Calgary 2013 Civic Census

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by RyLucky

Good to be a part of a healthy, thriving city!

Yes, love that there is a mix of urban revitalization/intensification and outward sprawl. Love that Calgary seems to be evolving in a very organic way and love that Calgarians are willing to invest in their community. Bodes well for mainstreet businesses across the city.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by kw5150

This inspired me to take a google satellite tour of the non-thriving Detroit. How is a city like that going to re-invent itself? The density for 5 miles around the core is so minimal it is hard to comprehend. Calgary is SUCH a different city than Detroit and we have a volatile economy at times as well. What the hell happened there?

Being less auto-centric with a focus on placemaking I think would have resulted in better outcomes. Add in crippling pension liabilities and unions that behave as if they are the masters of the universe and voila: catastrophe.

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by Doug

But is the unicity at risk? The drop from 95% to 90% (or whatever the real number is, sure it is around there) happened very quickly. In 10-15 years, it could be 75%. In most CMA's that is due to the central city being landlocked. That is not the case in Calgary. Unicity municipal governance model is Calgary's main advantage as it largely sidesteps the endlessly inter-municipal squabbling that weighs down every other metro.

There is zero chance of the unicity model failing over the next 10-15 years.

This is because it already happened over the past 10-15 years. Combining the ring road (which provides much more benefit for commuting to, from and between the outlying communities than for Calgary) and the shift in development to outside the city limits -- Cross Iron Mills, the big intermodal rail facility in Rocky View, the big box in east Calgary that was approved contra Plan It because otherwise it would go into Chestermere -- we are already in a regional context, without any governance structures to manage it effectively.

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by Radley77

Yes, love that there is a mix of urban revitalization/intensification and outward sprawl. Love that Calgary seems to be evolving in a very organic way and love that Calgarians are willing to invest in their community. Bodes well for mainstreet businesses across the city.

I really like to see the concentric rings as the neighbourhoods age, they depopulate as kids grow and move away (i.e. 20 - 25 years after buildout). Then stabilize at an aging, slightly decreasing population phase for 10 or 20 years, then repopulate as the housing stock is rebuilt and densified.

Quite a remarkable organic-growth city. Really excited about the NE growth too, I would like to see that growth develop into a few more organized nodes in the future (ie. TOD, 17th ave SE, Forest Lawn, Albert Park etc.)

[RicoLance21]

Originally Posted by kw5150

This inspired me to take a google satellite tour of the non-thriving Detroit. How is a city like that going to re-invent itself? The density for 5 miles around the core is so minimal it is hard to comprehend. Calgary is SUCH a different city than Detroit and we have a volatile economy at times as well. What the hell happened there?

You should take a look at a typical rural area of eastern China. If some Chinese residents were to teleport to these areas of Detroit, they would think they are in an isolated rural area. That is how minimal Detriot's inner city is...

TBH, I think some parts of Detroit should just revert back to nature--remove all lights and fixtures, let roads and sidewalks crumble, plant trees and turn abandoned neighbourhoods into a forest like it once was.

[RyLucky]

Maybe unrelated, but one thing I love about Calgary is how the Ctrain extends all the way to new, peripheral communities. At first, I thought this was kind of strange (there are more central areas with poorer service and greater demand). Although I understood several benefits to having LRT that extends the length of the city (longer continuous lines, lower ROW capital cost, increasingly larger concentric catchment arcs, etc), it took me years to realize one of the greatest benefits to this approach. And here is my point: serving both the inner and outer city has helped unify our psychology as a unicity. Not only have long radial lines increased building density in the core, but it has helped convince those in the suburbs of the social good of public investment. In my opinion, servicing the suburbs, as sprawling and unsustainable as they may be, has resulted in a shift in politics and worldview in these wards. For most Calgarians, the suburbs were where we grew up and formed the opinions and political views we would carry into adulthood. Being connected to the inner city during these formative years can affect our mindset. For decades to come, political power in this city will reside in the suburbs, which is fine so long as we all remember we are part of something greater. Other cities (ie, Toronto/GTA, tons of US cities) have failed to keep up with their sprawling suburbs, which has caused a sharp political divide, ultimately to the detriment of the inner city. As a denizen of the inner city, this census has reminded me that the suburbs are an important ally in realizing a great city. My only hope is that transit is able to keep up with growth in underserviced corridors (SELRT, NCLRT, etc) so that we might better connect these people as well.

Sorry for the diversion! If anyone want to comment to this, meet me at the transit thread!

[RyLucky]

Woah! Was anyone else surprised to see so much growth in Ward 5?

[Nudrock]

Originally Posted by RyLucky

Woah! Was anyone else surprised to see so much growth in Ward 5?

Not sure but the increase might be due to ward realignment. I think that there is a clause in the report stating that year-over-year ward comparisons should not be done because of the boundaries being redrawn.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Doug_Cgy

I left the 'burbs earlier this year and moved to the Downtown West End. Best decision I ever made. Close to everything (parks/shopping/transit/nightlife & restaurants), it's so convenient.

You're clearly in the minority, as that area dropped in population (again). On the positive side, I hear some of the prices are not too bad, especially in those buildings having massive water issues in the parkades.

[Doug_Cgy]

Originally Posted by suburbia

You're clearly in the minority, as that area dropped in population (again). On the positive side, I hear some of the prices are not too bad, especially in those buildings having massive water issues in the parkades.

The area lost what, 50 people? I'd say that's pretty stable. I loathed where I lived before. Car dependant, not walkable, lots of drug houses. Much better life down here.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Doug_Cgy

The area lost what, 50 people? I'd say that's pretty stable. I loathed where I lived before. Car dependant, not walkable, lots of drug houses. Much better life down here.

At a time when the City is growing leaps and bounds. And by the way, they lost at least 57, counter-balanced by an incoming basement swimmer, netting a loss of 56

Population of Downtown West End

2010: 2,490
2011: 2,483
2012: 2,322
2013: 2,278

Indeed, the trend is quite stable. Loss of over 8.5% over those four years.

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by suburbia

You're clearly in the minority, as that area dropped in population (again). On the positive side, I hear some of the prices are not too bad, especially in those buildings having massive water issues in the parkades.

It sounds as though you are implying that the majority of people are moving from the inner city to the suburbs.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by RyLucky

It sounds as though you are implying that the majority of people are moving from the inner city to the suburbs.

Well they are moving somewhere (possibly from other inner city areas to the Beltline), or do you feel they are simply dying and not being replaced, or transitioning to a homeless lifestyle?

It is not a major trend, but I think affordability is getting the best of some people.

I'm really curious what happens next year, given the flooding, and if over a number of years there remains an impact.

[fusili]

Originally Posted by RyLucky

It sounds as though you are implying that the majority of people are moving from the inner city to the suburbs.

RyLucky, learn the block function. It is amazing. You can go on the forum, discuss topics in a mature fashion, and avoid all trolling. It is beautiful.

[kw5150]

Ya Im putting Suburbia back on ignore.

[Spring2008]

Supply lags demand. Beltline grew by 500 residences which is pretty impressive considering only Luna was completed in this census period. I'm assuming Beltline will be at 1,000+ new residents per year over the next 5-10 years with the amount of product being built and planned right now.

As far as the West End goes, yeah, it's been pretty stagnant; not much new product there lately. Unless the area is able to attract more amenities, East Village and the Beltline are going to absorb most of the new growth over the next while. The downtown commercial core had growth within the 6-10% range though; really good for one year, and East village was also in the positive territory before the new supply even hits the market.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by MasterG

I really like to see the concentric rings as the neighbourhoods age, they depopulate as kids grow and move away (i.e. 20 - 25 years after buildout). Then stabilize at an aging, slightly decreasing population phase for 10 or 20 years, then repopulate as the housing stock is rebuilt and densified.

Quite a remarkable organic-growth city. Really excited about the NE growth too, I would like to see that growth develop into a few more organized nodes in the future (ie. TOD, 17th ave SE, Forest Lawn, Albert Park etc.)

The other aspect of the current state of growth is that it is very predictable in nature.

Consider that our city council is very stable, and Calgarians heavily favour incumbents. With a high degree of predictability, citizens will feel comfortable making long term financial decisions and will accept lower financial yields.

And one of the other outcomes is with a bit of capital appreciation that happens is that it will continue to allow citizens to take money out of there homes for small startup companies. This in turns drives small business and will help to keep Calgary with the highest amount of corporate headquarters per capita.

Other aspects like Calgary's low crime rates despite having super high population growth, young demographics and low amounts of police per capita indicate high amounts of social capital. There's a *buzz* in this city, and I think nowhere else was this more evident than the rapid bounce back from the floods.

[horrorshow]

Originally Posted by freeweed

I give Airdrie 20 years as an independent community. And even that might be cut short depending on what effect things like CrossIron have, if any.

This would be horrible... Airdrie is one of the key communities that Calgary needs to annex to curtail sprawl.

[Just Build It]

I don't know why you're bring up those facts? The fact that the Beltline has double the number of vacancies of the next neighbourhood means absolutely nothing.

You can't compare population growth and empty dwellings in a new neighbourhood like Panormama to the Beltline. In a neighbourhood like Panorama, houses are built as they are sold, where as dwellings in the Beltline are built en masse as part of a large development, despite all the units being sold, and there is a lag time for rest of the units to sell.

The fact that the Beltline grew by 500 people, and continues to grow, and has been growing every year is the story here. Get over it.

Originally Posted by suburbia

See facts here:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6210188&postcount=86

510 vacant dwellings in the beltline. Not all of these are new to the most recent cycle, as only 400 were added (though almost 500 were added the year before).

The next highest number of vacancies of any area in Calgary has less than half the number of beltline vacancies.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by fusili

RyLucky, learn the block function. It is amazing. You can go on the forum, discuss topics in a mature fashion, and avoid all trolling. It is beautiful.

Yeah I don't get why people engage the guy, he has 100% proven that he doesn't care about logic or facts and is more interested in arguing.