Canada's 4th city

[AuxTown]

The actual breakdown of the Ottawa workforce (from 2016)


https://ofl.ca/wp-content/uploads/HU...OTTAWA-POM.pdf

I think many forget that, in addition to our federal government workforce, we have 2 large universities (and multiple large colleges), a robust and growing tech sector and is a large regional healthcare hub.

Tech centres in Canada
Toronto: 289,700 tech workers in 2021, up 88,900 (44 per cent) since 2016.
Montreal: 148,900 tech workers in 2021, up 31,200 (27 per cent) since 2016.
Vancouver: 115,400 tech workers in 2021, up 44,460 (63 per cent) since 2016.
Ottawa: 81,200 tech workers in 2021, up 14,800 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Calgary: 40,600 tech workers in 2021, up 7,400 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Quebec City: 35,700 tech workers in 2021, up 10,700 (43 per cent) since 2016.
Edmonton: 32,400 tech workers in 2021, up 9,200 (40 per cent) since 2016.
Waterloo Region: 24,000 tech workers in 2021, up 1,800 (eight per cent) since 2016.
(from https://communitech.ca/technews/cana...p-50-list.html)

Ottawa would be the 4th city to me just based on geography. Within a 600km radius of Ottawa (a reasonable drive or a short flight) there are over 50 million people. For Calgary, it is about 7 million.

[DesignerGuy]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

The actual breakdown of the Ottawa workforce (from 2016)


https://ofl.ca/wp-content/uploads/HU...OTTAWA-POM.pdf

I think many forget that, in addition to our federal government workforce, we have 2 large universities (and multiple large colleges), a robust and growing tech sector and is a large regional healthcare hub.

Tech centres in Canada
Toronto: 289,700 tech workers in 2021, up 88,900 (44 per cent) since 2016.
Montreal: 148,900 tech workers in 2021, up 31,200 (27 per cent) since 2016.
Vancouver: 115,400 tech workers in 2021, up 44,460 (63 per cent) since 2016.
Ottawa: 81,200 tech workers in 2021, up 14,800 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Calgary: 40,600 tech workers in 2021, up 7,400 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Quebec City: 35,700 tech workers in 2021, up 10,700 (43 per cent) since 2016.
Edmonton: 32,400 tech workers in 2021, up 9,200 (40 per cent) since 2016.
Waterloo Region: 24,000 tech workers in 2021, up 1,800 (eight per cent) since 2016.
(from https://communitech.ca/technews/cana...p-50-list.html)

Intersting stats. Thanks for posting. I would have thought Waterloo had more tech employment than Ottawa but i suppose when population is factored in, would be similar percentage of the work force?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Given how extremely unaffordable housing is in the GTA, I feel like Ottawa's population can't actually really decline. A scenario where Ottawa shrinks because of federal austerity is one where the city's housing prices will fall and lots of office space will suddenly become available, which will attract "overflow" businesses & people priced out of the GTA, and the problem will correct itself.

For well established major cities in growing countries, the shrinking of a primary industry is a fantastic opportunity for creative destruction & regeneration.

Yeah, it’s the “cure for low oil prices is low oil prices” principle.

Applied to today’s Canadian context, it’s “the cure for cheap urban real estate anywhere in Canada is cheap urban real estate”.

For example, Halifax was cheap — until it was discovered that it was cheap. (Which didn’t take long.) And now it’s not.

[DesignerGuy]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yeah, it’s the “cure for low oil prices is low oil prices” principle.

Applied to today’s Canadian context, it’s “the cure for cheap urban real estate anywhere in Canada is cheap urban real estate”.

For example, Halifax was cheap — until it was discovered that it was cheap. (Which didn’t take long.) And now it’s not.

Except Ottawa average single family home prices are in the 800K range now, not exactly considered "affordable"

[RHINO]

As far as Ottawa stats go, I think those are probably VERY different now nearly 9 years later. We all know how much the government has ballooned compared to 2016.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by DesignerGuy

Except Ottawa average single family home prices are in the 800K range now, not exactly considered "affordable"

So is Calgary, where it has been widely reported that people are moving for cheaper house prices. Up 9.1% in a year. Townhouses are still cheaper, but saw an 18.1% increase in a year.

[DesignerGuy]

Originally Posted by Changing City

So is Calgary, where it has been widely reported that people are moving for cheaper house prices. Up 9.1% in a year. Townhouses are still cheaper, but saw an 18.1% increase in a year.

Thats a big increase.Likely won't be long until Calgary becomes as expensive as Ontario cities. With an increase in population of almost 100,000 in a single year, demand for housing must be next level?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by DesignerGuy

Except Ottawa average single family home prices are in the 800K range now, not exactly considered "affordable"

1overcosc's point was that EVEN if Federal employment crashes to the point that Ottawa would normally revert back to being cheap (if isolated in a vacuum), that new emerging cheapness won't last nor really happen in reality, as the city would be buoyed by newcomers arriving to take advantage of it.

And as ChangingCity says, $800k can well "be affordable"; it's all relative. ($800k for a well-located SFH is certainly "affordable", when one is coming from Toronto or Vancouver.)

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by RHINO

As far as Ottawa stats go, I think those are probably VERY different now nearly 9 years later. We all know how much the government has ballooned compared to 2016.

Maybe, but it had barely changed from 2016 to 2021. Public admin went from 21% to 22%. Professional went from 10% to 12%. Health went from 11% to 12%. Accommodation dropped from 7% to 5%. The remaining categories didn't really change.

EDIT
The Labour Force data (for the larger Ottawa economic region) shows that the proportion of public admin was 19% in 2021 and 21% in 2024.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ottawa is too far away to attract GTA overflow. And with GO RER coming online progressively over the next 10 years, Hamilton, KWC, Oshawa and Barrie are all decent alternatives to GTA proper. If HFR happens, Peterborough is going to become unrecognizable. And beyond that there's London and Kingston. Ottawa should be a reliever metro to Montreal. But that doesn't work since Montreal is cheaper.

Demand from people relocating from Ontario has been cited as a driver of our price increases here in NS so I find it hard to believe that a major city directly in Ontario wouldn't be affected by relocation from the dominant population center.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by RHINO

As far as Ottawa stats go, I think those are probably VERY different now nearly 9 years later. We all know how much the government has ballooned compared to 2016.

Actually, what’s interesting is the explosion of tech jobs - Ottawa boasts the highest concentration of tech workers as a % of population in North America … at 13% surpassing San Fran an 11%. Tech employment now exceeds 94k. Good read: https://obj.ca/ottawa-moves-up-in-cb...-break-top-10/

Most people forget that some of Canada’s largest tech companies are here … Shopify, kinaxis, Calian, mitel, solace, solink, assent compliance, rewind, field effect, Ross video, full script, fellow, knak etc…and 90% of telecom/internet infrastructure/5G wireless r&d in canada happens on Ottawa (Kanata).. Nokia, Ciena, Ericsson, Cisco, Ribbon, etc

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by sgera

Actually, what’s interesting is the explosion of tech jobs - Ottawa boasts the highest concentration of tech workers as a % of population in North America … at 13% surpassing San Fran an 11%. Tech employment now exceeds 94k. Good read: https://obj.ca/ottawa-moves-up-in-cb...-break-top-10/

Most people forget that some of Canada’s largest tech companies are here … Shopify, kinaxis, Calian, mitel, solace, solink, assent compliance, rewind, field effect, Ross video, full script, fellow, knak etc…and 90% of telecom/internet infrastructure/5G wireless r&d in canada happens on Ottawa (Kanata).. Nokia, Ciena, Ericsson, Cisco, Ribbon, etc

Of that first list the only one I've even heard of is shopify. Guess the others are either not very big, or are suppliers to other companies and don't have much of a public brand presence.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by lio45

Montreal is adding more people per year than Vancouver, in other words the population gap between the two is increasing every passing year. i.e. Montreal is growing and leaving Vancouver behind.

Growth rates are medieval thinking; I guess our homo sapiens brains are basically wired to assume that everyone stays their entire life in the same village in which they were born and population growth only comes from the rate at which the locals are having babies.

The only useful use of growth rate these days (in a country like Canada) is to measure approximate infrastructure strain.

Vancouver is trending towards adding more people per year than Montreal. In 50 years Vancouver and Montreal will probly be close to the same population.

[RHINO]

No, I had no idea about the tech industry in Ottawa.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by logan5

Vancouver is trending towards adding more people per year than Montreal. In 50 years Vancouver and Montreal will probly be close to the same population.

I actually think lio might be right in this case. Metropolitan growth rates are so dependent on fluctuating factors like the local economy and national immigration policy which are notoriously difficult to predict off into the future. Yes trends can remain stable long term, but expecting the trending growth rates in two different metro areas to retain stable for that long is a gamble.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I actually think lio might be right in this case. Metropolitan growth rates are so dependent on fluctuating factors like the local economy and national immigration policy which are notoriously difficult to predict off into the future. Yes trends can remain stable long term, but expecting the trending growth rates in two different metro areas to retain stable for that long is a gamble.

Yes, it's not exactly a like-for-like comparison. Metro Montreal is 1.6 times bigger than Metro Vancouver, and had 1.6 times the population in 2021. (The population densities are therefore almost identical; 919/km2 in Metro Montreal and 918/km2 in Metro Vanouver.

The growth is interesting too; in the 1980s and 1990s Vancouver grew more than Montreal, so the 40 year growth in population is very similar; 1.49m in Montreal, 1.48m in Vancouver. Montreal saw greater growth in the 2000s and 2010s, although the last census (2016 to 2021) saw Montreal add 192,800 and Vancouver 179,400, so much closer again. And the new estimates say Montreal added 172,000 in 2 years since the census, and Vancouver 200,400.

It does seem to be a pretty even race (if it was a competition).

[Hackslack]

Population
1 Toronto
2 Montreal
3 Vancouver
4 Calgary

Head Offices
1 Toronto
2 Montreal
3 Vancouver
4 Calgary

Canada’s busiest airports Total Passengers
1 Toronto (44,800,000)
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.
.
2 Vancouver (25,000,000)
3 Montreal (21,000,000)
4 Calgary (18,500,000)
.
.
.
.
5 Edmonton (8,500,000)
.
.
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6 Ottawa (4,100,000)


Safe to say Calgary is a lock at #4

[sgera]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Of that first list the only one I've even heard of is shopify. Guess the others are either not very big, or are suppliers to other companies and don't have much of a public brand presence.

Well Mitel is one of Canada’s oldest tech company’s and is a global leader in enterprise communications and has billions in revenue annually. Kinaxis is worth over 4Bin market cap on the TSX and is a global leader in supply chain technology. Ross video is going IPO next year and enables practically all the tech needed to broadcast news and sports … including 360 cameras… list goes on. If you go back in the history of Canadian tech.. most of the well known and successful companies came out of Ottawa … nortel, Corel, Newbridge, jdsu, cognos .. list goes on. Unfortunately, many of these companies got bought over and no longer exist.

[harls]

This is just turning into another city vs. city pissing match.

Just like the good ol' days.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by DesignerGuy

Intersting stats. Thanks for posting. I would have thought Waterloo had more tech employment than Ottawa but i suppose when population is factored in, would be similar percentage of the work force?

Ottawa is tops in North America in terms of percentage of workforce employed in tech (“talent concentration”).

https://capitalmag.ca/2023/11/24/ott...resh-founders/

https://www.investottawa.ca/blog/ott...lass-tech-hub/

https://www.investontario.ca/spotlig...shows-strength