The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[KnoxfordGuy]

One quarter does not a trajectory make.

[q12]

It's a reality check.

This is the new trajectory. Immigration is slowing in Canada and population growth rates will follow suit.

Here is a visual on the trajectory.

Nova Scotia


New Brunswick


P.E.I.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by q12

It's a reality check.

This is the new trajectory. Immigration is slowing in Canada and population growth rates will follow suit.

Here is a visual on the trajectory.

Nova Scotia


New Brunswick


P.E.I.

Is there a way to keep levels up for Atlantic Canada's less boom-tastic cities like Saint John, Fredericton, Sydney, etc? While slowing it down for cities like Moncton and Halifax where the huge population boom is causing more serious problems with cost of living?

I know there's the Northern Living program or something out west that made it easier to immigrate to smaller cities like Brandon, MB where immigrants don't want to go to as much as they do to places like Winnipeg...

Still, Atlantic Canada overall, Halifax and Moncton included, is probably better off if we can find a way to sustain immigration levels while other places in Canada cool down. I think this will be a distinct problem for the next federal government to solve, but I'm sure it gets difficult when it comes to the Charter and mobility rights which are enshrined into our constitution.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by q12

It's a reality check.

This is the new trajectory. Immigration is slowing in Canada and population growth rates will follow suit.

Here is a visual on the trajectory.

True but it's though to call the last two quarters a trend. In truth one quarter was about average and the most recent the first bad quarter in nearly a decade. Not enough to make most stats nerds blink.

The good news is that all of the Atlantic provinces are growing, including NFL. These high numbers should drop with immigration cuts, but we could continue to see solid growth from other provinces. We continue to be affordable (relatively) and housing is not getting cheaper anywhere.

[DyAm00394]

I see AllNewBrunswick has just published a new article with the headline: “NB Population Growth Cools As Residents Move Out”.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

I see AllNewBrunswick has just published a new article with the headline: “NB Population Growth Cools As Residents Move Out”.

You gotta love these "click bait" titles the so called "journalists" use these days. Oh no...now everyone is moving out! Ahhhh, fire! fire! Province is going backwards not forward! Mayday, mayday!

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the out-migration visibility came from closing the tap on the glut of inbound foreign "students" lead here on work visas which third-party agencies have been promoting. With that door closed by the Federal Government, we probably are seeing a sharp drop in the number of inbound international "students" coming here to offset what is probably historically normal out-migration patterns, which up until now were not the main story as everything was going up.

I don't have time to do the full analysis...but I can see that yes, NB did have a sharp decrease in the last quarter in the inter-provincial migration category, trending into net loss territory, but it is no different in severity than what happened in 2022 on the same same graph. So maybe, as previously noted, one quarter does not a trend make...as this is a downward correction that could follow the same pattern and uptick back up - as it did post 2022.

My point here is that these sensational stories irritate me because they try to paint a picture of doom and gloom just to get readers and advert impressions which drive revenue.

Sigh.

[jonny golden]

Even though the rate of population growth is slowing, there's still growth. There continues to be a very strong demand for housing, as new unit construction has not kept pace with the growth in population over the last several years. I believe we're going to continue to see a lot of residential development projects for the foreseeable future.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by jonny golden

Even though the rate of population growth is slowing, there's still growth. There continues to be a very strong demand for housing, as new unit construction has not kept pace with the growth in population over the last several years. I believe we're going to continue to see a lot of residential development projects for the foreseeable future.

I'm sure once the dust settles all three major cities will continue to grow at a pre-pandemic levels +10-15%, maybe more. IMO the secrets out on affordable living in the Maritimes.

For Moncton that would likely be 3,500-4,000 in growth per year

[Taeolas]

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming more or less if you look at my comments a month or two ago.

That's why I don't really believe that Freddy will QUITE surpass Saint John any time soon. Freddy will come close and they'll be neck and neck, but Saint John's growth seems to have stabilized and started going again while Freddy keeps trudging along. I think I guestimated Freddy growing by 2500/year while Saint John will see comparable growth in 2500-3000 year more or less. But that was all just 'gut feel' numbers.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming more or less if you look at my comments a month or two ago.

That's why I don't really believe that Freddy will QUITE surpass Saint John any time soon. Freddy will come close and they'll be neck and neck, but Saint John's growth seems to have stabilized and started going again while Freddy keeps trudging along. I think I guestimated Freddy growing by 2500/year while Saint John will see comparable growth in 2500-3000 year more or less. But that was all just 'gut feel' numbers.

I mean eventually Oromocto will join Fredericton's CMA, it may take awhile but it's inevitable IMO. Similar scenario with Moncton-Shediac

[jonny golden]

For Moncton that would likely be 3,500-4,000 in growth per year

I think it'll be at least that. A good indicator of growth is the explosion of the industrial parks in Moncton. It seems like they can't expand fast enough. It should keep the construction industry booming for the next several years. The next 2-3 years alone will see several big projects unfold.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by jonny golden

I think it'll be at least that. A good indicator of growth is the explosion of the industrial parks in Moncton. It seems like they can't expand fast enough. It should keep the construction industry booming for the next several years. The next 2-3 years alone will see several big projects unfold.

3,500-4,000 is a good base/minimum number, but I wouldn't be surprise if the new normal is 4,500-5,000 per year though.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

I see AllNewBrunswick has just published a new article with the headline: “NB Population Growth Cools As Residents Move Out”.

Nice to see lots of optimism on this page, however I find it difficult to see how the record growth will continue when looking at the circumstances.

NB's growth was primarily driven from out-migration from other provinces during Covid and a Work from Home boom, combined with record shattering international immigration.

Immigration is going to come to a screeching halt. Employers are demanding employees return to the office. And, international students have been capped by the federal government. These are challenging circumstances for NB to grow under.

Combine that with the fact that the majority of immigrants that come to NB, eventually leave for larger urban centers and it's hard to see how the record growth rates continue. I do think the urban centers will continue to grow, but I wouldn't expect NB to keep pace with Halifax, and other major centers.

[KnoxfordGuy]

New Brunswicks growth was shifting to positive post 2016 census and i believe that will continue. Will we see the population continue to grow by 25,000 people a year? No way. 7-8 thousand is slow and steady. Growth for growth sake is foolish.

[Taeolas]

Yeah NB (and the Maritimes) were already in a growth phase before COVID. COVID just accelerated it.

Looks like we're drifting down to more reasonable numbers as the COVID bump and the student bump work themselves out, but we should keep growing.

[DyAm00394]

A new CBC article:

N.B. loses most pandemic-population gain from other provinces, immigration continues to rise.

New Brunswick gained 40,000 permanent immigrants since 2021, Statistics Canada estimates.

The rush of people moving to New Brunswick from other provinces has slowed down to a trickle, with international immigration continuing to lead as a source of population growth.

Since the pandemic, more people have moved to New Brunswick from other provinces than internationally, but international immigration continues to increase, while interprovincial migration is returning to pre-pandemic levels.

As a whole, New Brunswick gained about 72,400 people since January 2021.

Interprovincial migration — people moving to New Brunswick from other provinces such as Ontario and Alberta — did spike in 2020 and 2021. But Statistics Canada estimates show that New Brunswick is returning to the trend of more people moving out, than in.

Estimates show the province has lost more than 70 per cent of people it gained from interprovincial migration since 2021.

About 65,500 people have moved to New Brunswick from other provinces — the majority from Ontario — since January 2021, according to Statistics Canada.

At the same time, 47,600 moved out of New Brunswick to other provinces, netting a population increase estimate of 17,900 from interprovincial migration.

People who moved to New Brunswick, 2021-2024

Also since the pandemic, New Brunswick has gained about 40,000 permanent immigrants, estimates show. According to Statistics Canada, "immigrants" refers to people who obtained permanent residence in the province.

The statistics agency said some immigrants also later moved to another province during the period of 2021 to 2024, and it does not specifically track that number.

Temporary foreign workers and international students account for a net increase in population of about 25,700.

Statistics Canada defines non-permanent immigrants as people from another country who live in Canada with a work or study permit, or those who have claimed asylum in Canada. They are sometimes also referred to as temporary residents.

In 2005, New Brunswick began seeing deaths outnumber births.

The number fluctuated between positive and negative until late 2016, when the population began steadily decreasing, with no gains from new births. Since 2023, the province lost between 750 and 1,100 people each quarter, as deaths continue to outnumber births.

As more people are again moving to other provinces, immigration continues to be the lead source of population increase.

The New Brunswick government has celebrated population increases because of the positive impact they can have on the economy and maintaining the workforce.

A large population increase without construction keeping pace is also presenting housing challenges. New Brunswickers are also experiencing challenges to accessing health care because of a lack of staff.

The government has committed to addressing these issues and accommodate the increase in population".

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...-most-pandemic-population-gain-1.7425680

[KnoxfordGuy]

As long as we don't shrink, even only gain a few thousand a year, I'm ok.

[mylesmalley]

The tone of that article makes it sound like the province is hemorrhaging people, but growth is always a question of the net of ins minus outs.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

The tone of that article makes it sound like the province is hemorrhaging people, but growth is always a question of the net of ins minus outs.

Yes the tone is intentionally negative. People come and stay, and also people leave and stay.... Both numbers change year to year. There need not be a narrative, just the facts.

I hate how quick the media is to dump on a bad quarter, year, decade, but absolute crickets when there is good news, or reversal of trends. That is until the "good news" turns into perceived "bad news".

Fact is a province that had stagnated grew by nearly 10 percent is a short period of time.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

The tone of that article makes it sound like the province is hemorrhaging people, but growth is always a question of the net of ins minus outs.

Agreed.

Also, it was only the last quarter which showed a net exodus in terms of interprovincial migration. A single quarter does not make a trend.

Still, I suspect that NB's recent growth spurt has come to an end, especially with the crackdown on international migration. A slow growth scenario is now upon us, and, I suspect it will be some time before we see one million New Brunswickers.