The Official Saint John, NB Project Thread

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

This is partially the thesis of San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities by Michael Shellenberger

And Shellenberger is a lefty, that simply has had enough. I highly recommend the book.

Shellenberger is a pseudo-environmental Ayn Rand that argues the free market will eventually bring about positive environmental change through economic growth, which is far from being a "lefty," as you call it.

Just because someone avows to being a "progressive" before making bullish remarks doesn't make it so. I could write a book about legislated gun control and its value yet preempt it with a statement in the foreword about how I'm a firearm-owning member of a gun club, but that has no true affect on the validity of the book's thesis.

The whole idea of using San Francisco as a warning for a city like Saint John's policies is akin to a strawman argument. The cities are vastly different in population and demographics, situated in different climates (aside from fog), different political systems, and frankly if we had a fraction of the good transportation and equity policies that San Francisco has I think we'd be far better off. We should learn from the mistakes and best practices of others, without a doubt, however we should also listen to those who have made their careers out of studying - and also living - the realities of homelessness and addiction, rather than dismissing them based solely on the prognostications of those who would have us believe they can be experts from their armchairs.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

The whole idea of using San Francisco as a warning for a city like Saint John's policies is akin to a strawman argument.

Multiple cities, including SF, Zurich, etc have already gone down the road we are going down. The only difference is scale.

We have area911, our own needle park. We have e̶x̶p̶e̶r̶t̶s̶ enablers. We have a council that is looking to move the rot to stable residential areas, like belyea arena and so called green zones.

Can you provide an example of a tent city in Rothesay?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

According to Brent Harris of the Saint John Tool Library, there is also a 320 unit residential development proposal for the Belyea Arena property, which his organization would like to see developed into a 40 unit transitional house facility/ soccer air dome facility instead.

I believe the 320 unit development is to be in the form of townhomes.

Here is the property in question, which iirc, is over 6 acres.

320 new, residential units sounds like a great proposal for the West Side.

Anyone have any insight as to why Brent Harris is so opposed to such a development on the West Side?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

According to Brent Harris of the Saint John Tool Library, there is also a 320 unit residential development proposal for the Belyea Arena property, which his organization would like to see developed into a 40 unit transitional house facility/ soccer air dome facility instead.

I believe the 320 unit development is to be in the form of townhomes.

Here is the property in question, which iirc, is over 6 acres.

320 new, residential units sounds like a great proposal for the West Side.

Anyone have any insight as to why Brent Harris is so opposed to such a development on the West Side?

320 units, not a bad idea. To get anything built some of the units will have to be income geared, but overall chill.

Unfortunate to lose both a rink and field though.

Anyone have any insight as to why Brent Harris is so opposed to such a development on the West Side?

Because it was not his idea.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

320 units, not a bad idea. To get anything built some of the units will have to be income geared, but overall chill.

Unfortunate to lose both a rink and field though.



Because it was not his idea.

yeah, of course that's why he's opposed to townhouses, it's not his idea, and he can't take any credit for it

It's just incredulous to see how far he's willing contradict himself as a "housing first" guy, who's prioritizing 40 transitional units and a soccer dome versus 320 townhomes, because "rich people are bad". What I find troubling, is that he's using information he's gained as a city councillor about the other proposals to poison the well about those other proposal in the online discussion about the Belyea property.

He's claimed over and over again that no one wants townhomes constructed in their backyard, while a transitional housing project and a huge soccer would be great... the guy is just painfully full of crap.

__


The rink seems to be lost no matter what, at least according to pretty well anyone with any sort of power or influence at the city.

Though I don't agree with that line of thinking, as I think it would still make more sense to refurbish and reopen the rink, and put the plans for a multiplex in East Saint John on hold for now. The city's study that was used to justify closing the Belyea suggested that Saint John had one too many rinks. The population has grown considerably since that report, but still not enough to support building a multiplex arena without shutting another rink down, which will again be unpopular. If we built a 2 rink multiplex, we'll have 6 ice surfaces (not including TD Station) when the city's own study says we didn't need more than 3.5 ice surfaces. Reopening the Belyea would bring the number of ice surfaces back to 5.


The field isn't much of a loss considering how littered and unkempt it's become, and the proposal to erect a massive soccer air dome is frankly ridiculous for the middle of a residential neighbourhood close to historic sites like Fort Dufferin and Carleton Martello Tower.

I think condo towers would be the far preferable option considering they could preserve far more green-space AND provide more housing units (with ocean views to boot) than townhomes, but 320 townhomes are a fundamentally better option than Brent Harris's really bad plan for the property, so I think the city should take what they can get with this one, and go with the townhomes.

If Brent's project runs as a non profit or charity, it will likely generate ZERO property tax revenue, right? While the indoor soccer arena and soccer dome wouldn't generate any revenue until at least 7-10 years later, if that timeline can actually be believed. Quite frankly, i the claim that the transitional housing project would only year 7-10 years is BS, they'll totally try and extend that, and the soccer piece is just a ruse... and a really dumb ruse at that!

[cdnguys]

There is no proposal for 330 townhomes - just look at the size of the lot. It’s for 33 townhomes so it was obviously a typo. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...home-1.6100010

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

There is no proposal for 330 townhomes - just look at the size of the lot. It’s for 33 townhomes so it was obviously a typo. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...home-1.6100010

It’s not a typo, he’s stated it multiple, multiple times. Look at the size of the lot— the Belyea property is around six acres.

You’ve got the Belyea property mixed up with the sea street extension. The townhouse proposal has not been publicly presented. At one point Brent was trying to claim it would be 500 or more units to try and put the scare into the community regarding the other proposals.

There’s no publicly available information on the other proposals for the Belyea property, yet.

[adamuptownsj]

I don't think you can fit 330 townhouses on six acres. 20 per acre, and that's dense. Even stacked, which would be a first in SJ, you could pack maybe 28-32 in there.

I don't believe a word he types. Who knows if there's a competing proposal in the first place. Self-serving and using his leverage as a councillor in several nasty ways. But he must be a real dolt if he thinks "would you rather have a homeless shelter or townhouses next door?" is going to work anywhere.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I don't think you can fit 330 townhouses on six acres. 20 per acre, and that's dense. Even stacked, which would be a first in SJ, you could pack maybe 28-32 in there.

I don't believe a word he types. Who knows if there's a competing proposal in the first place. Self-serving and using his leverage as a councillor in several nasty ways. But he must be a real dolt if he thinks "would you rather have a homeless shelter or townhouses next door?" is going to work anywhere.

Paula Radwan Donovan also made similar claims about townhouses with hundreds of units being proposed for the property in the Fundy Heights FB group… she’s since gone back and deleted all of her comments on the post regarding the Belyea.

If Brent thinks he can stuff 46 units in an arena, I don’t think 100+ units across six acres is completely out of the question. 320 units definitely seems like a major stretch for townhouses.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Paula Radwan Donovan also made similar claims about townhouses with hundreds of units being proposed for the property in the Fundy Heights FB group… she’s since gone back and deleted all of her comments on the post regarding the Belyea.

If Brent thinks he can stuff 46 units in an arena, I don’t think 100+ units across six acres is completely out of the question. 320 units definitely seems like a major stretch for townhouses.

Is the townhouse vs "transitional housing" just a form of a false choice?

https://www.logicalfallacies.org/false-dilemma.html

Also called false dichotomy, fallacy of bifurcation, black-or-white fallacy, the false delamma presents two alternative states as the only possibilities when more possibilities may exist.

As mentioned here, a third choice would be to renew the arena and field?

[adamuptownsj]

We don't know if the townhouse proposal is even real, and if it was, opposition would mostly be along normal 'I don't like it' lines like traffic, privacy, etc. that would at most require a traffic study and a tree buffer from PAC. AFAIK there's been no RFP for the land, and the smaller semi-detached cul-de-sac west of Woodville went to PAC and stopped there. If the townhouse project just east of the Lancaster arena sells quickly, I can see this kind of infill being appealing to the city to approve here too. There's a lot of property tax to squeeze from what would be a relatively cheap per-door services extension.

The odds of this council reversing course on closing the arena are very low. They had a potential private buyer who wanted to reopen it as a hockey camp facility (providing ice time rentals to sports teams/events, IIRC) but did not proceed as it would 'compete' with city rinks, despite high demand for ice time.

Less of a false choice, and more of a choice between a homeless encampment and literally anything else.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

We don't know if the townhouse proposal is even real, and if it was, opposition would mostly be along normal 'I don't like it' lines like traffic, privacy, etc. that would at most require a traffic study and a tree buffer from PAC. AFAIK there's been no RFP for the land, and the smaller semi-detached cul-de-sac west of Woodville went to PAC and stopped there. If the townhouse project just east of the Lancaster arena sells quickly, I can see this kind of infill being appealing to the city to approve here too. There's a lot of property tax to squeeze from what would be a relatively cheap per-door services extension.

The odds of this council reversing course on closing the arena are very low. They had a potential private buyer who wanted to reopen it as a hockey camp facility (providing ice time rentals to sports teams/events, IIRC) but did not proceed as it would 'compete' with city rinks, despite high demand for ice time.

Less of a false choice, and more of a choice between a homeless encampment and literally anything else.

I'll take "literally anything else" for 100 Alex.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Maybe someone can help explain this:

https://pub-saintjohn.escribemeeting...ocumentId=4284

The city’s report values the ENTIRE property at $150,000

This is 6 acres of land where a six story buildings would have 5 storeys of ocean view units… or if something more ambitious was pursued— we could literally be talking about 300+ units in the form of multiple condo towers on this beach adjacent property.



Just in case anyone isn’t aware of where this property is located, I’ve taken the liberty to provide a very basic photoshop of what condos could look like at the property, copied and pasted from the White Rock, BC skyline.

90% of units in this type of condo development would have at least some sort of ocean view… Brent Harris instead wants the city to sell him the property for a song to house homeless people and supposedly in 10 years, erected a soccer dome.


What would be Saint Johners from Island View Heights to Nauwigewauk rather cruise ship passengers see on the West Side skyline as they enter Saint John Harbour: condo towers, or a gigantic, plastic inflatable soccer tent? (Hopefully AIM is cleaned up by then)

Seriously though, how the hell did the city report deem the entire property only worth $150,000? They seem to have had their heads in their asses further than even Brent Harris… who claims the Belyea arena even standing represents a $5 million head start. Which if you read the report, that states Saint John has too many ice surfaces— how in the name of hell does it make sense for the city to keep the Belyea Arena Shut & invest tens of millions to build a new multiplex arena instead?


As this very basic render shows— it’s possible to keep the rink open AND construct condos with hundreds of units, while maintaining considerable green space.

What were these city workers smoking to conclude the entire property— arena building included, could be sold for around $150,000?

In Vancouver, Halifax, Victoria, or even Moncton (if they were a coastal city) this would already be snatched up for building residential towers with seaside views. Moncton is embarrassing Saint John in terms of waterfront development. Moncton’s water front is a muddy river, Saint John’s waterfront is literally something locals tried to describe as one of the 7 natural wonders of the world

One of Brent Harris’s selling points on his pitch is a cafe on the second floor of the abandoned arena with views of Bay of Fundy. This beach adjacent property has potential for hundreds of condos or apartments with ocean, but our loudest city councillor with the worst ideas would rather see the property be developed and built into something much worse for economic development AND demographic growth.


What’s the best course of action here? It 34 people in Moncton can put the scare into the their city council, how the hell do we here in Saint John do something about this potential cluster@$&*? I’m sure @MonctonRad has some ideas?


PS: if anyone could help make a better render of what condos could look like… would be much appreciated!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Is the townhouse vs "transitional housing" just a form of a false choice?

https://www.logicalfallacies.org/false-dilemma.html

Also called false dichotomy, fallacy of bifurcation, black-or-white fallacy, the false delamma presents two alternative states as the only possibilities when more possibilities may exist.

As mentioned here, a third choice would be to renew the arena and field?

I think the only logical fallacy here is the GIGANTIC red herring that is the Soccer Dome and Soccer Facilities inside the former Belyea Arena part of Brent’s bad proposal. If anyone truly believes Brent Harris and his “team” really envision the transitional housing to component to end in ten years, and that there wouldn’t be one attempt after another to extend the use as transitional housing, I’ve got a second Harbour Bridge to sell you.

The soccer usage, especially the dome, is just beyond stupid for smack dab in the middle of a residential neighbourhood.

But again, the even bigger bullshit is the city’s own report that claims we had at least one two many ice surfaces, and that the entire 6 acres of the property would remain not be worth around $150,000 on the open market. (A report that was presented in 2020)

https://pub-saintjohn.escribemeeting...ocumentId=4284

The city’s own report states that 3.5 rinks is what the city needed for its demographic footprint post 2016 demographic bottoming out. Yet, to keep in line with their report, they are going to have to shut down another rink, to keep in like with their own report, of no more than 5 rinks for a population under 90,000.

So if it costs $25,000 or million or more to build a new multiplex with two ice surfaces, I don’t really see the cost savings. It would be cheaper in the short term to reopen the Belyea Arena and get us back to 5 ice surfaces,than it would be to build a new multiplex arena.

People say the reasoning to build a multiplex is to host hockey tournaments, but a two arena multiplex wouldn’t really be that big of a draw. A 3 or 4 ice surface multiplex could be a much bigger draw, and it could be equally funded by the outlying suburbs. It could even be built right on the Saint John-Rothesay border, or the border with Grand Bay. That way we could host tournaments with the semi finals at the Q-Plex and the finals at the Lord Beaverbrook or even TD Station. The sort of set up could make Saint John a great city to host hockey tournaments for teams as far away as Boston or New York.

[sailor734]

6 acres is only 261,360 sq feet. 330 townhouse would be impossible on this foot print. (That would be 792 sq ft per townhouse with ZERO vacant land)

If you want density on this site building upwards is the only option.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

6 acres is only 261,360 sq feet. 330 townhouse would be impossible on this foot print. (That would be 792 sq ft per townhouse with ZERO vacant land)

If you want density on this site building upwards is the only option.

Yes, exactly. Brent Harris is clearly spreading incorrect or misleading information. The only way to comfortably get hundreds of units built on that property, and retain green space, would be to build up. 120 units could easily be constructed over three 10 storey condo towers using mass timber. Even more units could be constructed by building higher with more traditional concrete and steel designs.


So far at least four city councillors have divulged information or admitted to the existence of other proposals for the Belyea property. It’s not a typo, and it’s not just Brent Harris that has spoken to other proposals for the property that aim at building hundreds of new residential units. Perhaps the real bifurcation is the use of the term “townhomes”?


Did you read the report from the city where they estimated the entire property was worth $150,000 on the open market? Even if we doubled it or tripled it based on increases in property value since early 2020 values… that total seems quite low. Especially compared to the valuation that gave to the Gorman site (with less land) in the same report, over $500,000.

Does that really make sense for 6 acres of beach adjacent property in the middle of a residential neighbourhood with a standing asset (the Belyea Arena building) which Brent Harris is describing as a $5 million dollar head start?

I’m not sure who is more full of shit, Brent Harris, or the city employees who wrote the report entitled, “Implementing Arena Closure Plan – Sustainability Item”. I’m slightly leaning towards the city employees and previous council for voting on it as they did at this point, but the councillor at large is clearly full of it too.