The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[benvui]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Population clock current estimates (June 19th 2024)

NS - 1,084,938
NB - 856,014
NL - 543,148
PE - 177,786

TOTAL - 2,661,866

They adjusted the clock based on the quarterly numbers they now sit at
NS - 1,079,563
NB - 857,890
NL - 543,179
PEI - 178,432

Total 2,659,064

[benvui]

Originally Posted by benvui

They adjusted the clock based on the quarterly numbers they now sit at
NS - 1,079,563
NB - 857,890
NL - 543,179
PEI - 178,432

Total 2,659,064

For reference, here are the 2021 Census numbers and the % change since then

NS - 969,383 - 11.4%
NB - 775,610 - 10.6%
NL - 510,550 - 6.4%
PEI - 154,331 - 15.6%

[MonctonRad]

Average population growth rate per year (for the last three years):

NS - 36,727
NB - 27,427
NL - 10,876
PE - 8,034

If this growth rate remains stable for the next six years, then this will be the extrapolated populations of the Atlantic provinces in 2030:

NS - 1,299,925
NB - 1,022,452
NL - 608,425
PE - 226,636

TOTAL: 3,157,438

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Average population growth rate per year (for the last three years):

NS - 36,727
NB - 27,427
NL - 10,876
PE - 8,034

If this growth rate remains stable for the next six years, then this will be the extrapolated populations of the Atlantic provinces in 2030:

NS - 1,299,925
NB - 1,022,452
NL - 608,425
PE - 226,636

TOTAL: 3,157,438

That would be quite impressive in barely more than 5 years time. Such a demographic milestone should be the impetus for a new airport study. Moncton’s airport is doing great, but Fredericton and Saint John’s airports are really lagging behind. Airports aren’t just vital for business travellers, vacations, and tourism, but immigration too.

Surpassing the million people milestone should really get the province thinking about a lot of changes. Will be interesting to see how the next government deals with the raft of challenges exacerbated by our growing population. Housing, healthcare, education… there’s a lot of room for improvement, to say the least.

[KnoxfordGuy]

From CTV Atlantic today:

"New Brunswick saw the highest population growth rate in more than 50 years in 2023, according to a new report.

The 2023 Economy in Review report says the province’s population hit 834,691 on July 1, 2023, which represented a 3.1 per cent from 2022 and the highest growth rate in the comparable data since 1972.

The report further notes the population growth of 64,194 in the past five years is equivalent to the growth observed between 1980 and 2018. Moncton was the fastest growing census metropolitan area in Canada for the second year in a row while Fredericton was the ninth.

Stats Can shows record quarter for immigration growth in Maritimes
Urban growth strategy projects needed for 16K housing units in Moncton over 25 years. The report says the province’s economy grew by 1.3 per cent in 2023 and employment rose by 3.5 per cent, which was the highest such growth rate since 2002.

“The unemployment rate decreased to 6.6 per cent, which is the lowest rate ever recorded for New Brunswick since Statistics Canada started gathering comparable data in 1976,” the report says.

The overall vacancy rate for private apartments fell from 1.9 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023 while the province also recorded 4,547 housing starts, the second-highest level since 1983.

Investment in building construction reached $3.8 billion, representing a 9.3 per cent increase and the largest growth among the provinces."

[MonctonRad]

Xelebes, a reliable poster in the Canada section has come up with his best guess estimates for the July 1st populations for Canada's CMAs and CAs based on the previous census numbers, and growth estimates during the interval.



For Atlantic Canadian communities:

1) Halifax NS - 529,331
2) St. John's NL - 234,533
3) Moncton NB - 186,938
4) Saint John NB - 141,617
5) Fredericton NB - 122,555
6) CBRM (Sydney) NS - 113,649
7) Charlottetown PE - 93,430
8) Truro NS - 50,016
9) New Glasgow NS - 36,446
10) Bathurst NB - 33,298
11) Corner Brook NL - 31,089
12) Miramichi NB - 30,001
13) Kentville NS - 29,139
14) Edmundston NB - 23,459
15) Summerside PE - 20,126
16) Campbellton NB - 15,224
17) Grand Falls/Windsor NL - 14,408
18) Gander NL - 14,103

[mmmatt]

I love to see the latest numbers and I also love to see a broad context.

Here are some data sets showing how NB has changed over the past 100 years.

Note - I used 2023 estimates for the latest numbers and the decades before are from the census, I know those are two different methodologies but estimates don't go back nearly as far hence the hybrid.

NB Cities

First up we have a look at the 8 cities in NB, some notes of interest:

- 3 cities peaked in 1971
- Dieppe, Fredericton and Moncton remain the only 3 cities in NB with consistent growth over 100 years.
- There are big jumps for some cities in decades past due to amalgamations eg. Saint John 1961, Moncton 1961, Bathurst 1971, Fredericton 1981, Edmundston 2001. RIP Lancaster, Simonds, Lewisville, Sunny Brae, Devon, Marysville
- Moncton becomes the first NB city to crack 90k after Saint John nearly hit that number in the early 70s.
- Fredericton in 1921 was in the same ballpark of Campbellton, now it's knocking on the door of Saint John for the #2 spot and Campbellton remains relatively the same size over a century later.



NB Counties / Regions

Next we have a look at the 15 counties in NB, some notes of interest:

- I have coded numbers in green when they went up, red when they went down.
- I have highlighted in yellow the year when a county had it's peak population.
- This chart is a more reliable source to show change over a longer period since it doesn't have the issue of amalgamations and new cities.
- Queens county stands out having peaked in 1951
- All the counties in North East peaked by 1991.
- Carleton stands out as an odd county for North NB having fairly consistent (albeit slow) growth.
- South East is the only region wherein all of it's counties have their current year as peak.
- Westmorland and York are the only 2 counties with no drops decade over decade, Kings and Albert are nearly there.




Here is a map showing the regional populations in 1921 and their share of the province in percentage.
- Capital and Northwest in the same ballpark in the low 10s.
- South West, South East and North East all in the same ballpark in the 20s.


Here is a map showing the regional populations in 2023 and their share of the province in percentage.
- North West has been left behind and is below 10% now
- Capital has blown up, now on par with North East and South West all close to 20%
- South East heads into the 30% range.
- West NB (YFC/YSJ) and East NB (YQM) are about an even 50/50 .


Here is a map showing the growth over the last 100 years in each area.
- Capital picks up a W for most percentage growth.
- South East picks up a W for most raw growth.
- North West (region) has grown the same in 100 years compared to Dieppe (city) in 50 years.


This final map shows the current population density in each region.
- South East has the highest density despite being 1,700 km2 larger than South West.
- Here are the sizes for reference:
---North East --- 26,143 km2
---Capital --- 14,468 km2
---North West --- 12,255 km2
--- South East --- 10,015 km2
---South West --- 8,361 km2
- All the counties have vast swaths of empty space but of course we know the center of NB is basically empty, this burden of emptiness is shared mainly by North East and Capital but also to a lesser extent North West and South East.

[Taeolas]

I think Carleton County gets a boost by really being the northern edge of the Capital Region. Woodstock residents don't think twice about a quick trip down to Freddy for things you can't get locally, or just for variety. Plus Woodstock has had relatively steady growth by being a service center for the county and region. Being a big Border crossing doesn't hurt either I'm sure.

North of Woodstock, things tend to be a bit slower, and travel patterns start twisting to go more northward (towards Edmundston) than down to Freddy, so they likely are growing slower.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Woodstock being the end of the I95 plays a part in their growth. It must. Plus, as stated, being only 50 mins from Fredericton. I grew up just north of Centreville, 20 mins above Woodstock, and people always head to Fredericton and not Edmundston to shop. If people weren't going to Bangor however.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

As someone who has lived their entire life in Charlotte County I'm surprised yet not surprised to see that we are at our highest population ever. I would of thought we would of peaked in like the 60s-70s before the baby boomers left for the cities and when the fishing industry/industry in general was at its peak. But a lot of people have moved in these past few years to work at places like Cookes and to get away from the cities. I'm happy to see we aren't getting left behind.

[KnoxfordGuy]

The Canada population clock has NB past 860,000 people. Never would I have ever expected to see this in my lifetime 10 years ago and I'm only 33 haha

[new kid in town]

Amazing infographics and analyses mmmatt. It's quite clear with the population density of Southeast NB and Moncton CMA's growth how desperate it needs that rumored UNB expansion (even for only a handful more programs instead of a full-sized campus with wide coverage of disciplines).

[mylesmalley]

I think it's safe to say that this particular plan had nothing to do with it, but it's fun to look back at Shawn Graham's Population Growth Secretariat and their plan to increase the province's population by 100k by 2026.

https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/...Strategy-e.pdf

In 2007, this seemed like a laughably unobtainable goal - getting New Brunswick to 850,000 by 2026. But here we are, two years ahead of schedule.

Of course, I think we'd be a lot better off had the growth happened as they planned, rather than all coming over a four year period.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Amazing infographics and analyses mmmatt. It's quite clear with the population density of Southeast NB and Moncton CMA's growth how desperate it needs that rumored UNB expansion (even for only a handful more programs instead of a full-sized campus with wide coverage of disciplines).

Agree 100% - excellent presentation mmmatt!!!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

The Canada population clock has NB past 860,000 people. Never would I have ever expected to see this in my lifetime 10 years ago and I'm only 33 haha

It will be interesting to see which happens first - NS at 1.1M or NB at 875k. It will be a near thing.

These events will likely occur early next year.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

What surprised me the most is the Westmorland county was been the most populated region since the 50's which is 90-95% from Moncton/Dieppe/Riverview. I always assumed this happened in the 80's.

[MonctonRad]

Eight surprising numbers in the Higgs government’s economic review
Author of the article:Adam Huras
Published Jul 14, 2024 • Last updated 19 hours ago • 5 minute read
https://tj.news/new-brunswick/eight-...conomic-review (paywall)

Interesting article if you have access.

This infographic was nice:



It seems (on the surface) somewhat surprising that Queens & Sunbury counties are low growth regions given that they lie in the heart of southern NB between all three major cities, but, the reason of course is that neither of these two counties really has any urban communities to attract immigrants in the first place. These two counties are entirely rural.

That’s as net international migration brought in 20,340 people and net interprovincial migration added 6,914. Offsetting that number was the number of deaths exceeding the number of births in New Brunswick for the ninth consecutive year.

Westmorland County, which includes Moncton, grew by 10,731 people.

On the other end of the spectrum, Victoria County, which includes Grand Falls, Perth-Andover, and Plaster Rock, grew by 156 people.

In a breakdown by city, a total of 41.2 per cent of New Brunswick’s population growth came in Moncton, with 18.1 per cent in Fredericton, and 13.6 per cent in Saint John.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Eight surprising numbers in the Higgs government’s economic review
Author of the article:Adam Huras
Published Jul 14, 2024 • Last updated 19 hours ago • 5 minute read
https://tj.news/new-brunswick/eight-...conomic-review (paywall)

Interesting article if you have access.

This infographic was nice:



It seems (on the surface) somewhat surprising that Queens & Sunbury counties are low growth regions given that they lie in the heart of southern NB between all three major cities, but, the reason of course is that neither of these two counties really has any urban communities to attract immigrants in the first place. These two counties are entirely rural.

Also Sunbury/Queens counties has a large chuck of each that is Base Gagetown's training area, and thus not likely to be inhabited anytime soon.

[Nashe]

Dang. Westmorland/Albert was within 3,500 of growing as much as the rest of the province combined. (If I counted right, which I probably didn't.)

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This infographic was nice:

I find it interesting that certain areas where you have coastline but NO major urban centre are growing so significantly. Example is Charlotte County, where the population growth is impressive even though there is really only St. Stephen/Calais as a shopping hub. Same for Albert and Kent Counties. While not as big as say the three cities, it does beg the question if these rural areas will start to see more highway-side plaza developments (like in Nova Scotia) that will act as regional shopping hubs. Two examples in Nova Scotia are the long-established Sobeys plazas in Hubbards and Enfield which have been around for decades. They are now seeing lots of rural growth in those areas due to the accessibility of services - especially grocery.