Climate change predicted to transform Vancouver into San Diego, but at a heavy cost

[Sheba]

A major climate-change study predicts temperatures in Metro Vancouver will exceed those of present-day Southern California in the coming decades.

Frost and ice will become virtually a thing of the past, heating bills will drop, and farm crops will flourish virtually year-round in the Fraser Valley.

That’s the good news.

On the down side — and there is plenty of it — the region can expect: air-conditioning costs to soar; worsening smog and associated health problems; increased forest fires and water shortages; summer droughts followed by severe fall rain events; and an influx of invasive species threatening forests and agriculture.

A new 70-page study, Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver, predicts changes in temperature and precipitation that will affect everything from sewage pipes to ski hills in the 2050s — just 33 years distant — and 2080s. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, based at the University of Victoria, assisted in the report.

The report’s author, Jeff Carmichael, division manager of utilities research and innovation for Metro Vancouver, said the findings are meant to help the region and its member municipalities plan for the future while doing their own part to reduce greenhouse gases.

It is common for municipalities now to have staff specifically devoted to climate-change issues.

“Let’s make sure that all of Metro Vancouver — everything we do — is aware of the most up-to-date information,” he said. “We’d better prepare and adapt for the climate that’s coming.”

Metro Vancouver plans to launch a more detailed study later this year into planning for stormwater pipes to ensure they can handle the more intense rain events to come. Municipalities on the rainy North Shore will have to address similar issues, while low-lying areas such as Richmond and Delta must consider factors such as the impact of rising ocean levels, storm surges and altered river flows.

Parks staff are also considering how climate change will affect plant and animal species under a warming scenario.

The report assumes a “business as usual” approach to global greenhouse gas emissions, and would have to be updated if governments adopt serious and swift measures to address the problem.

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Vancouver Sun