It could be a long time before we find out who the two will be for the runoff.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...ayor-flip-coin
February 25, 2019 01:36 PM updated 4 hours ago
Who will be Chicago’s next mayor? ...
Greg Hinz
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Both techniques may be needed to decipher the results tomorrow evening as Chicago heads to the voting booths for a mayoral election unlike any within memory.
The latest poll, this one released over the weekend by 270 Strategies, a Chicago-based public engagement firm, underlines just how close the contest is, with Bill Daley, Lori Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle just below 14 percent of the vote each, and three others snapping at their heels: Susana Mendoza with 10 percent and Gery Chico and Willie Wilson at 9 percent.
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But if it really turns out to be that tight on election night—some experts say the "winner" could get less than 20 percent of the vote—the city may have to cross its fingers if it wants to know for sure who won anytime soon.
The reason is that, as of last evening, 62,000 applications had been filed for mail ballots, but only 26,000 returned, according to the Chicago Board of Elections. That means that, even if more ballots come in today and some people show up at the polls tomorrow or decide not to cast a ballot at all, tens of thousands of votes could trickle in late. And according to board spokesman Jim Allen, those votes legally will have to be counted as long as they're postmarked by tomorrow and arrive in the mail at board offices by March 12, when officials will complete their final canvass.
Allen terms that possibility "alarming"—and it comes even before the possibility that one or more candidates in a super-tight race might demand a recount. As a result, Chicago may not know for sure until well into March which candidates finished in the top two tomorrow and will make the April 2
Back to that final poll.
If it’s right—
keep in mind that the survey was strictly online—Preckwinkle and Daley would seem to have an edge because, unlike Lightfoot, their campaigns have decent field organizations. Preckwinkle is aided by lots of union workers, and Daley's campaign is headed by Greg Goldner, a veteran operative who managed one of Richard M. Daley's mayoral campaigns and ran current Mayor Rahm Emanuel's first race for Congress. ...
A look at early and mail balloting so far provides mixed signs. Just under 100,000 Chicagoans had cast early ballots as of Feb. 24, a respectable but by no means eye-popping total. Almost 10 percent of them came from just two wards: the Southwest Side's 19th, home to mayoral hopeful Jerry Joyce, with 5,184, and the Northwest Side's 41st, which has a hot aldermanic contest. Other wards with relatively large early-vote turnouts are tending to be in white ethnic areas on the Southwest and Northwest sides, ...
But the mail ballots are coming from a different direction. So far, the heaviest totals are in House Speaker Mike Madigan’s 13th Ward and along North Side lakefront and near-lakefront wards, including the 2nd, 42nd, 44th and 47th, some but not all of which have good contests for alderman.
If that pattern holds up, and lots of votes from those areas show up in the mail over the next two weeks, it could make the outcome extremely unpredictable.
Best advice: Expect a close and maybe very long night. If you have problems voting, the board has a voter hotline at 312-269-7870.
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