Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[MolsonExport]

You presume to know intent.

A. Our government and their policy should be absolved of their role in Canada's housing crisis. Did I make this claim, here or anywhere else?
B. That our housing crisis isn't still more severe than any of theirs (thanks largely to item A). Did I make this claim, here or anywhere else?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The issue is whether kicking the can down the road is actually going to make it worse for almost everyone in the end, even if it made homeowners feel good about themselves during COVID. Case in point is China where they've kicked the can so many times the bubble is now too catastrophic to reel back from, and the government has run out of tools to keep the bubble afloat.

Of course China “has run out of tools”. They don’t have our main tool: billions of FNSs with a pulse out there who would gladly move to China if only they were allowed to, and who would all want a roof over their head after their arrival in China.

You can’t compare us to China. Our Scheme Of Great Landlord Enrichment has legs

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You're kind of proving my point are you not? Those are all long standing policies and we are told that helicopter money printing by Trudeau is the reason our housing prices exploded. Germany and France did the same or more of that but as you said our home ownership model has been propped up by the government since ww2 and is an inate part of our culture. Germans given checks by the government with nowhere to spend it bought a car went on a trip or spent it otherwise enjoying life. Canadians bought their second third or fourth home.

What is your point?...COVID relief spending in France and Germany was notably lower than Canada as a percentage of GDP. So Trudeau's COVID money helicopter was spinning like crazy relative to these two countries.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

So you agree with Nite. A supply of free/cheap money affects the price of housing regardless of immigration levels.

I’ll repeat:

1) The (im)balance of supply-vs-demand directly affects the monthly amount people will have to pay for housing (both rents and monthly mortgage payments), as people will generally bid up to whatever it takes to not become homeless;.

2) The intake of FNSs directly affects the (im)balance of supply-vs-demand;

3) For a given monthly housing cost, nominal real estate prices and interest rates are directly inversely correlated.

[Nashe]

This is like the parable of the blind men and the elephant, with each of them arguing the animal (housing crisis) is a certain thing based on the part they are touching (most idealistically attached to). It has more than one part (cause) and all are part of the whole issue.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

You presume to know intent.

A. Our government and their policy should be absolved of their role in Canada's housing crisis. Did I make this claim, here or anywhere else?
B. That our housing crisis isn't still more severe than any of theirs (thanks largely to item A). Did I make this claim, here or anywhere else?

Illuminate us then. What was the intent of posting an article about expensive housing in the US alongside a sarcastic quip of blaming Trudeau, without any other other context?

[lio45]

Nite’s posts ARE shit posts. Flat Earthers, Anti-Vaxxers, Supply-And-Demand Deniers, and other such loonies, are all historically greatly frowned upon on this forum. And whenever he’s corrected (by many users, not just me), he’ll just repeat the same shit a week or two later.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Illuminate us then. What was the intent of posting an article about expensive housing in the US alongside a sarcastic quip of blaming Trudeau, without any other other context?

Did Biden manage to double homelessness in two years with a pet Scheme of his…? Don’t think so…

[MolsonExport]

illuminate us then, how the last post is not an example of a red herring.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Illuminate us then. What was the intent of posting an article about expensive housing in the US alongside a sarcastic quip of blaming Trudeau, without any other other context?

I am under no such obligation. I was posting in good faith, with an element of sarcasm (well below that made by many others in this thread), because I have read, here and in many other threads, how the current federal government bears responsibility for most of the escalation in housing prices, despite ample indicators that similar things are happening in other countries.

[Hecate]

Great article on what’s happening in Australia. The liberals knew what they were doing every step of the way when they increased immigration by over a million people a year. They didn’t give a fuck about the average or low income Canadian when choosing to manufacture the housing crisis.they thought about their own portfolios. https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...1b132ee727?amp

[Hecate]

And since Biden took office over 2.4 million cross border migrants have been allowed in, he’s doing the same shit. That’s why housing prices are rising in the states.
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/arti...0the%20country.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The French and German governments do not subsidise mortgagees by guaranteeing MBS bonds, and there is no CHMC equivalent. It's much harder to secure credit in those countries (good luck trying to apply for multiple credit cards there..), so the situations are entirely different.

Probably why renting is viewed as much more of a viable alternative in those countries than in Canada or most of the Anglosphere.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Great article on what’s happening in Australia. The liberals knew what they were doing every step of the way when they increased immigration by over a million people a year. They didn’t give a fuck about the average or low income Canadian when choosing to manufacture the housing crisis.they thought about their own portfolios. https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...1b132ee727?amp

For a piece from News Corp (Rupert Murdoch's empire), once you get past the clickbait initial paragraphs it's a reasonable analysis, and seems familiar to the 'debate' here. I thought this quote was particularly applicable if you switch Australia and Canada. “Immigration is probably not the biggest driver of rising rents right now. It’s probably the second biggest after the fact Australians are demanding more housing.”

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I thought this quote was particularly applicable if you switch Australia and Canada. “Immigration is probably not the biggest driver of rising rents right now. It’s probably the second biggest after the fact Australians are demanding more housing.”

?

What’s the difference between “there are more Australians (i.e. immigration) and they all want housing” and “more Australians equals more demand for more housing in Australia”…?

The biggest driver of rising rents is more demand for housing (a.k.a. immigration) and the second biggest driver of rising rents is more demand for housing (a.k.a. immigration). Wow, thanks Einstein

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

B. That our housing crisis isn't still more severe than any of theirs (thanks largely to item A).

I guess this is how Canada realizes its world class aspirations? By pumping up this country's world class real estate super bubble so Canada becomes the undisputed leader amongst G8 nations for the most out of control and out of whack (versus fundamentals) residential RE prices. The trailblazer of the Trudeau-Freeland School of Economics.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Of course China “has run out of tools”. They don’t have our main tool: billions of FNSs with a pulse out there who would gladly move to China if only they were allowed to, and who would all want a roof over their head after their arrival in China.

You can’t compare us to China. Our Scheme Of Great Landlord Enrichment has legs

Yea it's too bad China restricts its potential by putting significant weight on cultural integration and national unity considerations. If it adopts the utopian policies of Trudeau's post-national state, then China can swing the door wide open for billions of FNSs.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

For a piece from News Corp (Rupert Murdoch's empire), once you get past the clickbait initial paragraphs it's a reasonable analysis, and seems familiar to the 'debate' here. I thought this quote was particularly applicable if you switch Australia and Canada. “Immigration is probably not the biggest driver of rising rents right now. It’s probably the second biggest after the fact Australians are demanding more housing.”

But I thought we were told Australian (and Canadians) weren’t replacing their population organically through births, so how could they be demanding more housing?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hecate

And since Biden took office over 2.4 million cross border migrants have been allowed in, he’s doing the same shit. That’s why housing prices are rising in the states.
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/arti...0the%20country.

Not sure that's a fair assessment of the Biden policy. The article says this:

Most of these individuals are in active removal proceedings in immigration court, in which they can claim asylum as a defense against removal. Even some of Biden’s fellow Democrats have begun advocating for more stringent border control, adding a new dimension to immigration politics in a presidential election year when the issue is sure to be a defining one between the two political parties.

The speeded pace of executive actions taken by the current and last administration is, in part, a response to continued inaction in Congress, which has not passed a major immigration overhaul in nearly three decades.

The US has always had a problem with their sudden border. And they've even built their economy around it. A lot of their wage working class jobs basically rely on migrants. And keeping them illegal seems like a away to keep them shut up about working conditions. Think of what would happen to food production, the service sector and construction in the US if every illegal was deported tomorrow. Our problem is very different.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But I thought we were told Australian (and Canadians) weren’t replacing their population organically through births, so how could they be demanding more housing?

because household growth, (which determines the demand for housing) and population growth are not the same. Household size has continued to fall since 1861, so even if the population stayed the same, you'd need more homes. (That's not factoring in the demand for recreational properties, or second homes - which are all part of the housing demand too).


[Business Council of Alberta showing Statistics Canada data]

The Australian article suggests immigration adds to the demand, but maybe not as much as the Australian demand for more housing.