I'm happy to say that I've never heard of Zeihan
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays
I understand the worker/dependent balance point (and listen to too many videos by Zeihan and others), but economically it really depends what you're counting.
From a development perspective, they're a big and important factor in household counts.
Same with kids. Their numbers affect the volume of school construction most notably.
Really it boils down to both being net sinks economically, but still increasing real estate needs. In balance, we probably spend a larger percentage of total economic activity on buildings, even though doing so is a strain on funding borne by the workforce.
|
I'm content to rely on the Wisdom that comes with 'maturity.'
But give
wong props for being familiar with the data that I wasn't even aware of. It turns out that the Census Bureau tracks the migration of Retirees. Thanks to a CNN piece I also learned that SmartAsset has been using that data to analyze retirement populations for many years.
Where Retirees Are Moving – 2023 Study
APR 17, 2023 by Patrick Villanova, CEPF
Think Sprawl - It's not a Zero Sum Game
Retirement communities are easily a Net Positive. Their best attribute is that they provide stability. They do attract lots of medical facilities so far as those economics go but aside from basic infrastructure they're mostly not a burden, they're low crime areas with slow traffic etc. They do provide jobs for many landscape maintenance workers.
For Retirement areas like Sun City in AZ there's no back yards; instead they have common grassy areas with lots of lemon and orange trees (yes, they're edible). The trees are a nod to their history of once being lemon and orange tree orchards.
Think Affordability
I wasn't aware until I read SmartAsset that last year Mesa, AZ was the top city for new retirement growth. I happen to pick up a family from Canada recently who mentioned they have a relative who retired to a Mobile Home Park in Mesa and loves the living.
Many decades ago Mobile Homes became a popular affordable option in the desert. There must be many thousands of these especially in Phoenix and Mesa both cities with lots of land. Many have swimming pools and grassy park areas and older 'Parks' have mature trees and nice landscaping providing lots of nice shade. I've been in and out of many mobile home parks and my observation is that vey normal people live there.
It's less about a density debate as it is having a healthy supply of affordable options that grew with the area.
At least in the desert, retirement areas don't subtract from a better use of the land. Instead there's plenty of land for all manner of demographics and uses.