Winnipeg CMA Population in 5 Years: Predictions - Page 8

jmt18325 · #**141** Posted **Sep 30, 2009, 12:08 AM**

At this rate, we'll be at 1.25M before long. It's a nice milestone.

drew · #**142** Posted **Sep 30, 2009, 2:05 PM**

Not to accuse the Winnipeg Sun of pushing their own agenda, but I find it's interesting that the record population growth in Winnipeg/Manitoba is front and centre in the WFP, but in the Sun there is only a blurb about the stats-can info and nothing specific about Manitoba.

I guess exposing their readers to news other than crime for Winnipeg is too much to ask for. Can't have the folks thinking that this might be an OK place to be I suppose!

thurmas · #**143** Posted **Sep 30, 2009, 2:57 PM**

by my somewhat conservative estimations say the province adds 20,000 people every year and with winnipeg roughly 60% of the provincial population winnipeg would receive 12,000 more people a year therefore in 5 years time with winnipeg currently sitting at 739,000 people in 5 years time we should hit the 800k mark and that's on somewhat conservative estimates maybe in 4 years time? its nice that we are growing again but this is just making up for the lost decade in manitoba which was the 90's probably the worst decade in manitoba history with no growth, rotting downtown, loss of the jets and the flood of the century.

jmt18325 · #**144** Posted **Sep 30, 2009, 11:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drew

Not to accuse the Winnipeg Sun of pushing their own agenda, but I find it's interesting that the record population growth in Winnipeg/Manitoba is front and centre in the WFP, but in the Sun there is only a blurb about the stats-can info and nothing specific about Manitoba.

The Sun loves to hate everything.

vid · #**145** Posted **Oct 1, 2009, 7:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurmas

the province adds 20,000 people every year and with winnipeg roughly 60% of the provincial population winnipeg would receive 12,000 more people a year

You really think the immigrants will be distributed that evenly? I think Winnipeg would get something closer to 80% of new people.

grumpy old man · #**146** Posted **Oct 1, 2009, 11:56 AM**

I think you might be surprised vid. Many of the new immigrants are German and are purposely moving to southern Manitoba. That part of the province is growing in leaps and bounds.

That said it would not surprise me if 65-70% of the immigrants settled in Winnipeg.

drew · #**147** Posted **Oct 1, 2009, 4:57 PM**

^ I'd actually assume something like 50%. The nominee program really aids towns like Morden, Steinbach, Winkler, etc.

ILYR · #**148** Posted **Oct 1, 2009, 6:30 PM**

According to the new Destination Winnipeg quarterly economic release Winnipeg metropolitan area stands at 732,600. In 2008 a 1.3% increase (~10,000), with a projected increase of 1.3% for 2009.

http://www.destinationwinnipeg.ca/up...09-pdf_389.pdf

dennis · #**149** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 7:09 PM**

Did you know that if you draw a box around Winnipeg: i.e. a line just north of Gimli going east to west, a line just east of Portage la Prairie (going north to south, The Ontario Border (feel free to not include Whiteshell and Nopiming parks-since very few live there, and the U.S. border. Now go to statcan community profiles for the 2006 census and add the census districts (under D) and add the populations, 870,100 people live in roughly that area. Now take into account that most of the fastest growing and wealthiest communities in Manitoba are located in this area, and that in 2006, it was 76 percent of the population, and 76% of the change in the MB population between the current estimate of (1,221,964) minus 2006 (1,148,401) X 0.76 = ~56,000, I predict the current population of this area is around 930,000 (870,100 + 56,000). I included Districts 1,2,3 and 9-14. This in my opinion is a relatively good market estimate for IKEA and NHL and sports fans to attend at least weekend games and shopping.
(Note, I am ill and using what time I have in this very productive study).

dennis · #**150** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 7:13 PM**

Bibliography

http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss/Maps...etrieve_cd.cfm
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...de=46&Letter=D

I would just like everyone's opinion as to how many people live within 30 km, or 100 km from the city boundaries. Or within say a one hour drive or a half hour drive.

Boreal · #**151** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 7:23 PM**

Fine work, dennis. I agree that those are very reasonable figures to use as a market estimate for commercial endeavors.

To bust this poll loose we have to add about 21,000 people in the next roughly 4.5 years or so. I imagine that even by conservative standards, we double that number. 42,000 + 732,600 = ~775,000. Thus, busting 760,000 is a virtual given. 800,000 is probably a stretch, barring a sizable up tick in immigration numbers and/or returnees. I think our current growth trends with only small (and perhaps expected) increases could notch us somewhere near to 800,000.

What's particularly interesting is that 750,000 - a mark sometimes used a threshold number in determining abilities of a population district - is JUST around the corner. Perhaps then, it is no surprise that with that 'magic' number ready to rear it's head, we are seeing everything from CentrePort, to retail booms, etc. Of course, I could very well be wrong. Interesting numbers nonetheless though.

1ajs · #**152** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 8:00 PM**

alot of the outlieing communities the people work in winnipeg and the people who work in the communities live in winnipeg not sure why the hell this is but it is... anyone every noticed that??

dennis · #**153** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 8:07 PM**

Steinbach, Hannover, Ste. Anne will have a combined population of 30,000 to 35,000 by the next census (only 20 to 30 mins from Winnipeg). Rockwood, Stonewall and Tuelon (15,000 to 16,000 - most live less than 20 minutes from North Winnipeg). St Andrews, Selkirk 20,000 or more, 20 to 30 minutes from Winnipeg. Another 2000 or so in the Winnipeg beach and surrounding communities.

Note all of these are about 30 to 40 minutes or less from Winnipeg, and not included in Winnipeg CMA.

vid · #**154** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 9:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1ajs

alot of the outlieing communities the people work in winnipeg and the people who work in the communities live in winnipeg not sure why the hell this is but it is... anyone every noticed that??

It happens here, too. It's weird. At least 5% of our city's civil employees live in another municipality.

Boreal · #**155** Posted **Oct 9, 2009, 9:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dennis

Steinbach, Hannover, Ste. Anne will have a combined population of 30,000 to 35,000 by the next census (only 20 to 30 mins from Winnipeg). Rockwood, Stonewall and Tuelon (15,000 to 16,000 - most live less than 20 minutes from North Winnipeg). St Andrews, Selkirk 20,000 or more, 20 to 30 minutes from Winnipeg. Another 2000 or so in the Winnipeg beach and surrounding communities.

Note all of these are about 30 to 40 minutes or less from Winnipeg, and not included in Winnipeg CMA.

I've long considered St. Andrews and Selkirk part of Winnipeg, but I'm in the minority on that one, so I don't usually use their population numbers as part of any of my Winnipeg CMA population musings. However, as you point out, it is most definitely true that when you include some legitimate bedroom communities - and extrapolate over 4.5 years - that 800,000 would be a number well in the rear view mirror.

newflyer · #**156** Posted **Oct 10, 2009, 1:12 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boreal

I've long considered St. Andrews and Selkirk part of Winnipeg, but I'm in the minority on that one, so I don't usually use their population numbers as part of any of my Winnipeg CMA population musings. However, as you point out, it is most definitely true that when you include some legitimate bedroom communities - and extrapolate over 4.5 years - that 800,000 would be a number well in the rear view mirror.

The Winnipeg Capital Region includes Selkirk and St.Andrews ... and is considered a part of the regional metropolitan area when regional planning issues are considered.

Selkirk is technically not a part of Winnipeg's CMA, due to the level of industry in Selkirk, which results in its own CMA.
The Winnipeg Capital Region is around 775,000 people.

Winnipeg Capital Region

Source: Manitoba Gov

I would definately consider Selkirk a part of Greater Winnipeg.

Boreal · #**157** Posted **Oct 10, 2009, 3:45 AM**

Some locations on that map (Grand Beach, Teulon, etc.) are a bit extreme, but for what I consider to be "CMA" (although, obviously not CMA in the technical sense) would be everything on that map from the southern most points up to just north of Selkirk/Stonewall. I don't consider anything east of highway 12 as "CMA" in my mind either. Anyways, this is all semantics. The capital region map is interesting, and perhaps those numbers in some ways are more appropriate than CMA numbers, since realistically, anything east of highway 12 and north of Selkirk/Stonewall in that capital region map amounts to probably about 0.5% of the would be capital region population or less.

newflyer · #**158** Posted **Oct 10, 2009, 4:20 AM**

The reason Grand Beach and Tuelon are included is they are a part of the rural municipalities (St.Clemens and St. Andrew) of the capital region. The region is not divided randomly, but by % of population of surrounding municipalities who commute to the city for work. People do actually commute from Tuelon, which is less than 30 minutes from the city of Winnipeg, but more actually commute to Selkirk to work, hense its a part of the Selkirk CMA and not Winnipeg. The reality is its all a part of the Winnipeg Capital Region.

The capital region is purely decided by population, utility demands and transportation paterns, as a means of planning infrastructure for the region. It is acknowledged that a mosaic patern of different plans is not effective or cost efficient and would not benefit the Greater Winnipeg area.

Jets4Life · #**159** Posted **Oct 15, 2009, 9:21 AM**

I really don't understand CMA boundaries. In Edmonton, I worked on an oil spill project in Wabumen,AB, over an hour drive from Edmonton city limits, yet Winnipeg Beach is a 45 minute drive to Winnipeg, but is not included in the CMA. You can't tell me that more people from Wabumen (pop. 615) commute to Edmonton than people from Winnipeg Beach (pop. 1,100) commute to Winnipeg.

Not to mention Selkirk (pop. 9,700) is only a 20 minute drive from Winnipeg, yet is not included in the CMA.

Jets4Life · #**160** Posted **Oct 15, 2009, 9:26 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by newflyer

People do actually commute from Tuelon, which is less than 30 minutes from the city of Winnipeg, but more actually commute to Selkirk to work, hense its a part of the Selkirk CMA and not Winnipeg. The reality is its all a part of the Winnipeg Capital Region.

I disagree. Winnipeg has roughly 65x the population of Selkirk, so there are probably 80x the amount of jobs in Winnipeg compared to Selkirk. The reason? Winnipeg is gaining jobs, while Selkirk (a steeltown) is losing jobs and population. it is far likelier that people who live outside of Selkirk (i.e. Lockport, etc) will be commuting to Winnipeg, not Selkirk...