Does Toronto have the same magnetic pull among Canadians that NYC has for Americans?

[Docere]

I can only find province of birth by province and not metro area.

Ontario

Newfoundland 76,505 0.5%
Maritimes 176,870 1.3%
Quebec 320,660 2.3%
Manitoba 78,150 0.6%
Saskatchewan 44,835 0.3%
Alberta 97,835 0.7%
BC 86,905 0.6%

Alberta

Newfoundland 51,475 1.2%
Maritimes 87,715 2.1%
Quebec 58,535 1.4%
Ontario 230,970 5.5%
Manitoba 98,650 2.4%
Saskatchewan 214,970 5.1%
BC 184,455 4.4%

British Columbia

Newfoundland 17,045 0.3%
Maritimes 53,780 1.1%
Quebec 73,620 1.5%
Ontario 286,295 5.8%
Manitoba 107,055 2.2%
Saskatchewan 126,210 2.6%
Alberta 277,095 5.6%

[raggedy13]

Originally Posted by Nite

By Canadian standards that is large. Most Canadian would consider Vancouver in the early 90's a large Canadian city.
They are in the same population range as cities like Liverpool, Dublin, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Valencia, Turin, Porto, Marseille, Helsinki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...European_Union

Contrary to what most think Canada has a lot of large cities (over 1.5 million). Besides the US I don't think any other developed country has more than 6 cities larger than 1.5 million.

Based on the list you provided, it looks like Germany has 6 over 1.5 million:

• Ruhr
• Berlin
• Cologne
• Hamburg
• Munich
• Frankfurt

Japan also appears to have 10 over 1.5 million.

But to your point, Canada does do surprising well considering it has about half the population of Germany, one-third that of Japan, and less than many other large developed countries with fewer large cities.

[raggedy13]

Originally Posted by Docere

I can only find province of birth by province and not metro area.

Ontario

Newfoundland 76,505 0.5%
Maritimes 176,870 1.3%
Quebec 320,660 2.3%
Manitoba 78,150 0.6%
Saskatchewan 44,835 0.3%
Alberta 97,835 0.7%
BC 86,905 0.6%

Alberta

Newfoundland 51,475 1.2%
Maritimes 87,715 2.1%
Quebec 58,535 1.4%
Ontario 230,970 5.5%
Manitoba 98,650 2.4%
Saskatchewan 214,970 5.1%
BC 184,455 4.4%

British Columbia

Newfoundland 17,045 0.3%
Maritimes 53,780 1.1%
Quebec 73,620 1.5%
Ontario 286,295 5.8%
Manitoba 107,055 2.2%
Saskatchewan 126,210 2.6%
Alberta 277,095 5.6%

I think Western Canada - BC and Alberta particularly - have been more of a draw for Canadians than Toronto is for the rest of the country, as these numbers suggest. BC has a lifestyle draw and Alberta has the true economic draw.

In BC, there are certainly people who move to Toronto, for school and specific jobs, but I don't think it's the draw it once was, especially given the high cost of living. People in BC are more interested in moving somewhere they can afford to live, which is most often more affordable cities and towns in BC or moving to Alberta, which tends to have higher incomes and cheaper real estate.

[Crawford]

Not sure Ruhr would be considered a city by most. It's obviously a heavily developed, urbanized area, but there's no central city and almost all the cities have differing identities and are physically separated by protected woodlands. But yeah, it's the biggest German population center, by far.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

While there is no doubt some truth to this - Toronto's stature domestically (and perhaps, internationally) is larger than ever - I'm also curious as to how this squares up in the face of record-breaking emigration from Canada in 2023, record-breaking out-migration from Toronto & Ontario, and reports that 40% of Ontarians are "considering" leaving the province entirely.

The rapid growth of Toronto in recent years has likely caused more new problems than it's solved, and has come at the expense of the city's quality of life; arguably leaving it as a less attractive place to live. Young Canadians will continue to flock to it, but will be less likely to build long-term lives & businesses there; while a weak economy and no real competitive advantage on the cost-of-living front will drive the best-and-brightest to opt to go the US or abroad in increasing numbers. After a few decades of improvement on this front, Canada's brain drain is getting worse - not better.

Quite right on all counts. The exodus of Canadians from Toronto for more affordable housing and better quality of life is a fairly recent phenomenon but very real. It boosted population growth in cities like KW, London, and Halifax. Toronto still grew very quickly because the out migration was more than made up by even larger in-migration from foreigners. You see a similar pattern in London UK. Toronto's continued growth isn't guaranteed though.

If Toronto wants to continue rising it will need to address the many mounting problems it faces. It doesn't have the high paying jobs of New York, San Francisco, or Seattle. With very middling wages, a large chunk of people will eventually give up and leave for more affordable places. Standard of living/quality of life are deteriorating while social problems get worse: lots of homelessness, rising crime, and so many aggressive unhinged people.

There's massive investment in PT but commutes and congestion will get worse before it will get better. Urbanization efforts (bike lanes, wider sidewalks, fewer car lanes) are painfully slow. Same goes for green space. They're getting built but they all seem to get rammed with people and dogs the second they open. Grass/trees can only handle do much dog sh*t and urine.

As well as Toronto has managed its growth the last 20 years (a ton more could have gone wrong), I'm not confident Toronto is up to the task of solving the problems it's now facing. I've been in Toronto since 2001 but having been scoping out other places (southern Ontario, Vancouver Island, Maritimes). I love Toronto but things have hit a tipping point.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Quite right on all counts. The exodus of Canadians from Toronto for more affordable housing and better quality of life is a fairly recent phenomenon but very real. It boosted population growth in cities like KW, London, and Halifax...With very middling wages, a large chunk of people will eventually give up and leave for more affordable places. Standard of living/quality of life are deteriorating while social problems get worse: homelessness crime, so many aggressive unhinged people...

...I'm not sure this city is up to the task of solving the problems it's now facing. I've been in Toronto since 2001 but having been scoping out other places to move to (southern Ontario, Vancouver Island, Maritimes).

An important thing to keep in mind is that even if Toronto's affordability and social problems have gotten worse, the affordability and social problems of midsized cities in Ontario - the kinds of places where people who were fed up with Toronto would have decamped to - have gotten dramatically worse.

Toronto isn't the only place with homeless encampments, drug overdoses and spiraling rents. You can find that in places like Belleville, that don't have good jobs, good salaries, or big city amenities. This is the kind of city where, 10 years ago, you could buy a detached house for $200,000 and everybody - even the poorest of the poor - could at least find a place to rent.

[MolsonExport]

Quite right on all counts. The exodus of Canadians from Toronto for more affordable housing and better quality of life is a fairly recent phenomenon but very real. It boosted population growth in cities like KW, London, and Halifax. Toronto still grew very quickly because the out migration was more than made up by even larger in-migration from foreigners. You see a similar pattern in London UK. Toronto's continued growth isn't guaranteed though.

Probably the same story, in the present and/or in decades past, for many primary cities in Western countries.

-New York and Los Angeles
-Paris
-London (UK)
-Sydney and Melbourne

New York has been in this situation since...well, probably for more than a century.

[whatnext]

Eww, no.

[MolsonExport]

What? Next.

[Gresto]

I am afraid there is a failure to communicate.

[Razor]

i agree with the other posters who stated that even for Canadians, NYC and L.A are the de facto places to go make it for those dreaming big..Depending on what and how big your dreams are of course. If your from small town Canada, and your dream is to seek economic opportunity as saay an architect or in the financial field, then you don't have to look South of the border.Toronto is your ticket, the same way that someone with the same goal living in small Texas may look to Dallas or Houston. People from both Small town Texas or Ontario will still look to L.A to pursue an international acting career, or Nashville for a country music career. The border doesn't matter. A place like NYC still has a larger magnetic pull than Toronto for Canadians that really dream big..Toronto does have that large magnetic pull for small town Canadians seeking better opportunity within the country though.

[begratto]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's definitely an Anglo Canadian presence in NYC (and likely other hub cities in U.S.). I don't notice much of a French Canadian presence, but maybe they head to Paris or elsewhere in the world.

There's a French (as in France) expat presence of professionals, particularly in the Cobble Hill-Carroll Gardens areas of brownstone Brooklyn, and a small elite presence on the UES. The French-language private schools in the city proper are all on the UES or in a small corridor in brownstone Brooklyn.

If anything, there are probably way more French people who moved to Montreal to "make it" than Québécois who moved to Paris.

[big T]

Originally Posted by begratto

If anything, there are probably way more French people who moved to Montreal to "make it" than Québécois who moved to Paris.

Different populations.

French folks moving here are looking for an easier playing field, and by and large that is what they're getting. People "make it" here who would never do so back there due to more intense competition for fewer opportunities.

Anyone moving to a global centre of commerce (be it Paris, NYC, Tokyo or another Alpha+/++) does so with an eye to eventually reaching those rarefied top tier roles that largely only exist there. Whether they do make it or not up to that level is irrelevant; folks with the drive and hunger to shoot for that level are by definition a small percentage of any population, hence the vanishingly small number of Québécois (a small pool to start with) who end up moving to those centres - Paris included.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by big T

Anyone moving to a global centre of commerce (be it Paris, NYC, Tokyo or another Alpha+/++) does so with an eye to eventually reaching those rarefied top tier roles that largely only exist there. Whether they do make it or not up to that level is irrelevant; folks with the drive and hunger to shoot for that level are by definition a small percentage of any population, hence the vanishingly small number of Québécois (a small pool to start with) who end up moving to those centres - Paris included.

I think this motivation is being vastly overstated as to why people move to alpha cities. I'd argue that most white collar people land in an NYC simply because that's where the job they were offered is located. And even more people move to NYC because of community (particularly immigrants) or lifestyle.

[big T]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think this motivation is being vastly overstated as to why people move to alpha cities. I'd argue that most white collar people land in an NYC simply because that's where the job they were offered is located. And even more people move to NYC because of community (particularly immigrants) or lifestyle.

Sure. I was addressing the specific case of Quebecois vs French (so, overwhelmingly not refugees), and the subset of people expressly working to make a move happen as a pre-condition to a change in their social and professional situation. So, not intra-company transfers or random job offers.
In the larger scheme of things you're absolutely right.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think this motivation is being vastly overstated as to why people move to alpha cities. I'd argue that most white collar people land in an NYC simply because that's where the job they were offered is located. And even more people move to NYC because of community (particularly immigrants) or lifestyle.

That's certainly true of the many Americans or global immigrants who move to places like NYC - most just want the big city lifestyle or a job in a first-world country amongst members of their communities; but I think the point is that those same factors don't really apply to Canadian (or French) emigrants. There's too much of a barrier for young Canadians who just want the big city lifestyle - those ones go to Toronto; nor are Canadians representative of a typical developing-world immigrant community (and those that do move to the US for economic reasons are just as likely to go anywhere else).

The type of Canadians or Europeans that end up in places like New York (or Los Angeles, Paris, London, etc) tend to be exactly as Big T described: highly-driven people looking to maximize their potential in their chosen field. Or at least those who are fairly advanced in their careers (specifically in some sort of multi-national business) and able to make an easy transition.

[kool maudit]

This is where it differs by country in the way that OP intended to discuss, too. A lot of Canadians end up in Toronto because they were transferred there or they needed to go there for work. With New York, they have made a particular decision for the city on top of those factors.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

That's certainly true of the many Americans or global immigrants who move to places like NYC - most just want the big city lifestyle or a job in a first-world country amongst members of their communities; but I think the point is that those same factors don't really apply to Canadian (or French) emigrants. There's too much of a barrier for young Canadians who just want the big city lifestyle - those ones go to Toronto; nor are Canadians representative of a typical developing-world immigrant community (and those that do move to the US for economic reasons are just as likely to go anywhere else).

The type of Canadians or Europeans that end up in places like New York (or Los Angeles, Paris, London, etc) tend to be exactly as Big T described: highly-driven people looking to maximize their potential in their chosen field. Or at least those who are fairly advanced in their careers (specifically in some sort of multi-national business) and able to make an easy transition.

Indeed. I think the ability to move to a place like NYC for most Canadians is overstated on this site (well, the Canada subforum). It's predominantly the small fraction of highly skilled people who really are the best of the best in their field. Anecdotally a decent proportion move back once they're at a point that location doesn't really matter to the same degree.

It's simply not that easy to move to a different country and for the average person living the average Canadian lifestyle it's not worth it. Of course a small proportion of Canadians will actively seek out living in a place like NYC or London simply for the experience and will make sacrifices to do so. Everyone I know who's done it comes back poorer than when they left, which was something they expected and don't regret.

Within (anglo) Canada it's not hard to end up in Toronto, either long-term or for a couple years for work. Even with increased cost of living it's not a super hard transition and for those in professional careers the opportunities can make up for it. There certainly is some difference compared to when I was younger when it was easier to just show up and find a cheap apartment - something quite a few people in my wife's friend group from Ottawa did. About half of these still live in central Toronto and have started families, while the other half moved back once kids were in the mix. To be fair it's much harder to do that with Montreal these days too, even if the COL issues aren't as acute.

[Centropolis]

Toronto seems like it has a strong pull for educated and corporate/career minded upper middle class Canadians - because maybe there's not otherwise a huge basket of three to seven million people regions cities that could essentially be interchangeable for upper middle class career paths if you aren't in extraction/oil and gas (Montreal notwithstanding).

NYC on the other hand doesn't really seem like it performs that "corporate upper middle" function outside of the US Northeast (like, I don't feel like people typically transfer from Denver to NYC in their early 40s to be a project manager or low level director or whatever). People I know that are in NYC (and have stayed in NYC beyond their 30s) from my high school are in banking and clearly are aspiring for something more than upper middle.

So, in other words, relatively speaking I feel like Toronto has a stronger pull than NYC.

That is all a 10,000 ft. view, however.

[Acajack]

Another thing is that contrary to the US, I believe all of Canada's major universities (including all of the "comprehensive") are located in the biggest cities.

So you don't have as many Canadian students who get their degree from a university in a smaller city, and then have to move on from there and have to decide which big metro they're going to try and build their career in.

Basically, in Canada you're often going to study in the city where you will have your career.

The universities are major drivers in the growth of young professional populations in all of our metro areas.

Typically in Canada the place you study is the place you will settle down in.

Obviously that's not 100%, and of course it's not unheard of at all in the US for people to do this as well.

But it's way more common in Canada.