PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by PHL10

Overbuild on N. 15th Street:

Wow, that area is suddenly hot.

Hopefully the new infrastructure bill that Biden just passed will allow for Vine Street to be capped, along with perhaps rearranging the interchange bounded by 15th and 16th.

[summersm343]

Yeah, Vine Street Expressway needs to be capped in the worst way. This would be some of the hottest real estate in the city if so.

[summersm343]

Huge Apartment Project Planned Next to West Catholic Prep

Current site:

Yesterday, we learned about yet another Chestnut Street project in the pipeline, just a couple blocks to the west. Please allow us to draw your attention to 4519-45 Chestnut St., a property that’s currently in use by West Catholic Preparatory High School. The school uses this property mostly as a parking lot but there are also a couple of small buildings on the property which we expect would be demolished as part of an upcoming development. The project in question would entail the construction of a new building with 327 apartments and 92 parking spots.

Read/view more here:
http://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-philly/we...-project-planned-next-west-catholic-prep

[summersm343]

Sophy Curson Building Should Pick Up Some Much Needed Height

Current site:


Massing rendering:


Aerial massing rendering:

It seems that the owners of Sophy Curson understand that their property could be used for bigger things. They have submitted a conceptual application to the Historical Commission for a proposal to build an addition on their building and the adjacent structure on Sansom Street. The plans call out a seven-story addition on the 19th Street building and a four-story addition on the Sansom building. Campbell Thomas has worked up a massing study for what we can only assume would be a residential project.

Read/view more here:
http://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-philly/rittenhouse/sophy-curson-building-pick-much-needed-height

[3rd&Brown]

By this time tomorrow we'll know what Philadelphia's population was in the 2020 census. Fingers crossed.

[eixample]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

By this time tomorrow we'll know what Philadelphia's population was in the 2020 census. Fingers crossed.

I have very little sense on what a good or bad number is for Philly (is 1.6 million our target?), but I know I'll spend lots of time on here and other sites geeking out about the population numbers!

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by eixample

I have very little sense on what a good or bad number is for Philly (is 1.6 million our target?), but I know I'll spend lots of time on here and other sites geeking out about the population numbers!

My mental floor is 1.6MM. (Which will be already higher than what their legacy projections indicate).

I'd be ecstatic with anything above 1.625MM.

[Urbanthusiat]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

My mental floor is 1.6MM. (Which will be already higher than what their legacy projections indicate).

I'd be ecstatic with anything above 1.625MM.

I’m going with 1.64 million

[PurpleWhiteOut]

I'm still nervous it will be artificially low from people who vacated town during lockdown and responded putting their address elsewhere. Ditto for the thousands of college students that are normally here potentially putting their parents' houses.

[SEFTA]

I have little confidence in this past census.
There were numerous reasons this was not done with out interference

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by SEFTA

I have little confidence in this past census.
There were numerous reasons this was not done with out interference

I’m still concerned. A lot is based off of the census. PA might want to consider running its own census for things like liquor licenses, redistricting, etc. Then again, our state government sucks.

Important to note is that the state totals had PA gaining something like 400k people. While I certainly don’t think that Pittsburgh and Harrisburg shrunk, I certainly have a good idea of which county probably accounts for most of that gain.

And as much as I love to bring up my feelings on Phoenix “overtaking” us in the estimates, I as much as anyone on here should realize that the census numbers are just that: numbers. We all know what Philadelphia has to offer. We all love our city, and would love it just as much if it had 1.5 or 1.9 million people in it.

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

My mental floor is 1.6MM. (Which will be already higher than what their legacy projections indicate).

I'd be ecstatic with anything above 1.625MM.

Every Census estimate ever taken has underestimated Philadelphia since 1990. Don’t trust the legacy projections. Only take the actual census numbers every 10 years as truth.

Also, for those worried that the numbers may be different because people moved out of the city because of the riots or COVID, the numbers are meant to represent the population as of April 1, 2020. I think that might help assuage those fears.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Important to note is that the state totals had PA gaining something like 400k people. While I certainly don’t think that Pittsburgh and Harrisburg shrunk, I certainly have a good idea of which county probably accounts for most of that gain.

That's my point. While I'm worried about "missing" college students in Philadelphia's number, overall, the state gained many more people than was anticipated.

Obviously, the vast majority of that increase was South and East of I80 and most likely in the Philly Metro, Lehigh Valley, and Capital Region.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

That's my point. While I'm worried about "missing" college students in Philadelphia's number, overall, the state gained many more people than was anticipated.

Obviously, the vast majority of that increase was South and East of I80 and most likely in the Philly Metro, Lehigh Valley, and Capital Region.

Any chance this census could help finally turn PA blue at the State level? How do Ds win 55% of the vote routinely yet we are completely run by rural Rs?

[Mayormccheese]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Any chance this census could help finally turn PA blue at the State level? How do Ds win 55% of the vote routinely yet we are completely run by rural Rs?

This census was conducted by very partisan Republicans and was designed to undercount minority communities. Don’t hold your breath on this census helping Philadelphia or dems in general

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Any chance this census could help finally turn PA blue at the State level? How do Ds win 55% of the vote routinely yet we are completely run by rural Rs?

HAIL nah.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by Redddog

HAIL nah.

Why not? Virginia was a bright red state until the last 5 or so years... are we that demographically different? If Philadelphia and its environs (which are purple to bright blue) continue to grow, and the rest of the state continues to shrink - isn't it simply a matter of time?

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Any chance this census could help finally turn PA blue at the State level? How do Ds win 55% of the vote routinely yet we are completely run by rural Rs?

Remember when the state was supposed to be ungerrymandered?

Strange. I don’t think that’s happened yet. I wonder why…

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Why not? Virginia was a bright red state until the last 5 or so years... are we that demographically different? If Philadelphia and its environs (which are purple to bright blue) continue to grow, and the rest of the state continues to shrink - isn't it simply a matter of time?

The state is run by Republicans. The only reason why it hasn't been a total screw job is because Wolf's veto. Without that, we're certainly not going more blue. Pennsyltucky runs the state outside of Philly and parts of Allegheny Co. And without Wolf and Toomey (one of the only non-idiot repubs), this will get worse before better. With a republican governor, Democrats will never win PA again.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Remember when the state was supposed to be ungerrymandered?

Strange. I don’t think that’s happened yet. I wonder why…

The US House Map was certainly ungerrymandered.

The state district maps remain a mess.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Why not? Virginia was a bright red state until the last 5 or so years... are we that demographically different? If Philadelphia and its environs (which are purple to bright blue) continue to grow, and the rest of the state continues to shrink - isn't it simply a matter of time?

I'd say on average Virginia is a lot more educated, even outside of the DC Metroplex.

That being said, I don't think you're that far off. If the state added 400K people and every county except Allegheny and Centre north and west of I80 shrank by 5-10%, it implies the SE grew by an equivalent amount if not more.

Even at the state level you can't gerrymander that into oblivion.

In 5-10 years, we will look at the Lehigh Valley and it will be solid blue. Lehigh County already is. Northampton is not far behind. And both are growing VERY quickly. In the Capital Region, Dauphin County is proving to be a reliable democratic stronghold and I don't believe Cumberland is far behind. The same dynamics are at play. And again, both are growing very quickly.

I guess the wild card is Lancaster and York. They're growing fast as well, but are reliably more Republican. However, though Biden lost Lancaster, he ate ten points off of Trump's margin relative to Hillary.

With the exception of Bucks County, which is weirdly getting more blue collar (or so it feels), the other suburban counties will just continue to get more and more liberal.