Denver One Lincoln Park - Page 7

wong21fr · #**121** Posted **Jul 23, 2005, 9:11 PM**

The "multi-billion" term comes from a discussion I was having with one of the brokers, I am sure she was generalizing. But, if we factor in the cost of land accquisition, we could be talking about a development cost of close to 1,000,000 dollars per unit.

mhays · #**122** Posted **Jul 23, 2005, 10:21 PM**

I'd be shocked the 1,000 units cost much more than $600,000,000, or $600,000 per unit. With 1,000 units, even over a period of several years, it sounds very unlikely that they could sell them for an average of more than $1,000,000 each to make the $1,000,000,000 figure.

To make a wild guess, let's say land prices are in the $200/sf range (I really have no idea about Denver land prices). That would mean 300,000 sf of property (another guess; about 7 acres, assuming the rest of the project isn't quite as dense) would cost $60,000,000. That's $60,000 per unit. It seems easy to make a development work at that price; at some price it gets tough to make things pencil.

With this Phase I tower, it's helpful for land costs that the site is actually fairly moderate in size, rather than a large site where you might have space between buildings. I'd call it 27,000 sf based upon 76 parking spaces times a guess of 350 sf each. That would be $5,400,000 for the land. Plus other related expenses, such as financing, insurance, and taxes with no revenue for a few years.

DenverInfill · #**123** Posted **Jul 23, 2005, 11:17 PM**

Don't forget they also said 150,000 SF of office space. That's part of the $1 billion.

mhays · #**124** Posted **Jul 23, 2005, 11:57 PM**

Ok, add $30,000,000 for the office.

wong21fr · #**125** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:12 AM**

Probabally looking at a total project cost of just over a billion dollars, including land accquisition.

I think that the "multi-billion" term was used loosely.

comoneymaker · #**126** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:23 AM**

It also says homes though, not condos...these means like a miny stapelton project probally

mhays · #**127** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:25 AM**

Are you saying they plan houses a block from the CBD?!

Condos are homes. The idea that "home" meant "house" was invented by advertisers for the sprawl industry.

mhays · #**128** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:29 AM**

wong21fr, to put it less ambiguously, there's no way in hell it's a billion dollars with a thousand units and the little amount of office space, even with land. Maybe they were talking about a much larger scope, or talking about the entire Downtown pipeline.

bcp · #**129** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:38 AM**

comoney, from where do you draw some of these conculsions?

there was an earlier statement that the total build out by the osborns would be "multi billion dollars" in developement for this building plus the options they have on surrounding parcels......certainly not just this one buliding, probably 200million for this would be my wild ass guess.

mhays · #**130** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 12:47 AM**

Didn't the paper say $140,000,000?

wong21fr · #**131** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 1:28 AM**

Hey, I'm just stating what the broker said. Maybe she's right, maybe she's wrong, but it's just a statement.

1Post2 · #**132** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 3:27 AM**

there will be an average development cost of ~$750,000 per unit for this building. if the developer reaches the full buildout of 1,000 units that the newspaper suggests, that's three quarters of a billion dollars right there, neither land nor office space included. (assuming similar costs in his future buildings.)

anyway, this guy sure is a benevolent car dealer. bit of a conflict of interest, eh?

PlanIt · #**133** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 4:26 AM**

Yeah, something tells me Dealin' Doug may not be the most honest guy in this business.

#**134** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 5:31 PM**

With all of the planned luxury condos and such with this development and some of the others, does anyone else think that these my knock out the Teatro Tower?

DenverInfill · #**135** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 5:56 PM**

I think we're reading way to much into a few vague statements. "Multi-billion dollar" could easily really mean just "about a billion" or "a little over a billion." And 1000 units could just be a ballpark estimate and it could end up being 1200 or whatever.

If they build six towers of 180 units, that's 1080 units, and if each cost $140 million, that'd be $840 million, plus add in the office building and you're approaching a billion. Who knows, maybe they have in mind a centerpiece building of 60 stories that alone would cost $400 million? Needless to say, it's a great development and we'll just have to see how it plays out.

litvil3 · #**136** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 6:05 PM**

Wow, congrats on the new announcement... makes me think about moving back home to Denver. I could walk to JR's from there!

pablosan · #**137** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 7:29 PM**

Quote:

With all of the planned luxury condos and such with this development and some of the others, does anyone else think that these my knock out the Teatro Tower?

No, I do not think that any of these projects will put the "Teatro Tower"/ The Residences at Four Seasons on the shelf. Although there have been so many different projects announced over the past year, only a handful of them have actually broken ground. As so many other forumers have said, the wait has been agonizing and if only a handful of the projects are built, it's better than nothing.

There appears to be a demographic shift, in which many wealthy emptynesters are choosing to move into these residential highrises. I think there is still demand for highrise living in Denver.
I believe the Tower on the Park, The Bueavallon, and the Portofino Tower are all close to almost being sold out.

I think The Residences at Four Seasons caters to an entirely different market. Most of the buyers will likely be from out of state, or corporations that will use the condos as executive housing/ corporate parties.

It is very odd that The Residences at Four Seasons hasn't done any marketing for over 8 months???

wong21fr · #**138** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 8:05 PM**

I'm sure that they are doing some marketing, just not the kind that is aimed at the lowley peons of the general populace. More along the lines of exclusive hands on. such as a couple of brokers using selling to their VIP lists with face to face meetings.

Agent Orange · #**139** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 8:27 PM**

I think the main thing that will dampen the chances of these larger projects getting built is the looming national housing slump. Doesn't it seem like every time Denver is about to get a cool new tower or two, a recession of some sort occurs that puts the project on the shelf? In the past, it was office proposals which were killed off by rising vacancy rates and the techno-bust. Now, we have a little downtown housing spree, but when 28% of home sale transactions in the nation involve investors, that's a very bad sign. Hopefully Denver will be more immune to this "bubble" because it's already slumping. Better yet, let's just hope that this project and Teatro break ground before the nat'l housing market stabilizes.

DenverInfill · #**140** Posted **Jul 24, 2005, 10:24 PM**

Well, the national housing market is just that... national. That doesn't mean that any local market is going to move the same way. Since Denver is a bit behind the curve in this high-rise housing trend, the fact that Las Vegas or Miami or other cities that have put up thousands and thousands of high-rise units in a relatively short period of time doesn't mean that suddenly the market for those kinds of units in Denver goes bust. It just means that it goes bust in those cities, while in Denver, it may just be getting started. Remember that real estate is really a local thing, all about location.