Federal Elections - Page 7

eternallyme · #**121** Posted **Apr 24, 2014, 6:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

It might come soon then , if this is right, and if the PCs win it's because of Ontario again, the 905ers in particular.

Ontario is probably too high for them, but BC and the Prairies too low. Atlantic Canada seems like a Liberal fortress now...

With those kind of numbers, the Ottawa area would likely see no change at all.

McC · #**122** Posted **Apr 24, 2014, 6:46 PM**

Over the past 20 (even 30?) years, the Liberals have consistently polled high between writs and underperformed on election day. Paul Wells has a a good line about this. And except for the big jump in 1994, their electoral results have been on a pretty steady decline for decades. If you think that the Liberals are in good shape, and haven't read Wells' last book, I would suggest you do so (and then meet me back here!), if you have, I am curious where your optimism comes from?. I don't count them out -- JT has performed surprisingly well so far, and made some astute choices about his team, etc. -- but rookies rarely win against incumbents in Canadian politics, and PMSH is one heck of an incumbent.

Cre47 · #**123** Posted **Apr 25, 2014, 2:15 AM**

The Angus-Reid poll has some really weird returns.

The other poll (EKOS) in April had those Grits and Tory numbers basically inverted in Ontario while the Tories were substantially ahead in the Prairies (excludng the Alberta numbers). While the Provincial Liberals are unpopular, the federal Tories are even more unpopular with all the scandals and other nonsens (Soudas/Adams, Duffy/Brazeau, etc, Pollievre's election reform bill and the Medical Marihuana reform fiasco)

The Ontario and Prairies numbers don't make sense so I will count them as outliars. Even BC with the NDP at front seems to be out a bit and even Quebec as well as the EKOS showed the NDP 19 behind and in this one they are 4 ahead and this one week only after the EKOS poll. And there have been more news (scandals) harmful to the Conservatives and the NDP than the Liberals between the two polls

Note the EKOS poll had a sample three times larger too.

1overcosc · #**124** Posted **Apr 25, 2014, 4:25 PM**

Ya 1,505 is a really small sample size.

YOWetal · #**125** Posted **Apr 25, 2014, 6:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by McC

Over the past 20 (even 30?) years, the Liberals have consistently polled high between writs and underperformed on election day. Paul Wells has a a good line about this. And except for the big jump in 1994, their electoral results have been on a pretty steady decline for decades. If you think that the Liberals are in good shape, and haven't read Wells' last book, I would suggest you do so (and then meet me back here!), if you have, I am curious where your optimism comes from?. I don't count them out -- JT has performed surprisingly well so far, and made some astute choices about his team, etc. -- but rookies rarely win against incumbents in Canadian politics, and PMSH is one heck of an incumbent.

I agree that it will be a tough election and if the NDP remain above %20 the most likely result is another conservative win. But rookie’s do knock off Incumbents Governments. Joe Clark, Mulroney and Chretien were all rookie leaders (granted the last two beat replacement leaders after incumbents had fled the sinking ships). Harper came close as a rookie in 2004. 1979 is probably a good analogy with a basically popular but somewhat tired government facing a young and dynamic leader.

lrt's friend · #**126** Posted **Apr 25, 2014, 8:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I agree that it will be a tough election and if the NDP remain above %20 the most likely result is another conservative win. But rookie’s do knock off Incumbents Governments. Joe Clark, Mulroney and Chretien were all rookie leaders (granted the last two beat replacement leaders after incumbents had fled the sinking ships). Harper came close as a rookie in 2004. 1979 is probably a good analogy with a basically popular but somewhat tired government facing a young and dynamic leader.

Joe Clark was dynamic? Oh, so that is why his nickname was Joe Who.

Uhuniau · #**127** Posted **Apr 26, 2014, 3:45 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Ya 1,505 is a really small sample size.

I hope you're being facetious.

1overcosc · #**128** Posted **Apr 26, 2014, 2:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

I hope you're being facetious.

I was being serious. Given all the sampling bias errors that pollsters accumulate, 1505 is a pretty small sample size for 28 million electors.

If the samples they gathered were purely representative, then 1505 is plenty. But the problem is they're not. All forms of gathering data create sampling bias:

1) Calling people on landlines--thus excluding the large number of people who don't have landline telephones. These people are disproportionately likely to vote NDP.
2) Internet polling--thus excluding people who don't go on the internet. These people are disproportionately likely to vote Conservative.
3) Calling people on mobile phones--excludes those without them, who are more likely to vote Conservative.

Most pollsters these days include a mix of all 3 but getting the balance exactly right is almost impossible. So you need LARGE sample sizes (5000+) to get an accurate picture--especially when you're breaking the data down to get numbers by region, sex, age, etc.

Uhuniau · #**129** Posted **Apr 27, 2014, 3:25 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I was being serious. Given all the sampling bias errors that pollsters accumulate, 1505 is a pretty small sample size for 28 million electors.

Noop. Is not. Is also not an uncommon sample size for a nationwide poll... in the U.S.

Cre47 · #**130** Posted **May 3, 2014, 4:16 PM**

Ekos back with a sampling 2-3 times as larger as the previous two and the gap slightly dropped. Though let's wait and see if the latest on the Rob Ford scandal will affect the Conservatives (I know it's municipal - but considering he is friends with some MPs - and that also included the late Jim Flaherty). Of note, the other two polls were made online while Ekos it was made by ways of IVR (interactive voice response).

And even if Nigel Wright no longer been investigated. As far as I know, Mike Duffy and Patrick Brazeau (even if they are independants now) and Saulie Zajdel (former James Moore staffer and ex-Conservative candidate arrested at the same as the former interim mayor of Montreal) are each still charged for breach of trust and fraud regarding their own scandals. And there is also the Dimitri Soudas/Eve Adams scandal that happen a couple of weeks. So it's not over yet for the Conservatives regarding scandals

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...may_2_2014.pdf

kwoldtimer · #**131** Posted **May 3, 2014, 9:48 PM**

Rob Ford's shiny roller coaster to self-destruction will have no effect on the upcoming federal election.

Uhuniau · #**132** Posted **May 5, 2014, 4:23 AM**

Nine years in (!) is about when scandals that previously didn't stick to a government, start sticking.

agl · #**133** Posted **May 5, 2014, 5:03 PM**

The Conservatives are now attacking the judiciary at the highest level after losing a few rounds at the Supreme Court. This after Harper personally named 5 of the 8 currently sitting judges, plus the current Chief Justice was first appointed to the Court by a previous Conservative government in 1989. While we do not thankfully mirror the US Supreme Court and their partisan appointments, you'd think Harper would have had a bit of an edge in that he controlled who was appointed to the bench.

Maybe the problem is not with the judges, or the Chief Justice in particular, but with the side the Government is on for the cases that come before the Court. But of course the modus operandi remains the same: attack and attack some more when you don't get your way.

Cre47 · #**134** Posted **May 19, 2014, 11:43 PM**

ex-chief Vern White, might be running in Kanata-Carleton if Gordon O'Connor (who is 75) is not running for re-election.

They are putting a well-known name in what appeared to be a safe seat, although are they putting a well-known name because the Conservatives are thinking what I'm thinking - that Kanata-Carleton is not that a safe seat in the next election for the Conservatives.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/News/ca...474/story.html

1overcosc · #**135** Posted **May 20, 2014, 3:34 PM**

^ It really isn't.

Over the past few years as Kanata continues to explode in population, Carleton-Mississippi Mills has changed from being a mostly rural riding to being a mostly urban one. Provincially, we've seen Liberal support increase. Global made a poll-by-poll map of the 2011 election results, and the Liberals actually won most polls in Kanata proper.

Now with the redistribution removing Mississippi Mills & Stittsville (the most Conservative parts of the riding), the Liberals have an even bigger chance. This one may flip next year.

J.OT13 · #**136** Posted **May 20, 2014, 4:16 PM**

I'm just glad he's not running for City Hall.

eternallyme · #**137** Posted **May 27, 2014, 2:18 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

^ It really isn't.

Over the past few years as Kanata continues to explode in population, Carleton-Mississippi Mills has changed from being a mostly rural riding to being a mostly urban one. Provincially, we've seen Liberal support increase. Global made a poll-by-poll map of the 2011 election results, and the Liberals actually won most polls in Kanata proper.

Now with the redistribution removing Mississippi Mills & Stittsville (the most Conservative parts of the riding), the Liberals have an even bigger chance. This one may flip next year.

West Carleton remains in the riding though (at least for one more decade - after 2021, Kanata will surely be its own riding), and that is as conservative as it gets.

Yet Nepean-Carleton was a mostly suburban riding and is a stronghold for the Conservatives...although maybe a bit less so after redistribution. It does lose rural areas to the new Rideau-Carleton (surely to be a conservative fortress) and gains a few urban areas from Ottawa West-Nepean (a swing riding).

1overcosc · #**138** Posted **May 27, 2014, 2:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eternallyme

West Carleton remains in the riding though (at least for one more decade - after 2021, Kanata will surely be its own riding), and that is as conservative as it gets.

Yet Nepean-Carleton was a mostly suburban riding and is a stronghold for the Conservatives...although maybe a bit less so after redistribution. It does lose rural areas to the new Rideau-Carleton (surely to be a conservative fortress) and gains a few urban areas from Ottawa West-Nepean (a swing riding).

Nepean-Carleton & Carleton-Mississippi Mills have different suburban areas, though. Looking at poll-by-poll maps, Barrhaven is practically pure blue whereas Kanata has large red areas.

Yes West Carleton is still in the riding but its much smaller than Kanata. Kanata makes up 80% of the population of the new riding. Its likely to remain Conservative in the 2015 election, but with the Liberals will come a healthy second. This one is no longer a safe Tory seat. Once the new ridings propogate to Queen's Park, the new Carleton-Kanata riding will be a prime target for an OLP acquisition, as the OLP does better in suburban areas than the LPC does.

The redistribution ultimately will be bad for the Conservatives. While transposing the 2011 results onto the new boundaries does result in a slight gains for the Conservatives, that's only because Harper swept Ontario's suburbs.

What the 2013 Representation Order does, is it increases suburban representation at the expense of the countryside. What it does, is it reduces the % of seats representing Conservative strongholds, and increases the % of seats representing areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable.

Uhuniau · #**139** Posted **May 27, 2014, 4:59 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

What the 2013 Representation Order does, is it increases suburban representation at the expense of the countryside. What it does, is it reduces the % of seats representing Conservative strongholds, and increases the % of seats representing areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable.

This.

A lot of (dumb) pundits talk about how the redistribution creates new "Conservative" seats. They probably talked about the two previous ones as creating "Liberal" seats. In fact, the growth areas for new ridings tends to be in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver, and those aren't Conservative or Liberal (or NDP)... they are swing seats.

The same phenomenon is present, on a smaller scale, in Orleans and Ottawa West. When the tide turns (and I sense that it already has), they will be among the first seats to go Liberal again. Probably explains too why John Baird shuffled himself outwards by one riding for 2015.

Cre47 · #**140** Posted **May 27, 2014, 11:22 PM**

Large red zones in Kanata would probably be like Katimavik-Hazeldean, Glen Cairn and perhaps older parts of Bridlewood? I haven't seen the poll-by-poll map though. that would be awesome if we can find the link for it.

The latest Forum poll has the Grits leading by 8 in Ontario. 6 overall but the changes versus the previous Forum poll were only between Grits and NDP