Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas
Given the current market conditions, I'm thinking the Dakota Pacific tower is very much a "next cycle" project unfortunately. Block D of West Quarter too.
Hopefully we still see groundbreakings for Soren, 150 Main, and Block C much sooner than that.
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I think the question is whether we are at the end of an actual cycle or not.
Currently, a lot of the evidence suggests that the economic boom cycle we've been in is not actually over, rather is simply being artificially suppressed by the Fed.
For example, home prices rose in February as mortgage rates declined a little bit, suggesting that demand hasn't gone anywhere.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/03/home...-declines.html
Instead, everything is basically just frozen until either the Fed relaxes rates or cracks appear, as they have with mortgage rates and people take advantage.
So for now, it looks like all it would take is for the Fed to determine the time is right to pull back on QT and rate hikes and the market would basically bounce right back to where it was.
However, that isn't to say that the Fed could turn what is a temporary freeze into an actual end of the cycle by keeping rates high for too long. So the future is still uncertain as to how things will shake out.
Personally, seeing home prices pick up, not just nationally, but also in my own neighborhood is giving me hope that there is just so much demand that it is going to start bubbling up eventually and (even with high interest rates) we are going to start to see movement again for some projects that haven't gotten started yet.
I think a lot of eyes are going to be on how well the several thousand housing units coming online this year in Salt Lake fill up and at what rental rates. If they fill up quickly it could very well offer the type of evidence for cautious lenders to provide needed investments. If they stall and fail to fill up showing weak demand I think we will see a sharp pullback in the coming years. Or it could be somewhere in the middle. Who knows?