supply in Toronto apparently.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But we neeed more supply!

John Pasalis
@JohnPasalis
The Toronto area had 7,860 condo apartments for sale at the end of May

That is the highest number of units for sale ever

In any month, any year, including during COVID

https://x.com/JohnPasalis/status/1797731653567299750

For sale doesn't mean they are empty or that there isn't a shortage of inventory in general and in other categories. This looks like a lot of specuvestors bailing out as negative cashflow starts to bite. That, in no way means, the housing crisis is over.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You saw the tweet, there’s plenty of supply in Toronto apparently.

Sales are down because interest rates have spiked. It will take time but prices will get lower and sales will happen.

Are you saying that this snapshot is proof we don't have a housing crisis in Canada? Rents are cheap?

[ssiguy]

There is one very simply way to make a dent in our housing crisis...........kick ALL TFW and 90% of the students out of the country. That would free over 700,000 housing units overnight. Certainly allow 6 months for TFWs and allow students to finish their academic year but after that they are gone. Only people with VERY high demand qualifications should be allowed to stay and they should not be eligible for any gov't programs at all including healthcare until they get landed status. Emergency care yes but taken out of the flat $20k non-refundable application per person ie M&D with 2 kids equals 80k. Having a kid does not mean their are citizens and allow any family with a child to finish their school year but after that you and your family are out. Canada should also ban all new refugee claims for at least 3 years and disallow any further family reunifications indefinitely.

Instead we have Trudeau doubling down on refugees with his new 5000 coming in from Gaza which Europe is not stupid enough to allow in nor any of Gaza's neighbours as they are a legitimate threat to our security. I saw a poll today which stated that 70% of Gazans agreed with the attack on Israel to say nothing of having neanderthal attitudes towards women and sexual/gender minorities.

We should allow no more than 50,000 people into the country and only those with qualifications in very high demand occupations and that's it. As for everyone else, good luck and good bye. We can't house our own people, we should stop trying to house everyone else. As it stands now, as soon as you land in Canada, you can stay forever no matter how you entered the country. Essentially, except for very demand occupations, all further VISA should be a flat no and 90% of non-landed immigrants should be kicked out.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

For sale doesn't mean they are empty or that there isn't a shortage of inventory in general and in other categories. This looks like a lot of specuvestors bailing out as negative cashflow starts to bite. That, in no way means, the housing crisis is over.

Exactly, and it could easily mean the housing crisis is going to worsen, if those condos are all rented, and the specuvestors who own them are trying to unload them, which means nothing's going to get built for the foreseeable future.

[whatnext]

Well if there’s so much Demand they should have no problems offloading this then


Troubled condo project The One looking for $1.2-billion sale – or else lenders won’t unload it
RACHELLE YOUNGLAIREAL ESTATE REPORTER
TIM KILADZE
INCLUDES CLARIFICATION
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

tower is seeking to sell Sam Mizrahi’s unfinished skyscraper, saying creditors won’t accept anything less than $1.2-billion for the troubled project.

The One’s lenders are owed $1.5-billion after Mr. Mizrahi and the tower’s co-owner, road-paving magnate Jenny Coco, defaulted on loan payments during the construction of the luxury condo and hotel tower in downtown Toronto.

The sale of the partly constructed tower is likely to be difficult given the history of the building, today’s high borrowing costs and a slowdown in the condo market. The receiver hopes to start the sale process Thursday, but if no bid satisfying the $1.2-billion minimum emerges, the project’s senior lenders are committed to provide financing to complete construction.…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-sale-or-else/

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There is one very simply way to make a dent in our housing crisis...........kick ALL TFW and 90% of the students out of the country. That would free over 700,000 housing units overnight. Certainly allow 6 months for TFWs and allow students to finish their academic year but after that they are gone. Only people with VERY high demand qualifications should be allowed to stay and they should not be eligible for any gov't programs at all including healthcare until they get landed status. Emergency care yes but taken out of the flat $20k non-refundable application per person ie M&D with 2 kids equals 80k. Having a kid does not mean their are citizens and allow any family with a child to finish their school year but after that you and your family are out. Canada should also ban all new refugee claims for at least 3 years and disallow any further family reunifications indefinitely.

Instead we have Trudeau doubling down on refugees with his new 5000 coming in from Gaza which Europe is not stupid enough to allow in nor any of Gaza's neighbours as they are a legitimate threat to our security. I saw a poll today which stated that 70% of Gazans agreed with the attack on Israel to say nothing of having neanderthal attitudes towards women and sexual/gender minorities.

We should allow no more than 50,000 people into the country and only those with qualifications in very high demand occupations and that's it. As for everyone else, good luck and good bye. We can't house our own people, we should stop trying to house everyone else. As it stands now, as soon as you land in Canada, you can stay forever no matter how you entered the country. Essentially, except for very demand occupations, all further VISA should be a flat no and 90% of non-landed immigrants should be kicked out.

Well that is one approach. To the right of the People's Party that can only muster 4 % but sure. It's too bad because a freeze on TFW, most students, non immediate family reunification, economic migrants except key industries is exactly the policy we need but only extremists and racists are talking about it now so anyone logical is afraid to say so.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Well if there’s so much Demand they should have no problems offloading this then


Troubled condo project The One looking for $1.2-billion sale – or else lenders won’t unload it
RACHELLE YOUNGLAIREAL ESTATE REPORTER
TIM KILADZE
INCLUDES CLARIFICATION
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

tower is seeking to sell Sam Mizrahi’s unfinished skyscraper, saying creditors won’t accept anything less than $1.2-billion for the troubled project.

The One’s lenders are owed $1.5-billion after Mr. Mizrahi and the tower’s co-owner, road-paving magnate Jenny Coco, defaulted on loan payments during the construction of the luxury condo and hotel tower in downtown Toronto.

The sale of the partly constructed tower is likely to be difficult given the history of the building, today’s high borrowing costs and a slowdown in the condo market. The receiver hopes to start the sale process Thursday, but if no bid satisfying the $1.2-billion minimum emerges, the project’s senior lenders are committed to provide financing to complete construction.…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-sale-or-else/

The demand is for affordable homes for humans, not $2000/square foot dog houses.

[Coldrsx]

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by theman23

The demand is for affordable homes for humans, not $2000/square foot dog houses.

Surely you're not suggesting Canadian developers were using scarce labour resources and materials to build useless units for people who would never live in them full time?!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Well if there’s so much Demand they should have no problems offloading this then


Troubled condo project The One looking for $1.2-billion sale – or else lenders won’t unload it
RACHELLE YOUNGLAIREAL ESTATE REPORTER
TIM KILADZE
INCLUDES CLARIFICATION
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

tower is seeking to sell Sam Mizrahi’s unfinished skyscraper, saying creditors won’t accept anything less than $1.2-billion for the troubled project.

The One’s lenders are owed $1.5-billion after Mr. Mizrahi and the tower’s co-owner, road-paving magnate Jenny Coco, defaulted on loan payments during the construction of the luxury condo and hotel tower in downtown Toronto.

The sale of the partly constructed tower is likely to be difficult given the history of the building, today’s high borrowing costs and a slowdown in the condo market. The receiver hopes to start the sale process Thursday, but if no bid satisfying the $1.2-billion minimum emerges, the project’s senior lenders are committed to provide financing to complete construction.…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-sale-or-else/

This is like arguing there's no housing shortage in New York City because some condo on Billionaire's Row is having difficulty. It's definitely a steal at $100M right?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is like arguing there's no housing shortage in New York City because some condo on Billionaire's Row is having difficulty. It's definitely a steal at $100M right?

One city is the world's financial capital building and one definitely is not.

Anyone spending tens of millions to buy any kind of condo is a moron, no matter where it is.

[whatnext]

But Supply....

Vancouver home sales fall nearly 20% in May as inventory continues to climb
VANCOUVER
THE CANADIAN PRESS
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO
UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS

Greater Vancouver’s real estate board says the number of homes that changed hands in May fell 19.9 per cent from the previous year as more new properties continued to hit the market.

Greater Vancouver Realtors said Tuesday there were 2,733 home sales in the region last month, down from 3,411 sales recorded in May 2023 and 19.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average for May.

That came as the number of Metro Vancouver homes listed for sale rose 46.3 per cent year-over-year to 13,600, which is nearly one-fifth higher than the 10-year seasonal average. In May, there were 6,374 detached, attached and apartment properties newly available – a 12.6 per cent increase compared with May 2023.

Andrew Lis, the board’s director of economics and data analytics, called it a “surprise” that May sales came in softer than usual....

...“Up until recently, prices were climbing modestly across all market segments. But with rising inventory levels and softening demand, buyers who’ve been waiting for an opportunity might have more luck this summer, even if borrowing costs remain elevated.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-continues-to/

[MonkeyRonin]

Again, there's not an excess of supply relative to demand or need. There's an excess of supply that people don't want at prices they can't afford. The actual ratio of people-to-housing is still at record lows, relative to both our recent past and that of our international peers.

Essentially, there's a fundamental mismatch between where the prices are and what our declining economy can support. But there's absolutely still a shortage of housing - particularly of the type that people want at a price they can afford.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But Supply....

Do you know what vacancy rate means?

[niwell]

If anything this exacerbates issues. Too many investor targeted projects, and projects in the pipeline where land costs were targeted as such. These are the areas most affected by changes in interest rates, particularly considering how far out of whack mortgage vs. maximum rents already are in newer condos (a lot, in Toronto at least).

This aside 7,800 units could only satisfy a small percentage of the growth the GTA is currently experiencing.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

One city is the world's financial capital building and one definitely is not.

Anyone spending tens of millions to buy any kind of condo is a moron, no matter where it is.

You completely missed the point.....as usual. The failings of high end real estate don't really tell the story of the median of the market.

Do you really believe the streets are full of homeless and that rents and prices are sky high because we have a surplus of housing? If that's the case, then why are you upset at LPC immigration policy? Clearly we have room for them.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You completely missed the point.....as usual. The failings of high end real estate don't really tell the story of the median of the market.

Do you really believe the streets are full of homeless and that rents and prices are sky high because we have a surplus of housing? If that's the case, then why are you upset at LPC immigration policy? Clearly we have room for them.

So that Vancouver story is all about high-end real estate?

As I said before, the next thing you know you'll be telling us developers built a bunch of crap that wasn't targeted to real Canadian homebuyers. Perish the thought!

But of course with their forthcoming government handouts, things will be different this time....

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But Supply....

Now do rental vacancy rates.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So that Vancouver story is all about high-end real estate?

No. It's about a real estate correction. That doesn't in any way change the amount of housing supplied or necessary. Just the equilibrium price, which is driven by interest rates.

Originally Posted by whatnext

As I said before, the next thing you know you'll be telling us developers built a bunch of crap that wasn't targeted to real Canadian homebuyers. Perish the thought!

They did target them at "real Canadian homebuyers". Those buyers were mostly Canadian investors.

Originally Posted by whatnext

But of course with their forthcoming government handouts, things will be different this time....

Well, if the government isn't going to build any housing at all, then they are going to have to bail out the only people that do.