Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak - Page 86

rofina · #**1701** Posted **Sep 29, 2020, 3:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not sure things will change long term (living in cities, etc.).

My variable mortgage is down to 1.4%. Hard to see real estate getting hit too hard when that's available. Locally, downtown condos are in a tough spot, but that will pass after a moderate correction IMO.

The second international travel and borders are open, DT condos recover.

Cities are here to stay, governments haven't changed, and neither have policies.
Urban growth and density policies will remain in force around the world, and certainly locally.

SpongeG · #**1702** Posted **Sep 30, 2020, 1:25 AM**

I hope so, Tokyo is losing so many things, I just read that iconic Robot Restaurant has closed down due to covid

Changing City · #**1703** Posted **Oct 2, 2020, 10:50 PM**

So it would seem that the 'news' of collapsing sales last month was wrong. September sales were 3,643 in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver area - the highest for September in at least the last 20 years and 53% above the monthly average in the past 10 years. Benchmark prices for detached homes are up 7.8% year-on-year, and apartments were up 4.5%.

Changing City · #**1704** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 5:05 PM**

October sales soon to be published. Apparently around 3,400 sold in the REBGV area, 19% more than October 2019, and above the 10 year average, but a bit less than September 2020. Median prices are up 9% and average prices up 12% year-on-year. Obviously the detailed data will show differences around the region, and between condos and houses.

WarrenC12 · #**1705** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 5:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Changing City

October sales soon to be published. Apparently around 3,400 sold in the REBGV area, 19% more than October 2019, and above the 10 year average, but a bit less than September 2020. Median prices are up 9% and average prices up 12% year-on-year. Obviously the detailed data will show differences around the region, and between condos and houses.

Anecdotally RE agents are still telling me this is leftover demand from the Spring when nothing was happening. Time will tell with total 2019-2020 YOY sales I guess.

Changing City · #**1706** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 6:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Anecdotally RE agents are still telling me this is leftover demand from the Spring when nothing was happening. Time will tell with total 2019-2020 YOY sales I guess.

2020 sales in 10 months are already only 1,000 less than the whole of 2019. If November and December sales follow similar patterns to previous years the total would be around 30,000 sales for the year, a little under the 32,000 10-year average, but more than either 2018 or 2019.

WarrenC12 · #**1707** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 6:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Changing City

2020 sales in 10 months are already only 1,000 less than the whole of 2019. If November and December sales follow similar patterns to previous years the total would be around 30,000 sales for the year, a little under the 32,000 10-year average, but more than either 2018 or 2019.

Thanks that makes sense. Overall I'd call it a soft market considering mortgage rates have fallen through the floor.

rofina · #**1708** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 8:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Thanks that makes sense. Overall I'd call it a soft market considering mortgage rates have fallen through the floor.

Were also in a pandemic and arguably the most insecure employment market since, who knows when, the Depression?

The resilience is impressive.

Bears have now had a global financial crisis, and a global pandemic to burst this bubble, and both are rocketing prices to new highs.

I'm genuinely curious how many are accepting of this.

The only ace left is a natural disaster - 9.0 shaker or something.

rofina · #**1709** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 8:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Thanks that makes sense. Overall I'd call it a soft market considering mortgage rates have fallen through the floor.

I got 2.19% on a rental property over 30 years. Pretty damn sweet.

MIPS · #**1710** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 8:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rofina

The only ace left is a natural disaster - 9.0 shaker or something.

Have we factored asset liquidation on properties owned by American hedge funds and property management companies should the election tomorrow not end favorably?

WarrenC12 · #**1711** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 9:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rofina

I got 2.19% on a rental property over 30 years. Pretty damn sweet.

My personal mortgage is at 1.4%.

scryer · #**1712** Posted **Nov 2, 2020, 11:31 PM**

Is this the new flex thread now?

Changing City · #**1713** Posted **Nov 24, 2020, 11:39 PM**

An interesting report at Vancouver City Council passed today. (All in favour, including Cllr. Swanson, except Cllr Hardwick who was opposed). It allows developers in the Burrard Corridor area of the West End Plan to switch from strata with 25% non-market units, to 100% rental with a proportion guaranteed below-market rental units. It's a two year trial of the new policy.

"A minimum of 20% of the residential floor area is secured as below-market rental (BMR) units, or one-for-one replacement of existing rental units with below-market rental units, whichever is greater. The number of BMR units and/or the depth of affordability may be increased depending on the proforma review. All rental housing and the affordability of below-market units would be secured for the greater of 60 years or life of the building".

So far there have been five tower rezonings proposed in that area; two by Strand/Intracorp, and three by Bosa. None have been enacted, and the developers aren't planning on building them as strata in the current economy. "Recent shifts in Vancouver’s real estate market have impacted the financial viability of strata condominium developments and consequently made it challenging to deliver social housing".

whatnext · #**1714** Posted **Dec 10, 2020, 12:24 AM**

Great to see this finally going live:

Foreign ownership registry a game changer in B.C. say real estate insiders
KERRY GOLD
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 11 HOURS AGO

Recent government action to force transparency of property ownership in B.C. had outspoken immigration lawyer Richard Kurland so impressed that he fired off a letter to the Premier.

“It’s game over. It’s huge,” Mr. Kurland says. “It means you can’t hide international capital in B.C. real estate. And it’s about gosh darn time, because there were so many players who benefitted from being blind … including individuals who were able to hide capital, to hide profits from the tax authorities of Canada and their home countries.”

According to the province, the Land Owner Transparency Registry, which came into effect on Nov. 30, is the first in the world to require ownership disclosure of land that is owned by corporations, partners and trustees – also known as beneficial ownership...

...Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s city program, says the CHSP finally provided meaningful numbers on the extent of non-resident ownership in B.C. and Ontario.

“One of the stunning statistics it just discovered was how 17 per cent of recently built condos in the city of Vancouver were owned by at least one owner who did not live in Canada,” Mr. Yan says...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est...ry-a-game-changer-in-bc-say-real-estate/

Sheba · #**1715** Posted **Dec 15, 2020, 9:11 PM**

B.C. real estate: Markets outside Vancouver driving detached home sales

Quote:

Momentum in B.C.’s buoyant real estate market is coming from outside Vancouver, especially in the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan, as buyers continue to seek detached homes.

“Normally, we see kind of a seasonal slowing,” said chief economist Brendon Ogmundson of the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Detached home sales have continued rising for months during the pandemic because buyers want more space to work from home or their own yard.

“We’re seeing a lot of the record this month driven not by (Metro) Vancouver,” said Ogmundson, “A lot of the strength has been in markets outside.”

...

“Land seems to be at a premium. There are a lot of buyers looking for that, especially in the entry-price level ranges in established areas” of Abbotsford, said James Lal, a real estate agent with Valley Realty.

“Here in Abbotsford, for detached homes, we start in the high $620,000 to $700,000. … Typically, buyers are looking for older homes on these blocks (where) they might rebuild later. This is where we are seeing multiple offers. There does seem to be a frenzy now.”

“As you move into more luxury homes, we’re seeing less of that,” he added.

While the number of detached home sales in Fraser Valley increased by 90 per cent in November, the number of townhouse sales rose by only 51 per cent and the number of apartment unit sales by just 15 per cent over November, 2019.

The highest demand in the Fraser Valley, said Lal, is for less-expensive properties but those with more land.

...

The condo market has been going the other way, with a record number of over 2,000 listed for sale in Metro Vancouver in November.

But Ogmundson expects that once the economy steadies — with a return to in-office jobs, in-person classes and immigration, buyers and investors for condos could return.

Changing City · #**1716** Posted **Oct 29, 2021, 5:11 AM**

So this thread was started in 2010 when the 'bubble' was expected to pop. Or at any rate, deflate.

Here's the long-run chart of Greater Vancouver (but not Surrey) house prices to August. (Spoiler alert, they didn't drop in September). Benchmark on detached homes has gone from $807K in 2010 to $1.83m last month. Inflation would only have seen the price rise to about a million dollars (22%) so everything else is the bubble getting bigger. Condos have increased at almost the same pace, from $370K in 2010 to $738K last month.

What had me looking at price change was this amusing piece from BIV in 2018, talking about where condo prices would be by late 2021. It shows that 'experts' often have no better crystal ball than anybody else.

"Metro Vancouver’s average condo sale price will fall from its peak of $750K in 2018’s first quarter to as little as $550K by late 2021, according to a trend report from a local real estate analyst. That’s a drop of 26.6 per cent, similar to previous troughs seen in prior real estate market downturns, said Dane Eitel of Eitel Insights." It briefly looked like he might be correct - prices dropped from mid 2018 - but never by much, and they soon started rising again. (That's the green line on the chart). Interestingly, in his most recent publication, in July, Mr. Eitel still predicts a slide - albeit more modest "Eitel Insights anticipates a tepid 8% - 10% correction to occur." This time he could be correct. Mortgage rates are finally expected to rise, maybe as much as 2% in 2022.

Sheba · #**1717** Posted **Nov 4, 2021, 10:23 PM**

B.C. to bring in new real estate laws, including cooling off period for resale properties

Quote:

B.C. will introduce laws to protect consumers in the province’s hot real estate market, including cooling-off periods.

The government is looking into how to place restrictions on the real estate business following concerns that buyers may be committing to purchase a home without knowing everything they need to make fully informed decisions.

Cooling-off periods are limited amounts of time in which home buyers can change their minds and cancel a purchase with no or diminished legal consequences.

Finance Minister Selina Robinson announced the new law on Thursday, saying the change will be similar to the cooling-off periods already in place for pre-construction condominium sales.

She said the B.C. Financial Services Authority has been asked to review other potential consumer protection measures.

This includes looking at the blind-bidding system and waiving of conditions when making officers, the minister said in a news release on Thursday.

“People looking to buy a home need to know they are protected as they make one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. Especially in periods of heightened activity in the housing market, it’s crucial that we have effective measures in place so that people have the peace of mind that they’ve made the right choices,” Robinson said.

“With this step, we’re moving ahead to protect people and their interests in the real estate market by bringing in a cooling-off period for homebuyers and looking at additional measures to ensure effective safeguards are in place.”

The government said enabling legislation for cooling-off periods will be drafted for introduction in the spring legislative session.

jollyburger · #**1718** Posted **Nov 27, 2021, 7:12 PM**

Quote:

Among the surprises: A whopping $500,000 bonus on a subpenthouse unit in the upcoming Westbank development the Alberni at 1550 Alberni St. – on top of the commission already on offer. If Unit No. 3902 sells at the $13.9-million asking price, the commission alone would be around $150,000. [Commissions vary widely, but on this unit, it is structured as 3.22 per cent on the first $100,000 and 1.15 per cent on the balance.] With the added bonus, the buyer’s agent could walk away with as much as $650,000.

Mr. Major says bonuses are a growing trend.

“I’m looking at the British Properties, looking at homes from $3-million to $16-million, and there is a fairly significant percentage of high-end homes that offer these bonus commissions – maybe 10 to 20 per cent, would be my guess,” he said. “But, you know … there’s no way to track if these bonus commissions help sell these properties.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est...ning-to-sales-bonuses-to-attract-buyers/