Posted Dec 20, 2019, 3:46 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 37,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winnipegger
I see a lot of comparisons of Portage Place's original development in the late 1980s to the current proposal, with some saying that it's just going to be a repeat of what happened 30 years ago - a massive investment (this time private instead of public) that will lead to nothing.
I want to remind everyone that there is one key ingredient that makes today's environment different from the environment in the 1980s which I believe significantly increases the odds of success for this project: people.
From 1980 to 1989, Winnipeg grew by around 45,000 people that decade and population growth tapered down quite a bit towards the late 1980s and early 90s, right when Portage Place opened up (1987). Then a recession hit Canada (and Winnipeg) in the early to mid 1990s, and Winnipeg's population growth virtually stagnated, with our population only growing by 13 or 14 thousand people from 1990 to 1999 - Winnipeg's population even shrunk in the late 1990s which is extremely rare for a Canadian city. Things were not good.
But since then, things have changed a lot. Winnipeg grew by over 30,000 people from 2000 to 2009, and we will have grown by almost 100,000 people from 2010 to 2019, which is likely the second largest population growth by decade since Winnipeg's formation in the late 1800s. If Winnipeg's population continue to grows at the current rate (around 10,000 people per year), there's a good chance we will add another 90 to 100 thousand people over the next 10 years.
For both residential and non-residential investment to be successful, having people is the most basic ingredient required. Sure, there are many other factors that determine success but without a growing population, new residential, commercial, or employment space investments mean attracting people from other parts of the city to their detriment, or being unsuccessful in doing so leading to a project's failure.
But with record population growth (and with population growth comes the need for employment space and commercial/recreation space), people need a place to live and work. That's why projects in our downtown core will be more successful now than they were in the 1980s and 1990s - because our population is actually growing, not stagnating. That's why we are seeing record levels of private investment in Winnipeg today compared to 20 years ago - because there is actual demand for it, not because government is trying to stimulate artificial demand in face of a stagnate population.
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I appreciate the thoughtful post and I take your point that this project makes more sense than the original Portage Place did, i.e. in retrospect building a big mall downtown at a time when the economy was reeling and the population was stagnant and we were at the absolute peak of the boomer "I hate downtown" mentality was probably doomed to fail.
As you point out, building residential and office space during a time of growth seems likelier to succeed. But one wrench in the spokes of that theory is the fact that downtown Winnipeg faces a particularly daunting social reality. That part won't change when the "new" Portage Place opens its doors. Will Starlight manage to make the north Portage area a place where people don't mind being after dark? I mean, I hope so, but...
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