Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by niwell

Elliott Lake, ON has been trying to market itself as a cheap retirement location for years now with the closure of uranium mining in the area. And to be fair has had some success - even growing by about 600 people between 2016 and 2022 (still well below it's peak). However, the main selling points of cheap housing and access to outdoor recreation has limited appeal beyond those who already want to be in the North, often from somewhere more remote. The difficulty in travel is a big one, and would result in an immediate veto for people such as my parents who don't want to have to drive, take a regional flight and then an international one to get anywhere.

Paraphrased quote from a thirty-something co-worker that grew up in Elliot Lake.

"Man, I could outright own my house in Elliot Lake"
*thinks a minute*
"I'd probably be stoned out of my mind like when I was as a teenager in that town if I stayed there though"

I laughed more than I really should have.

[jonny24]

I think it's pretty obvious why one of the two stores in Cartier is the LCBO...

Of all the arguing about "remote" "wfh" "outdoor lifestyle" (as if we don't have ATV's and snowmobiles in Southern Ontario ) the one thing that can't be addressed is moving away from friends and family.

It's the biggest challenge to moving to any new location, let alone Sudbury's-Sudbury. But if I were to move to say, Calgary, there would be rugby clubs to join, homebrew clubs to join, construction associations to join, a music scene to check out, etc, insert whatever your interests are. A myriad of ways to meet people, and lots of different people.

One of the best ways is work, abut not if you're only ever a face on a screen. My best friend, who was in my wedding party, was originally a work friend. We became buddies after I giggled at a sly weed-smoking joke at the break room table. That doesn't happen in a Zoom call.

So yeah, moving out to the next small town down from the highway is probably cheaper at the expense of a commute, and can offer lifestyle tradeoffs as well. People have been doing that forever. But that's completely different to moving to the ass-end of the Canadian shield because "it's cheap".

[casper]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Paraphrased quote from a thirty-something co-worker that grew up in Elliot Lake.

"Man, I could outright own my house in Elliot Lake"
*thinks a minute*
"I'd probably be stoned out of my mind like when I was as a teenager in that town if I stayed there though"

I laughed more than I really should have.

All depends on what your looking for. I would not retire to Elliot Lake but for some people it is ideal. There are other less remote places that are actually quite nice.

For several years I lived in Deep River Ontario. It is a neat little town with most major amenities and an active community. Even Pembroke is still affordable and quite a bit bigger.

The critical factor is family and friends. All things being equal and employment not being a factor most people are going to want to live near family and/or friends.

[Truenorth00]

^ Correct. Which is why the only way to get places like Cartier to grow is to try and attract residents from Sudbury. Trying to get people from Toronto to move there is about as sane as telling them to move to Mars.

[goodgrowth]

This forum tends to come up with these obscure and extreme examples of "smaller cheaper options" for people in the large metros.

A person in the GTA would be better of just moving to a city outside the region than in the boonies in Northern Ontario.

Like just move to Saskatoon or Red Deer or something.

[Truenorth00]

It's not the forum. It's basically one person.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by niwell

And Elliot Lake at least has over 10,000 people with the local services that come along with that. Cartier isn't even incorporated and the Local Services Board doesn't have the capacity to provide treated water or garbage collection!

Actually most small villages, even in Southern Ontario, don't have treated water. In the Kingston region, Battersea, Harrowsmith, and Verona don't have running water - all residents of those villages have well and septic. Even Metcalfe, Ontario, which has about 2000 people in the village area and is within Ottawa city limits, doesn't have piped water.

In Sharbot Lake, there is not only no piped water, there is no curbside garbage collection either - residents have to drive their waste to the dump themselves. This is actually fairly common in a lot of rural areas in Eastern Ontario.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

This forum tends to come up with these obscure and extreme examples of "smaller cheaper options" for people in the large metros.

A person in the GTA would be better of just moving to a city outside the region than in the boonies in Northern Ontario.

Like just move to Saskatoon or Red Deer or something.

I agree.

The examples cited are just so extreme as to be non-starters for most.

Nobody's moving from Yonge at Dundas to Cartier. Hell, even most people in Sudbury consider Chelmsford or Onaping about where the universe stops, unless they're going to camp. A fringe few from Sudbury might make it to Cartier for reasons, but Sudbury house pricing hasn't gone gonzo enough to really make the theoretical $5000 lot worth it when one factors in the cost of actually building the dream home in today's world. The septic and well alone will cost tens of thousands.

Same with Smooth Rock Falls. Again, people might consider relocating there from Timmins or something for reasons. From Sudbury? Extremely unlikely. From Toronto? Would someone from there even be able guess within 500km on the map of Ontario it would be? (excluding long-haul truck drivers who pass through it).

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

As far as things to do, My long list of things are things that in Toronto I cannot do. for example, atving and snowmobiling. Then there are things like fishing and hunting. Obviously, this is not for everyone. Just like I would never want to live in the GTA. Been there and glad I got out.

First off - I'll say that I'm with the chorus here in saying that growth in places like Cartier isn't a realistic solution for our housing woes.

But you have a point here. This is an urbanist forum so people here generally have urban interests and outdoor activities like fishing, hunting, camping, snowmobiling, etc. are rarer things they might do a few times a year. But for some folks its the opposite - these outdoor wilderness activities are their preferred hobbies and urban activities are their once or twice a year thing. For these people, living in very rural areas and taking the occasional once or twice yearly vacation to a big city is more satisfying. My buddy in Ompah is like that. He's rather have easy access to the wilderness and go to Toronto one weekend a summer to get his fix of cultural activites, nightlife, etc.

But of course, from Ompah he can get to Toronto in a 4 hour drive. Can't do that from Cartier. That's the real reason why places like Cartier aren't gonna boom - plenty of much less remote spots that offer the same lifestyle.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

First off - I'll say that I'm with the chorus here in saying that growth in places like Cartier isn't a realistic solution for our housing woes.

But you have a point here. This is an urbanist forum so people here generally have urban interests and outdoor activities like fishing, hunting, camping, snowmobiling, etc. are rarer things they might do a few times a year. But for some folks its the opposite - these outdoor wilderness activities are their preferred hobbies and urban activities are their once or twice a year thing. For these people, living in very rural areas and taking the occasional once or twice yearly vacation to a big city is more satisfying. My buddy in Ompah is like that. He's rather have easy access to the wilderness and go to Toronto one weekend a summer to get his fix of cultural activites, nightlife, etc.

But of course, from Ompah he can get to Toronto in a 4 hour drive. Can't do that from Cartier. That's the real reason why places like Cartier aren't gonna boom - plenty of much less remote spots that offer the same lifestyle.

This is reasonable.

The beautiful thing about Ontario is that somewhere on the spectrum of Downtown Toronto to Pickle Lake exists and one can choose whatever they want.

I just make the observation that millions of people with free will choose accordingly to their desires. And that they choose Cartier less often.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not the forum. It's basically one person.

My point is the discussion around cheap remote living on here is narrow because it basically consists of "how do I stay in the GTA's orbit"

And imo it doesn't really exist. "Cheap" rural Ontario is generally small, stagnant, overpriced and the housing stock is OLD.

So you will choose to live in a super small shitty place just you are still "only 4 hours" away from the GTA. How often are you going to drive that realistically? It's like some form of stockholm syndrome.

Meanwhile you can probably get a townhouse in Alberta built in this century for 250K and 20min drive to an NHL team..

[Truenorth00]

^ This goes back to what was said about staying close to family and friends. 4 hrs drive > 3 hrs flying for most people.

When we talk about strange obsessions, we should also consider that there is a limit on the personal cost to own real estate for most people. I would wager that most people care more about being closer to family and friends than getting a house for 250k within 20 mins drive of an NHL team.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by jonny24

I think it's pretty obvious why one of the two stores in Cartier is the LCBO.

Cartier’s Okotoks-rivalling motto: “We have a LCBO store”

“There’s a (very limited) number of things to do in Cartier, but ‘getting drunk’ is on the short list”

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Paraphrased quote from a thirty-something co-worker that grew up in Elliot Lake.

"Man, I could outright own my house in Elliot Lake"
*thinks a minute*
"I'd probably be stoned out of my mind like when I was as a teenager in that town if I stayed there though"

I laughed more than I really should have.

Your dog food analogy was an absolute home run.

“Think of the savings, if you started to live strictly on (edible, acceptably caloric) dog food!”

Properties in Cartier are real estate dog food: I wouldn’t eat it even if you gave it to me for free. And I’m sure 99%+ of people agree with us.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

But of course, from Ompah he can get to Toronto in a 4 hour drive. Can't do that from Cartier. That's the real reason why places like Cartier aren't gonna boom - plenty of much less remote spots that offer the same lifestyle.

Agreed - and this was kinda my point. As to your posts above I realize there are some places in rural Eastern Ontario that do lack services and are pretty remote. But in the big scheme of things they are a lot *less* remote, and the tradeoffs seem a lot more reasonable.




To address goodgrowth's post - in addition to the flying thing which greatly affects family/friends, when working remotely time zones can come into effect. If none of these were an issue, I had nothing tying me down and was free to move anywhere in the world a townhouse in Alberta likely wouldn't enter the equation. We're talking about Ontario because that's how the conversation started - you could have the same one about somewhere in Northern Alberta.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

Your dog food analogy was an absolute home run.

“Think of the savings, if you started to live strictly on (edible, acceptably caloric) dog food!”

Properties in Cartier are real estate dog food: I wouldn’t eat it even if you gave it to me for free. And I’m sure 99%+ of people agree with us.

I would not call it dog food. There is something romantic about a cabin in the middle of the woods far from civilization yet close to an LCBO.

After your 10 minute day dream of a house in the forest passes you come to your senses and decide it would be better to experience that as an airbnb, cross that off your bucket list to never return again.

[Acajack]

People have mentioned Ompah, which is a bit over an hour drive from Ottawa and NHL hockey, Blake Shelton, Lady Gaga and Elton John shows, IKEA, Aritzia, Nordstrom, Simons, etc.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ This goes back to what was said about staying close to family and friends. 4 hrs drive > 3 hrs flying for most people.

When we talk about strange obsessions, we should also consider that there is a limit on the personal cost to own real estate for most people. I would wager that most people care more about being closer to family and friends than getting a house for 250k within 20 mins drive of an NHL team.

Well this comes down to personal preference I guess but for me living in the boonies/super small town(which will comprise of 90% of your day to day living) with a 4 hour drive from family would be worse than living in a larger city(say 100K+) with decent affordability and options and even a 4+ hour flight to see family.

And my point is I don't think the latter really exists in Ontario if you have family in the GTA. I guess Sudbury or Windsor maybe?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by casper

I would not call it dog food. There is something romantic about a cabin in the middle of the woods far from civilization yet close to an LCBO.

After your 10 minute day dream of a house in the forest passes you come to your senses and decide it would be better to experience that as an airbnb, cross that off your bucket list to never return again.

You can have a cabin in the middle of the wilderness an hour away from Montreal.

The hunting, fishing, logging, etc. isn’t getting linearly better in proportion with “number of hours of driving away from civilization”; it’s the opposite, it peaks and stays there.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

You can have a cabin in the middle of the wilderness an hour away from Montreal.

The hunting, fishing, logging, etc. isn’t getting linearly better in proportion with “number of hours of driving away from civilization”; it’s the opposite, it peaks and stays there.

True, but it won't have a nearby LCBO franchise store.

As, I said, I would not buy there. Spend a weekend? Maybe. If I was already in the area.