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  #15721  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2025, 9:28 PM
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Call today to receive up to 8 weeks free!!

Note: No Availability -- but don't sleep on this opportunity because one of these days.....


The Vixen -- 1150 E Colfax


Courtesy Kairoi Residential
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  #15722  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 2:35 PM
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From High-rise to Mid-rise

Downtown law firm moving closer to Union Station
March 10, 2025 By Matt Geiger -- BusinessDen
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Union Station is adding a new law firm to its office docket. Jackson Lewis, a labor and employment law firm, told BusinessDen it's moving to new digs on the ninth floor of 1400 Wewatta St. in a 17,400-square-foot office
From the 26th floor of Hines' 950 17th Street to a lower altitude in an Opus Group project at 1400 Wewatta St. completed in Dec. 2008.

1400 Wewatta


Courtesy Opus Group
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  #15723  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 2:43 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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The Vixen -- 1150 E Colfax


Courtesy Kairoi Residential
This is the kind of broken up massing I wish we could see more of. I also wish the City would incentivize this type of massing somewhere. They do incentivize the point tower stuff (wrong) but this kind of massing in the 5-10 story range is much more doable and the city could actually move the needle both on unit production (more density via bonuses) and in the architectural quality by avoiding the cruise ships we see everywhere. It's a win win win.
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  #15724  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 3:00 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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"Talking past each other"

means when two people are seemingly having a conversation but are actually discussing different topics or interpretations of the same topic, without realizing it, leading to misunderstanding and a lack of effective communication; essentially, they are not truly connecting on the same level despite speaking at the same time.

Could I correctly assume that getting rid of Federal regulations that contributes up to 40% of the cost of construction would be a good thing?

By deduction the same would apply at the local level, would it not?


I can't agree with this but admittedly I can't point to the information necessary to confirm my supposition. But I'm gonna guess that what works (or doesn't) in the Quad Cities might be both similar and different from what works (or doesn't) in Ogden Utah. Or on a local level what works for Scottsdale isn't the same as what works for Phoenix because each city has/had different objectives.

With respect to the City of Denver, everybody talks about affordability lacking including the Denver City Council. Then the DCC creates all sorts of rules and regs that make housing (and everything else) LESS affordable.

When it comes to making housing more affordable there are many factors. Cost of construction and cost of land are two biggies. Cost of land goes to "desirability" which is one of the key components. Housing in less desirable areas tends to cost less. Eh, amazing. Desirability also keeps demand high; higher demand means higher prices. And so it goes.
I don't think we're speaking past each other. What I'm saying is I don't much care what local municipalities have to say anymore and if anyone under the age of 40 does, I hope they wake up soon. Local municipalities have been getting this wrong for 40 years and in doing so, they are significantly decreasing the quality of life for all generations following X'ers. The boomers and X'ers have created this housing disaster and I'm not sure most people understand what a conundrum we, as a nation, are in from a housing cost perspective.

I'll put it into perspective for you. If we were to build housing at the fastest historical pace on record for three years in a row, it would still barely make a dent in the cost of housing. Imagine 2024 delivery levels x2 (adjusted for population growth) for three years. Would housing costs fall moderately in the short term? Yeah, absolutely - maybe 10-15%. Would they fall to a historical level of affordability that boomers and X'ers generally enjoyed relative to income and interest rates? Nope.

My position is government at all levels have been regulating the hell out of our built environment and it's been detrimental to the American experience overall. It's way past time for a significant course correction. I've advocated for it before and I'll do it again...the feds should withhold federal funding of all types to local municipalities who don't ease the regulatory burden.

Fun fact - local permitting, planning, impact, etc types of fees add approximately 10% to the total cost of a project (low end estimate). Simply removing that cost burden could bring down the cost of occupancy of all types. Here's the math:

300 unit project costs $100,000,000 for round math. Take $10 million out of costs and your 8% required return on cost for the two comparable projects is $8mm and $7.2mm. That $800,000 delta on 300 units equates to $222 per month in lower rent (for condos, if we built them, it would be a bit less than this since interest rates are a bit lower).
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  #15725  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 6:43 PM
AHS1983 AHS1983 is offline
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Boomers are sitting on $82 trillion in wealth, with a lot in their real estate holdings.

Those properties will be passed on in the next < 20 years, as will all their other wealth.

What will that do to housing?
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  #15726  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 7:32 PM
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While you are right on the one hand; otoh you neglect the most powerful influence that is the "Market Driven" component
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Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
My position is government at all levels have been regulating the hell out of our built environment and it's been detrimental to the American experience overall. It's way past time for a significant course correction. I've advocated for it before and I'll do it again...the feds should withhold federal funding of all types to local municipalities who don't ease the regulatory burden.

Fun fact - local permitting, planning, impact, etc types of fees add approximately 10% to the total cost of a project (low end estimate). Simply removing that cost burden could bring down the cost of occupancy of all types. Here's the math:
No doubt over-regulation is bad in many ways and ultimately for affordability. We should acknowledge that not all regulation is bad though.

Upon Review - at at the risk of repeating myself:

The Great Recession/Financial Crisis was really nasty, kind of like the 'day the world changed' forever.

Historically, a surge in starter home development is what helped bring the economy out of recessions previously - but not this time. The other piece was "urbanism" became popular pretty much everywhere even if it looked different in different places. Overnight and over the next decade we have become a "Renter Nation" especially focused on urban centers.

There was NO (or very little) demand for new starter homes 'out in the suburbs' so builders built to the demand for move-up and/or luxury housing. When referring to a housing shortage the biggest imbalance is with single-family homes. That means sprawl other than for infill lots being available; but most infill became the target for multifamily and not so much single family homes. A footnote is that despite the 'crisis' land prices dropped little if any because land was largely controlled by 'land bankers' with no motivation to sell at discounted prices.

Such market driven 'events' are way more powerful than simplistic supply/demand analysis.
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  #15727  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2025, 8:43 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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...There was NO (or very little) demand for new starter homes 'out in the suburbs' so builders built to the demand for move-up and/or luxury housing. When referring to a housing shortage the biggest imbalance is with single-family homes. That means sprawl other than for infill lots being available; but most infill became the target for multifamily and not so much single family homes. A footnote is that despite the 'crisis' land prices dropped little if any because land was largely controlled by 'land bankers' with no motivation to sell at discounted prices.

Such market driven 'events' are way more powerful than simplistic supply/demand analysis.
Simplistic, not quite. The Great Recession created a gaping chasm in the land development market. Land bankers don't deliver lots, they simply buy and sit waiting for the horizontal developers. Prior to the great recession, homebuilders developed land themselves. So many of them got caught in the great recession they dropped land development entirely. Most still haven't picked it back up almost two decades later. The great recession also took out nearly every single pure land developer...they came back at a snail's pace post great recession and quite honestly remain a snail's pace from every metric comparing to historic norms.

Yes those market driven events have huge effects but at this point, the biggest driver is regulation, zoning, cost of materials, cost of labor. Two of these things can profoundly decrease the cost of our built environment. The other two, materials/labor, are much harder. China no longer growing and building ghost cities will be good news for material prices over the next two decades. We're totally screwed on labor.
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  #15728  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 12:33 AM
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Last night I visited "sorry gorgeous", the rooftop bar at the new Novel apartment building on Walnut Street. It has my favorite view of the city for now. If you haven't been, go check it out. I think the end of Walnut Street once fully built out will be a hot spot of activity.
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  #15729  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 3:58 AM
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Originally Posted by DenvertoLA View Post
Last night I visited "sorry gorgeous", the rooftop bar at the new Novel apartment building on Walnut Street. It has my favorite view of the city for now. If you haven't been, go check it out. I think the end of Walnut Street once fully built out will be a hot spot of activity.
Very Impressive !








Images courtesy NOVEL RiNo/Sorry Gorgeous
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  #15730  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 4:24 AM
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Originally Posted by AHS1983 View Post
Boomers are sitting on $82 trillion in wealth, with a lot in their real estate holdings.

Those properties will be passed on in the next < 20 years, as will all their other wealth.

What will that do to housing?
Didn't get far b/c of the paywall but with respect to all that wealth... an impressive amount will be doled out to various charities etc. For example one of NPR's largest donors was the McDonald's heiress. Lots is gifted to universities.

No doubt there will be ample money to boost places like Vail/Aspen and other trophy resorts. But on the whole it won't make much difference once it all gets scattered around. Worth noting is that much of inherited wealth will go for productive purposes of one sort or another.

--------------------------------

Well Said
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Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
Yes those market driven events have huge effects but at this point, the biggest driver is regulation, zoning, cost of materials, cost of labor. Two of these things can profoundly decrease the cost of our built environment. The other two, materials/labor, are much harder. China no longer growing and building ghost cities will be good news for material prices over the next two decades. We're totally screwed on labor.
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  #15731  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 12:32 PM
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The last ten years
Quote:
Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
Prior to the great recession, homebuilders developed land themselves. So many of them got caught in the great recession they dropped land development entirely. Most still haven't picked it back up almost two decades later. The great recession also took out nearly every single pure land developer...they came back at a snail's pace post great recession and quite honestly remain a snail's pace from every metric comparing to historic norms.
Take your pick; either blame Team Obama or blame Millennials.

Why housing affordability keeps getting worse
3/11/2025 By Emily Peck -- Axios

There's an interesting chart of price appreciation with this heading:

"Change in existing home prices since 2015, by price level"

The useful part of this chart shows the cost/price appreciation which started to accelerate middle of 2010's and took off in 2020 when COVID out of the blue had Millennials scrambling to buy homes.

The Emotional Toll of the Great Recession

After Obama was elected but before he was even sworn in, the economy did a quick and deep dive. Is it any wonder that Millennials, the coming of age young adults, now believed that buying a home was NOT such a great idea. With little demand from young adults to buy a home, why on earth would builders build what nobody wanted?

Even in Phoenix where building condos was not a problem, builders opted to build apartments instead. Why? Simply because the demand was strong and making money from building apartments was easy peasy in comparison to building either condos or single family homes.

The problem with data, charts and graphs is that they don't talk, there's no context, so it's easy to miss the Cause and Effect for why things happen.
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  #15732  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 3:23 PM
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WOAH WITH THE REVISIONIST HISTORY.

The great recession was due to the housing crash that started in 2007, even if much of the crisis played out in 2008. Obama was elected in 2008. Good lord.
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  #15733  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 4:08 PM
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WOAH WITH THE REVISIONIST HISTORY.

The great recession was due to the housing crash that started in 2007, even if much of the crisis played out in 2008. Obama was elected in 2008. Good lord.
For real - it was literally called the "2008 financial crisis" (not 2009). It is widely accepted that the Great Recession began in late 2007.

I usually make a point not to engage with people on this forum who peddle in false facts to support their conclusions. But this untruth is so outrageous it needs to be corrected again.

Obama did not cause the 2008 economic downturn. Full stop. The stock market crashed in September of 2008 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The election was two months later - we hold elections in November, and we swear in presidents in January of the following year. Obama arguably won this election largely based on the fact that the American economy was already in free fall. The crash did not begin after he was sworn in and was not the result of any of his policies.
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  #15734  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 4:29 PM
AHS1983 AHS1983 is offline
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The upshot of The Economist article is that inheritance is becoming a bigger factor today than it has been for many decades, across the Western world.

And boomers have an utterly colossal amount to pass on.

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  #15735  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 4:35 PM
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I put money on a condo in 2007 and closed in October 2008.

Mortgage financing fell through the floor in October, right after I got mine -- before the election.
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  #15736  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 4:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
WOAH WITH THE REVISIONIST HISTORY.

The great recession was due to the housing crash that started in 2007, even if much of the crisis played out in 2008. Obama was elected in 2008. Good lord.
Good Lord Almighty... the Obama reference was totally tongue-in-cheek.

I distinctly remember Barack and George collaborating on emergency measures prior to his being sworn in. This collaboration started in December of 2008. I am fully aware of the difference between the initial 'real estate' and 'lender' troubles but my reference was to the stock market meltdown.

BTW, there was no bigger fan of Obama than me. I watched virtually every 'rally' he held and called voters all over the country from a calling system that the campaign had set up. I watched Barack tear up when he announced his grandma had passed in a rainy Virginia and on the night of the election I cried like a baby. If you have been here long enough you should know.... Oh NVM



https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/obama-mourns-grandmother-idJPRTXA8J720081104/
Quote:
A subdued Barack Obama on Monday mourned his grandmother as a "quiet hero" who helped raise him, telling a campaign rally that her death had made the final night of his White House campaign "bittersweet."
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Originally Posted by mr1138 View Post
I usually make a point not to engage with people on this forum who peddle in false facts to support their conclusions. But this untruth is so outrageous it needs to be corrected again.

Obama did not cause the 2008 economic downturn. Full stop. The stock market crashed in September of 2008 following the
When I get the facts wrong I will always concede the point b/c I like being accurate and I am wrong from time to time. In this case we're talking about two different 'things' and I'm right on what I'm talking about.

FWIW, I used to hang out at a blog of a previous loan officer that predicted what would happen before the poop hit the fan which is why I sold short the stock of many lenders. While I made some money I 'covered' my positions too soon to make the really big bucks.

Quote:
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I put money on a condo in 2007 and closed in October 2008.

Mortgage financing fell through the floor in October, right after I got mine -- before the election.
Yup, that timing fits the scenario...
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  #15737  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 5:03 PM
mr1138 mr1138 is offline
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When I get the facts wrong I will always concede the point b/c I like being accurate and I am wrong from time to time. In this case we're talking about two different 'things' and I'm right on what I'm talking about.
Lol. I call big time BS!

To be honest dude - if I see that a forum post has your name on it, I usually skip to the next post and don't even read.
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  #15738  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 5:27 PM
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The upshot of The Economist article is that inheritance is becoming a bigger factor today than it has been for many decades, across the Western world.

And boomers have an utterly colossal amount to pass on.
While the argument may be well made it doesn't change my thinking. Much of it goes to economic inflation as to the eye-popping numbers but it will be less impactful IMO than back in the Gilded Age. Of course that was prior to the Great Depression so who knows, eh?

Speaking of the Great Depression reminds me of this classic song
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  #15739  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 5:34 PM
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Lol. I call big time BS!

To be honest dude - if I see that a forum post has your name on it, I usually skip to the next post and don't even read.
I wonder if you don't confuse a difference of opinion from a difference in facts?

I don't mind reading your posts; free speech is a wonderful thing. That doesn't mean I have to agree with your ideology which is different from non-ideological facts.
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  #15740  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2025, 5:56 PM
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While the argument may be well made it doesn't change my thinking. Much of it goes to economic inflation as to the eye-popping numbers but it will be less impactful IMO than back in the Gilded Age. Of course that was prior to the Great Depression so who knows, eh?

Speaking of the Great Depression reminds me of this classic song
The chart is in 2024 real dollars so it's adjusted for inflation. Gilded Age 2.0 is in full swing.

This is off topic, but it was a fascinating article on how inheritance has reestablished itself as a driver of wealth. In 1900, inheritances could be worth as much as 20% of a nations GPD, average looks to be around 15%, with these rates decreasing through the 20th century until the rebounded in the 1980's and now sits at around 10% of GDP on average. Contributing factors include the rebuilding of wealth following WW1 & WW2 (it turn out annihilating Europe twice was a bad idea) and the decrease in estate taxes.

The take-away is that it's more important to marry the estate versus marrying productivity if you want to live comfortably in the current era.
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