Statistics Canada Reports II

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nite

it took 2 years for prices to recover to the 2008 levels in Canada from the 2008 correction.


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS

Please stop spamming graphs and begin to apply some critical thinking and analysis to your posts.

The infographic I posted began in 2010, i.e with housing prices in Canada recovering to above their 2008 highs by the time the initial data point was assessed. US housing prices did not recover to their 2006 peak until 2020. Despite this, Canadian housing prices still grew faster than US housing prices by 50% a year.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

Things will probably be much worse when PP is elected. He'll be inheriting a mess that is unlikely to be fixed in 4 years.

The Libs are still actively worsening the crisis right now, so as I keep saying, let’s all get used to the fact that right now, in Canada, housing is cheap and homelessness is low (relative to what we’re eventually going to see).

The timing will really favor the challengers in the next election. PP is polling well right now even with cheap housing and low homelessness, imagine how well he’ll do in 2025 when we’re in a real crisis by then.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by theman23

Please stop spamming graphs and begin to apply some critical thinking and analysis to your posts.

The infographic I posted began in 2010, i.e with housing prices in Canada recovering to above their 2008 highs by the time the initial data point was assessed. US housing prices did not recover to their 2006 peak until 2020. Despite this, Canadian housing prices still grew faster than US housing prices by 50% a year.

You said there wa sno correction in Canadian house prices when there cleary was is the point of my comment
See your original comment below

Originally Posted by theman23

Reminder: The USA (and other countries like Iceland) prices started off from a relative trough due to their correction after 2008, so their growth appears more more significant than if we had looked at a twenty year time span when in fact its more of a return to normalcy. We never had a price correction in 2008 but even despite that, we still have seen housing prices grow 50% faster here than our neighbors to the south despite becoming relatively poorer.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/...es-since-2010/

If this doesn't pass your sniff test, you've likely gone nose blind.

[Nite]

Statscan published their Recent developments in the Canadian economy: Fall 2023 last month.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/.../00006-eng.htm


i will quote what they have to say about household wages, disposable income and debt

Household incomes continue to rise
Household disposable income rose 2.6% as wages and salaries increased at their fastest pace in five quarters. Current dollar spending by households increased by 1.0% as the household savings rate edged above the five percent mark. Both household disposable income and savings remained well above their pre-pandemic levels. Disposable income in the quarter was 21% above its pre-pandemic baseline, while the savings rate, at 5.1%, was 2.3 percentage points higher than in late 2019.

Canadian are seatting on an ever growing mountain of cash, when intrest rates fall in 2024 i expect to see major spending across the board, house prices especially.

[Nashe]

Man, I wonder who is getting these sweet raises. I can only imagine what the average would be if I weren't dragging it down.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Hecate

For higher earners, lower incomes not so much, but will this lead to another increase in inflation? Most likely. lol

Pretty sure wages are increasing the fastest at the low end actually.
Minimum wages increases in 2023 for each province (Percent)

Alb 0%
BC 7.0%
Man 13.3%
NB 7.3%
NFLD 9.5%
NWT 5.6%
NS 10.3%
NT 0%
Ont 6.8%
PEI 9.5%
Que 7.0%
Sask 7.7%
YT 6.8%

https://srv116.services.gc.ca/dimt-w...eCulture=en-CA

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Man, I wonder who is getting these sweet raises. I can only imagine what the average would be if I weren't dragging it down.

Federal indexed pensions are going up 4.8% next year.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Man, I wonder who is getting these sweet raises. I can only imagine what the average would be if I weren't dragging it down.

if you were on minimum wage you got a 7.3% raise this year in New Brunswick

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Nite

if you were on minimum wage you got a 7.3% raise this year in New Brunswick

The phrase "twice small potatoes is still small potatoes" come to mind.

if someone is drowning with a foot of water over their head, but now there is only 5" of water above their head.... yay?

[Nite]

Originally Posted by jonny24

The phrase "twice small potatoes is still small potatoes" come to mind.

if someone is drowning with a foot of water over their head, but now there is only 5" of water above their head.... yay?

I really don't get your point, the poorest New Brunswickers say wages increase at 2x the inflation rate in 2023 and it's not good enough??

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nite

I really don't get your point, the poorest New Brunswickers say wages increase at 2x the inflation rate in 2023 and it's not good enough??

They were drowning before. They would still be drowning. Now, if they suddenly increased the minimum wage to $25/hr, that might actually make a difference.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Nite

I really don't get your point, the poorest New Brunswickers say wages increase at 2x the inflation rate in 2023 and it's not good enough??

It's the second-lowest minimum wage in the country, going from $13.75 to $14.75. A big increase to a small number can still be a small number.

[lio45]

As I mentioned earlier, the availability of bottom-rung housing (SRO room, cheap studio) has completely outcompeted the meager increases to min wage. Low income earners are probably the worst off from the Scheme.

Meanwhile, even on a fixed pension, if you have a free and clear SFH in urban Canada, you’re likely doing okay.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Nite

I really don't get your point, the poorest New Brunswickers say wages increase at 2x the inflation rate in 2023 and it's not good enough??

The poorest New Brunswickers most definitely did not get wages increases of 2x the inflation rate of SRO rooms’ free market rent in Freddy/Moncton/SJ. In practice these people likely got wage decreases. (Unless they’re living in tents on public land — in that case, yes, those ones did get a net increase in buying power.)

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

It's the second-lowest minimum wage in the country, going from $13.75 to $14.75. A big increase to a small number can still be a small number.

Indeed. My shitty mandated 1% max increase to salary band and 3-4% merit increase (until I'm maxed out within the band) add up to a LOT more than a much higher percentage to minimum wage...

Nobody is able to comfortably rent on minimum wage these days unless they have been in a rent-controlled place for quite some time.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Federal indexed pensions are going up 4.8% next year.

And so are the COP payments employers have to make.

[thewave46]

There's an art to being obtuse.

One starts with a preconceived goal, then disregards any information that contradicts the achievement of the goal. Obscuring via averaging was always a fun one I observed - "Look at our decent average turn around time!"

Except for those outlier points that gummed up the works that never got looked into. A 5% defective rate can be presented as a 95% success rate. Nailed it! Pat on the back all around!

Or the continually rising average grades of high-school students. They gotta be smarter today, their grades went up! Or marking standards fell precipitously.

So, when one drills into StatCan data, the average looks sort of good given how they weight things, where shelter and food are only accounting for 45% of a household budget. Low apparent inflation in airfare, or the end of the one-time pop in new vehicle prices brings down the overall rate.

More worryingly, if the overall inflation continues to be driven by high increase in the cost of shelter/food (as it seems to be) and not the other 55% weighting, next year's minimum wage increases will be much lower. This is because the overall rate will reflect a disproportionate weighting against what those on minimum wage spend their money on. If one is spending a larger proportion of their income on shelter and food as is common for households below the 50th percentile, they'll see more of their income devoted to survival. Yes, eventually the basket changes, but that's a lagging indicator.

Even when using a term as vague as 'shelter' obscures things. People with a fixed mortgage (i.e. those with higher incomes) brings down the average increase in the cost of shelter if they bought below the inflation pop/interest rate increases and don't have to renew for a few years. Again, if one is looking at the bottom, rent is a more accurate indicator of shelter costs.

Maybe rent will magically stabilize with the huge glut of supply and low demand situation Canada finds itself at today. Or the bargaining position of those below the 50th percentile will improve as unemployment ticks upwards.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by theman23

Things will probably be much worse when PP is elected. He'll be inheriting a mess that is unlikely to be fixed in 4 years.

Already removing all blame for his whole first term. You really go to bat for this guy.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Already removing all blame for his whole first term. You really go to bat for this guy.

Well, JT kept crowing about Harper for at least the first six years he was in office.

And Harper gave JT a ship a lot less leaky than the one JT will be giving PP.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Even when using a term as vague as 'shelter' obscures things. People with a fixed mortgage (i.e. those with higher incomes) brings down the average increase in the cost of shelter if they bought below the inflation pop/interest rate increases and don't have to renew for a few years.

A lot of households have no mortgage or rent payments. Other people are stuck paying half of their income on housing. It's likely a multimodal distribution that the average doesn't capture well, with the largest impact falling on the poorest people who don't own property outright.

It's just anecdotal but the two biggest groups I know are 50+ folks who own their own housing and have a low labour force participation rate and younger 20 and 30 somethings who spend around half of their money on rent even though they have roommates.