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Posted May 30, 2024, 10:25 AM
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Montérégien
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Montréal, QC <> Paris, FR
Posts: 1,234
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The last population estimates from July 1, 2023 are interesting to look at, and I have been pleased to read all of this thead. What is even more interesting, though, is that after the (vast and expensive) consultation that were held a few years before last census (2021), which I have taken part of, Statistics Canada have decided to maintain its census metropolitan area delineation method, rather than update to a method that is becoming standard worldwide, the Functional Urban Areas (developed in collaboration with OECD and EU).
Basically, this method is simple : there are urban centres or "cities" which are defined as continuous built-up spaces. All the municipalities where most of the population live in that continuous built-up space are considered part of the "city" (in other words, the urban core). There are thresholds for size, which are based on the number of jobs, density and population of said cores. For example, the core of a functional urban area of greater importance consists of a conurbation of at least 50k population, 10k jobs and 1500ppl/sqkm. There are many sources online where you can find the detail for this method. There is then a threshold of 15% commuting between "cities". It a city sends more than 15% of its working population to another city, it is considered as a secondary "urban core" of this second city. You understand that there is no such thing as Hamilton, Oshawa, Abbotsford, Valleyfield, etc. with this method. Which is the interesting part.
The delineation method that is used in Canada for CMAs is pretty much unique worldwide, which limits comparisons when it comes to urban matters (public health, urban growth, urban sprawl, etc.) I am a researcher attached to the Urban development chair at UdeM. For most of our analysis, we use, for Canada, the data for Functional Urban Areas (Aires d'attraction des villes en français). We can therefore do some comparisons with european cities, for example. We work closely with Statistics Canada : they provide us with the granular data (ex.: census blocks, attributes, etc., which are all public by the way), and mostly, the number of jobs by census block.
Anyway, as we keep track of this data, I thought I'd share it with you, in order to add another perspective when it comes to comparing urban areas in Canada. I will be glad to answer your questions, even though demographics is not my field of study - I work in environmental geography, landscape and cultural heritage. I may have to ask colleagues before being able to come back to you.
So, according to the July 1st 2023 estimates that were released recently, Canada's main Functional Urban Areas are :
Position. Population. Name
Code:
1. 8 854 488 Toronto, ON
2. 4 925 560 Montréal, QC
3. 3 342 027 Vancouver, BC
4. 1 787 183 Calgary, AB
5. 1 745 823 Ottawa / Gatineau, ON/QC
6. 1 597 116 Edmonton, AB
7. 1 005 982 Québec, QC
8. 998 548 Winnipeg, MB
9. 683 300 Kitchener / Cambridge / Waterloo, ON
10. 682 528 London, ON
11. 552 728 Halifax, NS
12. 453 695 Victoria, BC
13. 441 736 St. Catharines / Niagara Falls, ON
14. 434 729 Windsor, ON
15. 371 640 Saskatoon, SK
16. 291 198 Sherbrooke, QC
17. 290 871 Regina, SK
18. 253 027 St. John's, NL
19. 246 789 Kelowna, BC
20. 240 197 Moncton, NB
21. 235 600 Kingston, ON
22. 214 141 Guelph, ON
23. 213 244 Trois-Rivières, QC
24. 204 585 Red Deer, AB
25. 192 723 Sudbury, ON
26. 182 072 Saguenay, QC
27. 171 685 Belleville / Trenton, ON
28. 154 156 Lethbridge, AB
29. 152 330 Fredericton, NB
30. 151 501 Peterborough, ON
31. 149 516 Nanaimo, BC
32. 146 943 Saint John, NB
33. 132 733 Kamloops, BC
34. 131 212 Thunder Bay, ON
35. 129 190 Drummondville, QC
36. 122 182 Granby, QC
37. 116 452 Sarnia, ON
38. 113 755 Charlottetown, PE
39. 113 238 Chatham-Kent, ON
40. 111 033 Sydney (Cape Breton), NS
41. 104 789 Joliette, QC
42. 101 444 North Bay, ON
43. 100 484 Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
44. 100 006 Grande Prairie, AB
A few remarks : - There is a problem with the inconsistency of census subdivisions, espacially in BC and AB, where immense municipal districts create municipal enclaves within them. The urban areas in these 2 provinces, especially Alberta, tend to grow add no municipality for a few censuses, and then add like 10 or 15 in one census, because the sum of commuting worker for a whole municipal district and all of its enclaves combined reaches 15%. The same problem is experienced with the official Statistics Canada method.
- The Toronto FUA (functional urban area) comprises Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie, Milton and Brantford, which are all secondary cores of category A. The statiscal "city" of Brantford sends 15,33% of its working population to Toronto and adjacent municipalities.
- In Vancouver, Abbotsford (A), Mission (C) and Chilliwack (B) are all considered as secondary cores.
- For Montreal, Saint-Jérôme (A), Salaberry-de-Valleyfield (B) and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu (B) are also considered as secondary cores. Saint-Hyacinthe, Sorel and Joliette are not close to become secondary cores.
- Outside of the larger 3 agglomerations, we note that Shawinigan, QC is only at 1,01% of commuting to becoming a secondary core to Trois-Rivières. We consider them separate for now. It is also interesting that Louiseville, a C-category "city", is now at 13.7% commuting to Trois-Rivières. But outside of the suburban world, these stats tend to take time to increase, and honestly, we would prefer not to see it happen.
- Sainte-Marie, QC sends 13.21% of its working force to Québec, QC. Seeing the growth of this rate in the last 2 censuses, the "city" should join QC in 5 or 10 years.
- Airdrie, AB, is a secondary core to Calgary (46% of commuting)
- Guelph, ON, is closer to be added to the FUA of Toronto (8,7% of commuting) than it is to join KCW (4,0% of commuting). Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo is not even close to join Toronto either (3.64% of commuting); it is still fairly independent.
- Vernon, BC and Kelowna are not close to merge.
- Cobourg, ON will not likely be integrated soon to Toronto, but it is getting closer (11% commuting). So is Midland (11% also). Brighton could eventually be integrated to Belleville-Trenton, but is not close enough for now (10.5%).
- Alma, QC could eventually join Saguenay, but it will take some time (understand : decades) (11% commuting). If Sorel grows more, it could also eventually be added to Montreal, but recent trends suggest otherwise (10%). Same goes for Coaticook to Sherbrooke (10.3%), and Cowansville to Granby (10%).
- Shediac is already integrated into the Moncton FUA (44% commuting for the combined town and parish).
I hope it was informative. Don't forget : these are all just stats, and they mostly are useful to compare apples to apples. This is not a popularity contest or an indicator of greatness.
Last edited by Laceoflight; May 30, 2024 at 10:40 AM.
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