Quote:
Originally Posted by sailor734
I wonder why we are seeing virtually no polling in the NB election compared to years past? Is regional media that much more hollowed out/poorer that 4 years ago?
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Yes, plus the 2020 polls weren't great at all. Forum, Mainstreet, and Ekos all dropped polls just a day or two before the election, and they all pretty much did the same thing: underestimated the Liberals and PCs to varying degrees and overestimated the Greens. In 2018, which was an odd election anyway, Forum, Mainstreet, and Nanos did better, again underestimating Liberals and PCs, and mildly overestimating PA.
Good rule of thumb to me would be push down the third parties in polls, and add a couple points to the reds and blues... but I don't think uniform swing will matter too much, with the PA mostly dead and drifting to the center, Liberal enthusiasm up in Anglo seats from the 2020 nadir, Trudeau (unfairly) serving as an albatross around Holt's neck, and Greens simultaneously recruiting well but not really having a 'moment'.