PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread X

[TonyTone]

Originally Posted by cardeza

At its worst, Philly lost over 25% of its population and Detroit lost over 50%, but part of Philly look like Detroit, even in 2020. You should look around a bit. We have a lot more areas that never fully depopulated and thus our population loss and vacancy rates arent as high, but there are sections that would be right at home in Detroit. This is the poorest of the 10 largest cities in America, lets not forget. we shouldnt discuss this as if Philadelphia is light years away from understanding detroit's plight. losing almost 600k people in 50 years is nothing to sneeze at......

Looking at Philly Wiki, the highest population Philly has was 1950 2,071,605

If we would have held that population + growth we would be #2 or #3 in Biggest population in the US

2019 population
#1 NYC 8,336,817
#2 LA 3,979,576
#3 Chicago 2,693,976
#4 Houston 2,320,268
#5 Phoenix 1,680,992
#6 Philadelphia 1,584,064

If we were #2 how powerful would Philly be and how would we have worked with NYC?

[TonyTone]

Originally Posted by McBane

Again, any discussion re Detroit has to acknowledge that Detroit took DECADES to fall apart. No one in the 1950's could have predicted what occurred over the ensuing years and I'd argue that 1950's Detroit was economically stronger than Philly is today. And yes, they did have all their eggs in one basket, which thankfully we do not. But let's not pretend that Philly has some amazing corporate community. Furthermore, I don't think anyone is definitively saying that Philly will follow Detroit's footsteps or that such a potential fall would occur exactly as it did in Detroit. As I stated above, no one can predict these things.

It will be very interesting to see how the next citywide election shakes out. Kendra Brooks is an at-large councilperson and, unlike district reps, she doesn't have a lifelong grip on the position. It's very possible she could lose her seat. It's hard to predict where we'll be in four years, but based on current trends (recent elections of Helen Gym, Larry Krasner, and Brooks come to mind), the opposite could happen: we could see more establishment politicians ousted in favor of hard left activists, hostile to developers, landlords, the business community as a whole, and of course all those upper income folks who populate the towers we drool over.

For those like me who wished that our complacent, corrupt, establishment politicians would give way to reformist, intelligent people who might would cut taxes and usher in a period of economic growth, LOL. That ain't happening.

I don't see Philly following Detroits foot steps ever!

let me list some examples just from what im seeing.

#1 People are moving from NYC to Philly, this is bringing different people, different crowds and different ideas/thinking. We can talk all the shit we want about NYC but the people from NYC know how to do business and make an area pop I.E FISHTOWN, BREWERYTOWN, FRANCISVILLIE & EVEN KENSINGTON. Now this may not be everyone from NYC but a good majority are.

#2 The amount of people that can make figures of 100k and upward is very big now, its either very rich or very poor and I see many more people becoming rich everyday due to technology or business.

#3 Major Universities & Medical/Hospitals.

#4 I think we can count of Comcast being alive for a very longtime and contributing a lot. even if they are poor in taste.

Those are some examples I Believe Ive seen with my own eyes. so its not written in stone.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by TonyTone

#1 People are moving from NYC to Philly, this is bringing different people, different crowds and different ideas/thinking. We can talk all the shit we want about NYC but the people from NYC know how to do business and make an area pop I.E FISHTOWN, BREWERYTOWN, FRANCISVILLIE & EVEN KENSINGTON. Now this may not be everyone from NYC but a good majority are.

This. I don't think Philly's location can ever be overstated in terms of how its central BosWash location will always make it a good long-term bet.

Even in the slowly-recovering pandemic era, the top 3 cities among the Case-Shiller index for economic resilience according to a new analysis (and remember, Philadelphia famously isn't included in the index) are the other 3 major BosWash hubs--Boston, DC and New York: https://www.globest.com/2020/06/18/resea...-job-resilience/?slreturn=20200518205044

This again bodes very well for the Northeast Corridor over the long term. No other city in the US can boast such synergy by proximity to the greatest economic "heavy hitters" of the country, and frankly, the world.

[Redddog]

My wife grew up with a girl who went on to become a hot-shit designer in NY. She does SUPER high-end stuff - like $5000 end table type stuff. She recently finished redecorating the 2nd largest yacht in the world (some russian oligarch).

She just called us and said "oh, I'm doing a house in this place called Fishtown. Is that close to you?"

If that isn't an indication of where were going....

[McBane]

That's about as anecdotal as the examples I gave of people looking to get out of the city - neither of which signal any obvious trend.

I don't quite understand the tendency of certain forumers to minimize/discount any negative news, trends, or facts. Just be realistic about things. I myself am cautiously optimistic but I won't discount or ignore the effect of Covid-19, George Floyd protests/riots, and the dramatic leftward shift of our city government, which to me is the most worrying in relation to development and jobs. I sincerely hope these things don't upend the city's momentum.

[Frontst17]

Originally Posted by McBane

That's about as anecdotal as the examples I gave of people looking to get out of the city - neither of which signal any obvious trend.

I don't quite understand the tendency of certain forumers to minimize/discount any negative news, trends, or facts. Just be realistic about things. I myself am cautiously optimistic but I won't discount or ignore the effect of Covid-19, George Floyd protests/riots, and the dramatic leftward shift of our city government, which to me is the most worrying in relation to development and jobs. I sincerely hope these things don't upend the city's momentum.

Yeah there it is... COVID is going to take a global response, the response to protests will have an overwhelmingly positive result on the city, and this leftward leaning city has done quite well for itself lately in relation to development. There’s plenty of negativity but you’re ignoring any positives to support you bleak outlook

[mcgrath618]

If we’re going off of anecdotal evidence, r/Philadelphia has been CHOCK FULL of people from NY asking about which neighborhoods to live in.

[eixample]

Some positivity to counteract some of the negative posts recently:

At this site, you can see the percentage annual increase of 25-34 year-olds with a college degree living within 3 miles of the central business district. It is broken up into two time periods, % annual increases between 2000 and 2010 and % annual increases between 2010 and 2016. To me, this is a very important statistic reflecting the attractiveness of the city and the health of the tax base.

Philly's annual growth rate was 5.7% between 2000 and 2010 and 5.9% between 2010 and 2016. These rates are higher than other already dense, high public transit cities like Boston (3.1% and 4.3%), Chicago (4.4% and 3.5%), New York (1.4% and 1%), San Francisco (0.8% and 4.1%) and Washington (5.6% and 4.1%) and higher than some of the trendier metro areas like Portland, Minneapolis and Atlanta. Other metros of interests:
Baltimore was higher between 2000 and 2010 (6.5%), but lower between 2010 and 2016 (4.8%), Pittsburgh was lower between 2000 and 2010 (3.9%), but higher between 2010 and 2016 (6.5%), and Seattle was lower between 2000 and 2010 (3.0%), but higher between 2010 and 2016 (8.8%). For what it's worth, among the larger cities Philly was beat out during both time periods by LA, Dallas, Miami and Houston.

[WQ5668]

They are also moving into Port Richmond, my dad has had 4 homes sold on his street in the past year bought by people from NYC, plus his neighbors house is being fixed up by a flipper, he kept getting offers on his house as well

[Kfmcshan]

Developer renews push for office tower at 1301 Market St. in Center City

When Pulver first introduced 1301 Market, the proposed building stood 38 stories and 840,000 square feet. The building is now designed to be as high as 30 stories and as much as 700,000 square feet but doesn’t have to be that big and can be adjusted downward.

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...new-push-for-developing-1301-market.html

[iheartphilly]

^
Well, not really news except decreased height. They are still looking for a major tenant before any work begins. They stated project cost at the high end is $280MM.

Not sure this project will go anywhere in terms of office space demand. Seems all the momentum for office space is over by 30th street station on both sides of the river.

[WestPassyunk1]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

^

Not sure this project will go anywhere in terms of office space demand. Seems all the momentum for office space is over by 30th street station on both sides of the river.

The height decrease is certainly a bummer, but I'd say there are definite advantages to this location that 30th doesn't offer. Immediate access to all of the federal and local court houses is very appealing. Or maybe this could feed from the smaller tenants that use WeWork nearby.

Seems like this developer has a good track record of lining up good tenants. I'm going to share a snippet from the PBJ about a potential tenant/ some general good news that hasn't gotten much coverage.


Philadelphia positioned for continued growth, panel says, if government gets on board

...

Drucker & Scaccetti CEO Jane Scaccetti disagreed with the sentiment that businesses don’t want to be located in Philadelphia. She said her e-commerce clients are interested in coming into the city. Most of their talent pool is coming from California, New York and Washington, and they like what they see with Comcast making a huge impact in addition to the education and life sciences sectors. That has created a desirable talent pool. She said she spoke with one large e-commerce company that is looking at moving into the city and could bring close to 10,000 new jobs to the region

Anyone know which ecommerce retailer she was talking about? 10000 jobs is a total game changer

[DudeGuy]

Originally Posted by WestPassyunk1

The height decrease is certainly a bummer, but I'd say there are definite advantages to this location that 30th doesn't offer. Immediate access to all of the federal and local court houses is very appealing. Or maybe this could feed from the smaller tenants that use WeWork nearby.

Seems like this developer has a good track record of lining up good tenants. I'm going to share a snippet from the PBJ about a potential tenant/ some general good news that hasn't gotten much coverage.


Philadelphia positioned for continued growth, panel says, if government gets on board

[/QUOTE*] Drucker & Scaccetti CEO Jane Scaccetti disagreed with the sentiment that businesses don’t want to be located in Philadelphia. She said her e-commerce clients are interested in coming into the city. Most of their talent pool is coming from California, New York and Washington, and they like what they see with Comcast making a huge impact in addition to the education and life sciences sectors. That has created a desirable talent pool. She said she spoke with one large e-commerce company that is looking at moving into the city and could bring close to 10,000 new jobs to the region [/QUOTE*]

Anyone know which ecommerce retailer she was talking about? 10000 jobs is a total game changer

If we're talking local, it could be QVC?

[Justin7]

Still too tall / too ugly for this location.

[eixample]

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but Dechert won their lawsuit against PA Dept of Community and Economic Development regarding the KOZ tax breaks they are aiming to get in a new building a bit to the west of the Cira center (not sure of the address). DCED made up a rule that you couldn't double dip (they moved into the Cira Center KOZ 15 years ago) but the Commonwealth Court ruled the statute didn't authorize them to do that. Now it's up to the legislature to amend the statute.

[PurpleWhiteOut]

I believe that was in regards to the red Schuylkill Yards building. 3001 JFK?

[cardeza]

This is a good read. Going to green doesn't mean things are going to be back to normal for office occupancy or retail that depends on office workers. I think CC retail is going to be struggling for a while. And for once, CC is actually going to be in worse situation vs outlying areas that are dependent on resident spending only.

https://www.inquirer.com/economy/philly-...pening-stores-philadelphia-20200624.html

[summersm343]

July CDR Submissions are up!!

https://www.phila.gov/documents/civic-design-review-cdr-meeting-materials/

[bigfish]

I really like the design of the 1300 Callowhill, American street, and Market Street buildings. I am really surprised to see that kind of development up in Tacony too! Also as development moves North of Richard Allen homes it is proving to be that having this faux suburbs in a growing city will really alienate that community and be a deadzone.

[iheartphilly]

^^
23rd and Cherry project is low slung bldg project. I'm curious why it isn't taller in the range of 100-150ft. Seems like very desirable to the Riverwalk, new Giant supermarket, the trails along the Schuylkill River and 30th Street trans hub.