Floodwatch

[1ajs]

Winnipeg Free Press - ONLINE EDITION
Province, residents prepare for deliberate dike breach
By: Bartley Kives and Melissa Martin
Posted: 05/10/2011 11:40 AM



Map shows the effects of the Hoop and Holler cut.
RM of PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - The province has closed down Provincial Road 331 southeast of Portage la Prairie in preparation for the "Hoop and Holler Cut," a hole in Assiniboine dike officials hope will prevent the river from spilling its banks elsewhere.
Excavators are moving earth and dump trucks are dropping off loads of riprap to prepare to cut a 65-metre hole in the road to allow the Assiniboine River to spill into the Elm River and eventually the La Salle River. This section of road is known as Hoop and Holler Bend

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...121573899.html

[1ajs]

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Brandonites must evacuate
About 1,000 forced to leave homes
By: Ian Hitchen and Keith Borkowsky
Posted: 05/10/2011 1:00 AM

BRANDON -- About 1,000 Brandonites living near the surging Assiniboine River have been ordered to evacuate and about another 1,000 are expecting to be on the move soon.
City councillors and police went door-to-door Monday to issue the first wave of notices for the precautionary, but mandatory, evacuation.

Senior Edith Sumner and her cat, Kitty, were ready to go. A few days ago, Sumner resisted when friends suggested she should leave -- but a police officer at her door Monday morning was a hint she should go.
"No fooling around; I can't say no," said Sumner, who had her belongings stacked by her door.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...121551174.html

[1ajs]

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Swollen Lake Manitoba forces evacuation of cattle
By: Bill Redekop
Posted: 05/10/2011 1:00 AM

OGAR ---- People who live around Lake Manitoba should prepare for their flood of the century -- lake levels even greater than flooding in 1955 -- due to water diverted from the Assiniboine River.
Provincial officials told ranchers here to prepare to evacuate 100,000 cattle in one or two weeks as Lake Manitoba expands.

You have to go now and start searching today" for a temporary home for your cows, said Manitoba Agriculture's Ray Bittner. Many of those cattle will have to be transported to government-owned public pastures in Alberta and Saskatchewan because there is no room in Manitoba.
Houses will have to be diked and Highway 68, which passes through Lake Manitoba Narrows, is expected to be flooded unless it can be built up.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...121551094.html

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by 1ajs

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Brandonites must evacuate
About 1,000 forced to leave homes
By: Ian Hitchen and Keith Borkowsky
Posted: 05/10/2011 1:00 AM

BRANDON -- About 1,000 Brandonites living near the surging Assiniboine River have been ordered to evacuate and about another 1,000 are expecting to be on the move soon.
City councillors and police went door-to-door Monday to issue the first wave of notices for the precautionary, but mandatory, evacuation.

Senior Edith Sumner and her cat, Kitty, were ready to go. A few days ago, Sumner resisted when friends suggested she should leave -- but a police officer at her door Monday morning was a hint she should go.
"No fooling around; I can't say no," said Sumner, who had her belongings stacked by her door.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...121551174.html

Brandon city council should never have allowed the development of the flood plain. I remember as a kid that area flooding every spring.

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Brandon city council should never have allowed the development of the flood plain. I remember as a kid that area flooding every spring.

people forget and somone push's to make a buck and people give in

[rrskylar]

How is the new provincial flood forecaster working out? Looks like a replacement is going to be needed soon!

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

How is the new provincial flood forecaster working out? Looks like a replacement is going to be needed soon!

And how was he to predict two broken gauges, a foot and a half of snow, and a week of rain?

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Brandon city council should never have allowed the development of the flood plain. I remember as a kid that area flooding every spring.

Because there is a near zero chance of flooding between all of the control measures in place (Shellmouth Resivour, Portage Diversion, and Portage Diversion Control Structure). The entire province is flooding. This year is rather extraordinary.

Originally Posted by CBC News

Ashton described the Assiniboine River flood of 2011 as a once-in-300-year event.

"This is something we don't have experience with," he said, noting the Assiniboine River is barreling through southern Manitoba carrying the equivalent of half the flow of Niagara Falls.

CBC News Link

[Bdog]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Because there is a near zero chance of flooding between all of the control measures in place (Shellmouth Resivour, Portage Diversion, and Portage Diversion Control Structure). The entire province is flooding. This year is rather extraordinary.

Definitely. It's hard to plan for a 1 in 300 year flood. It's not like Brandon is in a state of emergency every year...

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Bdog

Definitely. It's hard to plan for a 1 in 300 year flood. It's not like Brandon is in a state of emergency every year...

One thing is for sure - the Assiniboine will be prepared for at least a 1 in 300 year event after this.

[SpongeG]

Flooded, evacuated Manitoba city 'surreal'

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/05/10...a-city-surreal


(Jillian Austin, QMI Agency)

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

And how was he to predict two broken gauges, a foot and a half of snow, and a week of rain?

Get up to speed, the province has already back-peddled on the faulty gauge excuse. Human error and poor calculations had more to do with the poor flood control management on the Assiniboine this year!

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

Get up to speed, the province has already back-peddled on the faulty gauge excuse. Human error and poor calculations had more to do with the poor flood control management on the Assiniboine this year!

The province can backpedal all it wants. This has nothing to do with human error. This is a 1 in 300 year event. Two gauges were reading below what the flow was (to the tune of 10%) and there was 24cm of snow and there has been rain and there will be more.

What about the flood control management of the Assiniboine was poor? The Shellmouth Reservoir, the Portage Diversion, and the Portage Diversion Control Structure are all at or above capacity, in fact, there is so much water going through the diversion that Lake Manitoba is at a 50 year high in terms of its level, so what do you think should have been done differently?

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

The province can backpedal all it wants. This has nothing to do with human error. This is a 1 in 300 year event. Two gauges were reading below what the flow was (to the tune of 10%)

Gauges don't measure flow, they measure level. Flow is calculated. Mentions of "flow measurement" in the media are incorrect.

I think maybe someone forgot to carry the 1.

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

This has nothing to do with human error.

Non-politicized engineers say differently.

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by Bdog

Definitely. It's hard to plan for a 1 in 300 year flood. It's not like Brandon is in a state of emergency every year...

I do not think 1 in 300 can be measured. There are not 300 years of records in the Assiniboine valley. Plus things have changed including diking, which concentrates flows, and drainage works which add to flow. Maybe even the climate has changed.

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by Riverman

Gauges don't measure flow, they measure level. Flow is calculated. Mentions of "flow measurement" in the media are incorrect.

I think maybe someone forgot to carry the 1.

Apparently this is changing according to Wikipedia:

Within the last ten years, the technological advance of velocity sensors has allowed the use of water velocity as a reliable surrogate for streamflow discharge at sites with a stable cross-sectional area. These sensors are permanently mounted in the stream and measure velocity at a particular location in the stream and related to flow in a manner similar to the use of traditional water level.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stream_gauge

I am not sure if the SK and MB authorities have this technology.

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by Stormer

Apparently this is changing according to Wikipedia:

I am not sure if the SK and MB authorities have this technology.

Surely not in Winnipeg.

Open channel flow calculations are fairly simple. Software can easily read out in flow for a given level measurement. Also, where velocity sensors are subject to fouling, level sensors are normally simple and reliable.

I could be wrong of course.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Riverman

Non-politicized engineers say differently.

Then show some who could have done something about 9 feet of water in Brandon in short order. you won't find any.

[Bdog]

Originally Posted by Stormer

I do not think 1 in 300 can be measured. There are not 300 years of records in the Assiniboine valley. Plus things have changed including diking, which concentrates flows, and drainage works which add to flow. Maybe even the climate has changed.

I agree that you cannot measure precisely 1 in 300 years - but, based on the province's calculations, that's the best estimate that we have: Riverman can probably explain it better how they come up with that number (using reccurance interval/return period calculations I'm assuming?).

My point was that this flooding is extremely, extremely rare for Brandon. Almost unprecedented. I was responding to the poster who said they should not have built in the area - well, in hindsight, maybe not, but how could this (so far) 1 time occurance be predicted? That was my point. Like Freeweed stated a while ago: Why build in California? Why build in Florida? Why build in the mid-west? Respectively, devastating earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes hit those regions with much more frequency than this flooding has hit Brandon...