Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Everybody always assumes the Brits sold us a lemon. Nobody ever talks about the years we let the subs languish port side. Take a guess what happens when you leave something in salt water without regular maintenance, for years.

I remember that debate. The Brits kept wondering when we were going to officially take the deal of the Century. The Chretien government dithered for three years and the Brits could have mothballed them but....were never asked to.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's a bit ridiculous that a country without nuclear reactors (beyond an isotope plant) is going to have a nuclear submarine program and the home of CANDU can't do that.

On a related note, the French nuclear subs run on LEU, something AECL should be quite familiar with.

Yes, absolutely ridiculous.

Back in the 80s Royal Military College and AECL worked on a design for a nuclear reactor retrofit on the Oberon subs. That was based on the AECL Slowpoke reactor design. I don't think that ever went much more before the study state.

Back then the Slowpoke AECL had built were based on enriched fuel (including the one on the RMC campus). Today the remaining units have all been converted to LEU.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Everybody always assumes the Brits sold us a lemon. Nobody ever talks about the years we let the subs languish port side. Take a guess what happens when you leave something in salt water without regular maintenance, for years.

And then ripping out the weapons system (tiger fish) and replacing it with Mk 48 (in the UK) which added a lot of time and complexity to the project. So much should’ve, would’ve, could’ve with the Victorias.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by casper

Yes, absolutely ridiculous.

Back in the 80s Royal Military College and AECL worked on a design for a nuclear reactor retrofit on the Oberon subs. That was based on the AECL Slowpoke reactor design. I don't think that ever went much more before the study state.

Back then the Slowpoke AECL had built were based on enriched fuel (including the one on the RMC campus). Today the remaining units have all been converted to LEU.

There was also the Canada class nuclear sub project. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada-class_submarine

The plan was to buy a French or UK design. The US was opposed and exercised a treaty right to block the purchase. They we're worried about conflict over the Northwest Passage.

I think this explains the reality of Defense spending in Canada. The US wants us to spend more, but also wants an outsized say in what we buy. They don't want us buying anything that could level the playing field in a conflict with them.

[Truenorth00]

The American veto was driven by proliferation and sub traffic concerns. Not so much worry that a few subs would mean we would challenge their hegemony in North America. Come on now. These are like Avro Arrow conspiracies.

And with AUKUS, I think we can safely say the worries about proliferation to allies has passed. The Americans would be holding huge parties of we offered to buy a dozen nuclear subs and keep everybody else out of the Arctic.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The American veto was driven by proliferation and sub traffic concerns. Not so much worry that a few subs would mean we would challenge their hegemony in North America. Come on now. These are like Avro Arrow conspiracies.

And with AUKUS, I think we can safely say the worries about proliferation to allies has passed. The Americans would be holding huge parties of we offered to buy a dozen nuclear subs and keep everybody else out of the Arctic.

For sure. No contribution would be more helpful to what is now clearly the most short term threat on the horizon. Even two well crewed nuclear subs in the Taiwan straight could make a military difference in a conflict.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The American veto was driven by proliferation and sub traffic concerns. Not so much worry that a few subs would mean we would challenge their hegemony in North America. Come on now. These are like Avro Arrow conspiracies.

And with AUKUS, I think we can safely say the worries about proliferation to allies has passed. The Americans would be holding huge parties of we offered to buy a dozen nuclear subs and keep everybody else out of the Arctic.

Not insinuating that a few subs would tip the balance, just that the Americans would prefer not to deal with them in any hypothetic conflict.

Remains to be seen if AUKUS has changed anything with proliferation, but maybe. Australia is a different situation for the Americans compared to Canada. Australia is on the other side of the world but Canada is right next door. Even though we're Allies currently, the Americans might be hesitant of Canada having anything that could be a thorn in it's side, if that relationship changes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ConundrumNL

Not insinuating that a few subs would tip the balance, just that the Americans would prefer not to deal with them in any hypothetic conflict.

Remains to be seen if AUKUS has changed anything with proliferation, but maybe. Australia is a different situation for the Americans compared to Canada. Australia is on the other side of the world but Canada is right next door. Even though we're Allies currently, the Americans might be hesitant of Canada having anything that could be a thorn in it's side, if that relationship changes.

In any actual dispute, nuclear vs diesel sub makes very little difference. Any sub would have been a hindrance to them. And given advances in technology since then, this is even more true today.

Either way, until we ask for a nuclear fleet, we won't know how much their views have changed. Given that there is no appetite for such in Canada, probably a moot point. But I will say, the idea that the US might let us into a deal to share AI, quantum computing and hypersonic technology certainly shows a level of trust. Arguably these are all more consequential than being able to field long endurance submarines.

[whatnext]

So, who thinks is a false flag by Putin for an Ariana Grande-concert style attack?

Multiple gunmen open fire at Moscow concert hall, building on fire after attack
News reports say many dead after assailants attacked venue with automatic weapons, explosives
The Associated Press · Posted: Mar 22, 2024

Several gunmen in combat fatigues burst into a big concert hall in Moscow on Friday and fired automatic weapons at the crowd, injuring an unspecified number of people, Russian media said.

Russian news reported that between two to five assailants were involved in the attack and also used explosives, causing a massive blaze at the Crocus City Hall on the western edge of Moscow.

Multiple Russian media outlets reported there are many dead and wounded.

The attack took place as crowds gathered for a concert by Picnic, a famed Russian rock band, at the hall, which can accommodate over 6,000 people.

Russian news reports said visitors were being evacuated....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia...tack-1.7152498

[goodgrowth]

Me

Originally Posted by whatnext

So, who thinks is a false flag by Putin for an Ariana Grande-concert style attack?

Multiple gunmen open fire at Moscow concert hall, building on fire after attack
News reports say many dead after assailants attacked venue with automatic weapons, explosives
The Associated Press · Posted: Mar 22, 2024

Several gunmen in combat fatigues burst into a big concert hall in Moscow on Friday and fired automatic weapons at the crowd, injuring an unspecified number of people, Russian media said.

Russian news reported that between two to five assailants were involved in the attack and also used explosives, causing a massive blaze at the Crocus City Hall on the western edge of Moscow.

Multiple Russian media outlets reported there are many dead and wounded.

The attack took place as crowds gathered for a concert by Picnic, a famed Russian rock band, at the hall, which can accommodate over 6,000 people.

Russian news reports said visitors were being evacuated....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia...tack-1.7152498

[Truenorth00]

I am kinda hoping it's ISIS or someone else. Because them taking their eye of their domestic security is really going to undermine support for Putin. But given the way they are acting and already insinuating it was Ukraine, it looks like a false flag.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am kinda hoping it's ISIS or someone else. Because them taking their eye of their domestic security is really going to undermine support for Putin. But given the way they are acting and already insinuating it was Ukraine, it looks like a false flag.

IS has claimed responsibility. Still it seems a bit odd.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am kinda hoping it's ISIS or someone else. Because them taking their eye of their domestic security is really going to undermine support for Putin. But given the way they are acting and already insinuating it was Ukraine, it looks like a false flag.

The US had apparently anticipated something like this. The Guardian immediately reported "Earlier this month, western countries led by the US had issued terror warnings and told their citizens not to join public gatherings in Russia.

On 8 March, the embassy wrote it was “monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and US citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours."

"Russian authorities had recently carried out a series of raids against armed Islamist militants in the region of Ingushetia, leading to pitched firefights between police and the fighters."

[MonctonRad]

I am personally greatly relieved that ISIS has claimed responsibility. If Putin had tried to pin this on Ukraine, he could have used this as an excuse for a massive missile bombardment.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I am personally greatly relieved that ISIS has claimed responsibility. If Putin had tried to pin this on Ukraine, he could have used this as an excuse for a massive missile bombardment.

He's firing as many missiles as he can make, buy or beg.

[harls]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I am personally greatly relieved that ISIS has claimed responsibility. If Putin had tried to pin this on Ukraine, he could have used this as an excuse for a massive missile bombardment.

Wouldn't put it past him to claim that ISIS is operating out of Ukraine.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I am personally greatly relieved that ISIS has claimed responsibility. If Putin had tried to pin this on Ukraine, he could have used this as an excuse for a massive missile bombardment.

The next time he takes action against Ukraine because he has an excuse will be the first time.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I am personally greatly relieved that ISIS has claimed responsibility. If Putin had tried to pin this on Ukraine, he could have used this as an excuse for a massive missile bombardment.

There is a theory that Putin will not publicly address the issue. The government in Russia does not want to be forced to admit it was warned by the west and did nothing.

The US, UK, a number of western countries (including European countries and Canada) had publicly issued warning that they had intelligence this was expected to happen earlier in the month. There are some reports that the west even shared intelligence with Russia on the terrorist risk. Russia did nothing.

Canadian news report from a few weeks ago.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10344304/...oscow-warning/

[Architype]

Originally Posted by casper

There is a theory that Putin will not publicly address the issue. The government in Russia does not want to be forced to admit it was warned by the west and did nothing.

The US, UK, a number of western countries (including European countries and Canada) had publicly issued warning that they had intelligence this was expected to happen earlier in the month. There are some reports that the west even shared intelligence with Russia on the terrorist risk. Russia did nothing.

Canadian news report from a few weeks ago.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10344304/...oscow-warning/

This intelligence failure shares some lack of accountability with Israel, who also ignored any warnings. If there is a pattern it is one of self assured invincibility. On the other hand, Putin can use this ostensible threat made real to solidify support.

[Truenorth00]

French Senate has rejected Canada-EU free trade deal, that Macron campaigned for. Returns to the lower house.
https://apnews.com/article/macron-fr...f0642a03a01f22