Was driving around on Riverside during my lunch hour and came to some definitive conclusions about some things:
1) the Catalyst site is really amazing, but potentially difficult as an option for Amazon. Lots of relocating of tenants, lots of tearing down of buildings, lots of building from the ground up. Even getting a single building up and ready for the first Amazonians to move in in 2019 would be an almost impossible feat, knowing how permitting and approvals work in our city. Catalyst is a really raw development opportunity, and I feel like that's not what Amazon would jump at.
2) I think Amazon WOULD jump at the Statesman site in a flash. In some ways it's as raw as the Catalyst site (nothing move-in ready for a modern corporate HQ) but it's just such a plum part of one of the most vibrant and exciting cities in the country. As the city itself has envisioned, it's the perfect place for a cohesive corporate campus.
I mean, you could throw that rendering down on the boardroom table in front of Bezos, write "HQ2" in black Sharpie over top of those buildings, and essentially close the deal right there. Ahem. So long as you had a walletful of incentive cash from the State of Texas.
3) I still feel that we're even money to get HQ2, all things considered. There're too many Amazon "feels" here, in addition to the other boxes that we check. Also, I think it's seldom mentioned but now that Whole Foods is gone, we're light on corporate HQs. I think that's a major leadership void that Amazon could take advantage of in blockbuster ways.
4) I think we're going to get the Columbus MLS team, and the stadium is going to Butler Park. Not just because Precourt already seems like he's headed that way, but also because the Statesman tract is too valuable to Amazon, or an Amazon-like suitor. I actually think we're primed to win something marquee -- our prevalence on the various HQ2 speculation lists has just confirmed it for me. Even if Amazon passes on us, that just means there's still opportunity for someone else.
Anyway, lots of pieces feel like they're falling into place for Austin all of a sudden. There's no science behind that, just a hunch, but I get the sense that we're going to hit a new gear soon.