DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Denver

Construction permits were just issued for 255 22nd St. in Uptown. Opus is the developer. It is 12 stories with 270 Units with retail fronting 20th st. Unfortunately the design appears to be significantly VE'ed from the original design proposed for the site.

Yeah. It went from NAVA's condo proposal to an apartment proposal by Opus so there's not a ton of surprise that they VE'ed the original glass curtain wall proposal. Would be nice if they went with some more brick and less EIFS for the lower-visibility sections.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

Sure, it's not a perfect wonderland - Paris is a little like New York in the 90s, most industrial cities in France and northwestern Europe are dirty and covered in graffiti (in fact, every European city is covered in graffiti), Northern Italy outside of Milan, southern Spain, and most of Portugal have a ton of rotting industrial... It's even more pronounced when you go east - even amazing places like Prague and Lviv have huge swaths of old Soviet bloc housing and factories that are slowly rotting in place.

BUT all these places are still re-investing in their infrastructure and pouring money into transit and pedestrian experiences. Paris keeps closing off more of the city to cars and improving bike and pedestrian infrastructure... And unlike NY in the 90s or now, the trains and subway stations have been maintained. Even the ones covered in graffiti or full of gabber-listening tweakers aren't as ramshackle as ones in NY that sit under billion-dollar properties. There are new high-speed train lines in Southern Spain and cities are adding bike lanes, despite endless cycles of strikes and economic hardship and being surrounded by abandoned towns and rapid desertification. And even the bleakest industrial towns continue to expand and improve their train systems. Hell, unless you're talking the small, way-off-the-beaten-path towns, every town over 10k people has at least semi-decent train service.

Once again, we're fighting tooth and nail over money for sidewalks while the "dilapidated" cities of Europe are investing in their cities. We are never going to build trains to Boulder, or Fort Collins, or Colorado Springs in the current fiscal climate and BRT down one arterial has taken forever and was a battle and I can guarantee the next one will be even harder to approve.

And I agree with Laniroj - the issue here is one of political will, and not the specifics of what one European city or Asian city or African city or American city is doing or not doing. We have so many opportunities and abilities here and we don't have the leadership in Denver to have anything figured out. 30+ year timelines or a high cost to certain individuals are failures of civic leadership and planning. Once upon a time this city built DIA despite a lot of pushback and ugly media coverage, but 30 years later figuring out the most basic infrastructure is nigh-impossible because no one in power is advocating for it effectively or fighting for workable solutions and therefore paying for it has become a nightmare of competing concerns.

If we want to plan for a bright future for Denver, we have to start comparing ourselves to places much better and not just saying "Not everywhere in Europe is better" or "We're doing so much better than Omaha, or Gary, or Mogadishu". We have to be able to convince people that future improvements are actually good, that quality of life improvements are worth small inconveniences, and that sometimes paying a little more in taxes can make the place better overall if it helps maintain the city. We should be looking at places that are much nicer and saying "we want that" and planning on how to build it. But we have local, state, and national civic leadership that struggles with paying for anything outside of public safety.

I'm not sure how this is an argument, except that the only thing the US leads the world in is telling the world we lead them in everything. I thought comparable infrastructure and public transit to Miami and Orlando was found when I went to Belize. Places like Spain, UK, and especially Japan look like they are in a different century than most of the US.

And yeah, obviously everywhere has its dilapidated places; but saying they aren't perfect and therefore we are just as good doesn't work.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Looked up where? That is even less than the proponents' assumed replacement cost that has been heavily criticized by Councilman Flynn and others.

At DOTI's average replacement cost, you'd pay $53,000 for that job. You'd probably pay $40-50k if they did it for you (which under current law, they could order without your permission).

Sounds like you agree with the proponents that sidewalks could be replaced better and cheaper. You just didn't know it.

Someone posted the instructions on Nextdoor (so it must be true) where I looked up my property to find the linear feet of sidewalk I had, then multiply that by the $3 and some cents.

[TakeFive]

Hats off to the sidewalk crowd



Ken said it well and it's fair to congratulate the group of passionate supporters who put forth tons of effort and energy to reach their sidewalk dream.

My Two Cents

A) There should have been a cap on corner lots so as not to punish those owners.

B) Equity Games

I would agree with Flynn to the extent that most of the 'favored' neighborhoods east of I-25 either are or will experience gentrification. Additionally it's not the residents that save the money it's the property owner and if the property owner is a landlord they don't need the break.

C) Senior Sensitivity

I would have preferred either a cap or break for seniors. I understand many would prefer seniors move out of Denver for affordability reasons but that does not reflect my value system.

Win for the Denver Denver Streets Partnership (and friends)

For me, sidewalks would be way down the list of priorities and I suspect this accomplishment will be more symbolic than impactful.

But a passionate group of people decided sidewalks were the 'be all, end all' and worked tirelessly to accomplish what they wanted. I did happen to say years ago that a 'dedicated revenue stream' was the way to go... and here we are. And bunt is correct that if it takes longer than nine years "So what?"

[mhays]

Congrats from Seattle, which badly needs a similar measure, particularly outside the mid-century city limits where many streets were built with rural standards. Heck, I might even give a first rounder back in a trade.

[TakeFive]

Of course it's political; everything is

Originally Posted by mojiferous

And I agree with Laniroj - the issue here is one of political will, and not the specifics of what one European city or Asian city or African city or American city is doing or not doing. We have so many opportunities and abilities here and we don't have the leadership in Denver to have anything figured out. 30+ year timelines or a high cost to certain individuals are failures of civic leadership and planning.

I'm not nearly as 'radical' as most but most Americans bristle when someone tries to compare America to European cities or even to NYC, Philadelphia, Chicago etc.

bunt (and others) has previously articulated the differences in density and geography between most of America and Europe or Big City life and most people are quite happy with their suburban lifestyles.

My Uber Story

It's interesting that about 80% of my residential pickups are at homes with two or even three cars. The reasons for using Uber/Lyft are endless. And for those who are carless rideshare is typically the preferred mode of travel. Better to pay for rideshare and have income than sit at home watching the Tee Vee. (But please be toes to the curb and not make me have to wait for your sorry slow ass)

Blame Gen Z and Millennials

They crave convenience and won't settle for less. Blame the rest of us who want convenience. Rideshare comes to their door and provides not only convenience but a safe and secure trip.

The Transit Conundrum

At best transit is useful for maybe 20% of people. Rideshare is useful for anybody with a credit or debit card.

Living in the City

As the Denver City Center continues to densify it's easy enough to envision more of an 'urban' environment. But when you speak of a "little inconvenience" I suspect you don't understand how important 'convenience and security' is to most people.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Congrats from Seattle, which badly needs a similar measure, particularly outside the mid-century city limits where many streets were built with rural standards. Heck, I might even give a first rounder back in a trade.

So I recently picked up a family (mom and two kids) from Seattle; actually I have picked others from the state but not necessarily the Seattle area. There destination was In-N-Out Burger. Not unusual as I picked up a guy from Miami the same week who made the same trip. With a big work area for handling both drive-thru and walk-in traffic I counted 15 employees scurrying around.

I was complementing them on Seattle voters stepping up to pay for such great transit. HS Senior kept saying it's taking too long, lol. So I googled; it looks like there's some construction quality issues as well as engineering challenges with the East Link. It doesn't seem that traumatic and that is a challenging line. It looks like lots of delays here and there but that seems to be the life of today's construction project challenges and not unique to Seattle.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

Congrats from Seattle, which badly needs a similar measure, particularly outside the mid-century city limits where many streets were built with rural standards. Heck, I might even give a first rounder back in a trade.

First rounder and Geno Smith and you have a deal!

[mhays]

Geno might be legit better than Russ, but it's also a better system and coaches, as well as each QB's familiarity with his system.

As for Link construction, a big QC fix is delaying things in one area, bad soils require redesign in another, and everything has pushed back due to Covid and supply issues. It's not earth-shattering but some openings will be back a year-plus.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by mhays

Geno might be legit better than Russ, but it's also a better system and coaches, as well as each QB's familiarity with his system.

As for Link construction, a big QC fix is delaying things in one area, bad soils require redesign in another, and everything has pushed back due to Covid and supply issues. It's not earth-shattering but some openings will be back a year-plus.

Wait- you mean a system and coaches that isn't a revolving carousel of personnel aids in player performance? God forbid.

[UrbanT]

A few updates:
- There are three dirt movers on Brighton Blvd where Steelhouse is to be built. It's hard to tell if they are getting ready to start that project or not because right next to it there's a bunch of road/sewer work happening?

- Found updated renderings of Drivetrain: https://hreventures.com/project/4003-walnut-street/

- AMLI golden triangle at 8th and Broadway was in full demolition mode.

- Renderings of the Edens project on Larimer that will be mostly replacing Volunteers of America - https://www.trybaarchitects.com/portfolio/five-points-larimer-and-lawrence

- Small infill project in Cap Hill @951 Logan - https://thestudioarchitecture.com/projects/951-logan/

[TakeFive]

Good Stuff - Nice Sleuthing

Originally Posted by UrbanT

A few updates:
- There are three dirt movers on Brighton Blvd where Steelhouse is to be built. It's hard to tell if they are getting ready to start that project or not because right next to it there's a bunch of road/sewer work happening?

- Found updated renderings of Drivetrain: https://hreventures.com/project/4003-walnut-street/

- AMLI golden triangle at 8th and Broadway was in full demolition mode.

- Renderings of the Edens project on Larimer that will be mostly replacing Volunteers of America - https://www.trybaarchitects.com/portfolio/five-points-larimer-and-lawrence

- Small infill project in Cap Hill @951 Logan - https://thestudioarchitecture.com/projects/951-logan/

I wasn't at all familiar with Halpern (which means nothing) but they have offices in NYC and Boulder, obviously NY-based.

Edens intentions are a favorite of mine; it does say the renderings are conceptional ideas but I look forward to watching these guys move forward.
--------------------------

Headlines and opinions are a dime a dozen but I thought this one relevant and encouraging.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/goldman-...pening-in-capital-markets-next-year.html

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Thursday that he expects capital markets to recover in the upcoming months.

“I think what we’re going through at the moment is a reset of valuation expectations,” he said in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. “In the coming months, we’ll see a little bit of a reopening in the capital markets when people get used to this valuation adjustment.”

Actually, this opinion is not specific to real estate but a projection of a better capital markets in general for next year which likely includes real estate.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Wait- you mean a system and coaches that isn't a revolving carousel of personnel aids in player performance? God forbid.

Don't forget hiring a head coach who's main qualification was that he could relate/coach and hopefully entice the signing of a science denying imbecile (no matter how good he may have once been on the field). Shocking that being able to relate to a moron may actually be a sign that you're a bit dim yourself. Everyone complaining about who we got from Seattle should be thankful we only got HALF of the original stupid plan fulfilled.

Still, if I was in charge there now I would institute a new rule of being required to sit down for lunch with Joe Sakic first for his advice before even thinking about any trade from now on. If he's not too busy planning on how he'll fleece the next NHL team on his list.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by mhays

Congrats from Seattle, which badly needs a similar measure, particularly outside the mid-century city limits where many streets were built with rural standards. Heck, I might even give a first rounder back in a trade.

You could have a near perfect city if you combined the strengths of Seattle with those of Denver. I went to interview in the area back in August and I felt a complete lack of homesickness there that was odd since I'd never been there for longer than a day before. The people are proud of their cities all up and down the sound and seem genuinely willing if not eager to pay for shared projects like cities in functioning societies do. Most people I met speak about how fortunate they are to be living in the setting they find themselves in too - I must have asked 20 people "how do you like living here" in Sea, Tac, and Ruston and got variations of love it with follow ups like above. That and the fact that the entire area seems to have been dropped right in the middle of a forest and I see what I grew up in in Rye combined with the city I spent my early adult years in Denver.

I am certain, lest anyone point out how many problems these places have, that when you live there you gripe about all the things that could be done better if YOU were in charge as I'm certain I will too when I live there. Just like people who love where they live ought to do.

Aside from the - I think - good natured ribbing of anyone who says Tacoma and Seattle are part of the same metropolis which I won't make the mistake of doing ever again.

You all are arguing about how to pay for sidewalks, voters in blue Orlando can't even be bothered to approve a sales tax for transportation here. Although Orlando has been making pretty great strides in cultural facilities here - mostly by soaking tourists in hotel rooms.

I remember when I was just starting residency here and an old COS rep named Tancredo called Miami a third world country (he was using it as a bigoted attack on immigration at the time) but..... no one got that it could have been a compliment and something for the state to aspire to.

[mhays]

EVERY city has a host of issues, and they tend to be pretty similar. That's one reason I like watching Denver and other cities for their problems, successes, solutions, etc.

Tacoma is semi-connected to Seattle. It's like if Colorado Springs was 20 miles closer. It's half its own place but also a bedroom area as its white-collar workforce often works in Seattle or Bellevue. Seaports, transit, land use planning, etc., include localized agencies but also regional ones. I attended a ULI event yesterday where speakers from the local chambers of commerce all made a point that we're the same metro and it's all about the whole.

Yes we're willing to pay for things here. Two middle-class suburban school districts just voted over 60% yes for $1.2b in capital projects bonds on Tuesday, which isn't unusual. Denver area voters seem to do similar things though.

[TakeFive]

I'd assume that moving from the right coast to the left coast is reason enough to celebrate.

The problem with Denver is they've forgotten out to procreate as they're closing schools instead of building them.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

I attended a ULI event yesterday where speakers from the local chambers of commerce all made a point that we're the same metro and it's all about the whole.

That sounds like liberal wishful thinking. Partly, I'd guess, Seattle area has more geographic limitations than Denver.

Lakewood voted for growth limitations because it didn't want to be like Denver. Some suggested Lakewood would become more unaffordable as a result but my guess is that hasn't happened.

When the pandemic re-awakened the animal spirits of wanting space and/or ownership is when the old Axiom of "drive till you qualify" took root again and young people people have the energy.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

That sounds like liberal wishful thinking. Partly, I'd guess, Seattle area has more geographic limitations than Denver.

Lakewood voted for growth limitations because it didn't want to be like Denver. Some suggested Lakewood would become more unaffordable as a result but my guess is that hasn't happened.

When the pandemic re-awakened the animal spirits of wanting space and/or ownership is when the old Axiom of "drive till you qualify" took root again and young people people have the energy.

Anecdotally, I do know of a person who voted for the growth limit, because corporate developers are evil, and then had to leave Lakewood due to rising housing costs. They now reside in a rental in Denver with roommates where their meager teacher's pension gets stretched more and more every year.

I love karma.

[mhays]

Based on a vaguely-realistic map of Lakewood I drew in CoStar, I get 4.6% apartment rent growth in 12 months vs. 3.5% for the metro.

But I wouldn't expect it to change much yet. Without knowing the details, it's only three years post-passage and between the lag before policy was in place, grandfathered projects, and lease-up periods we might only now be in the range where projects could have come on line but aren't.

PS, life is easier when cities are required to accept growth.

[TakeFive]

Ebb and Flow

Last night I picked up a couple from Cleveland and I brought up the Great Millennial migration to city centers after the Financial Crisis. Turns out their daughter moved to Denver for a period of time, lived in the city center. He mentioned how at one point they thought about renting an apartment in downtown Cleveland to be a part of the scene when the urge hit.

Then he brought up the Great Reversal following the Pandemic as people chased space in the suburbs.

By chance I also picked up a couple from Cincinnati last night and last weekend some gals from Columbus so I've got Ohio covered.
----------------------------

Affordability

So this morning I did a (very) quick check and found what I knew I would. The income per capita is significantly higher in Seattle than Denver and Denver's income per capita is significantly higher than Phoenix. That in a nutshell defines your affordability challenges.

You can write a fancy formula on a chalkboard or get off into the weeds about any number of things but the local economy is your primary driver.

And we're not going back to the 'good old days' when developer-builders created sprawl and periods of waaaay too much housing. Perhaps ongoing Stagflation will create adjustments as even the Tech Stars are cutting payroll. It's likely that city centers will continue to depend on the next group of young people while as people age/mature the desire for space will prevail. Nicer units will continue to appeal to those who are older and love the city center.

I'm always happy to add that Denver has done a credible job of adding 'designated' affordable housing to help with Seniors, with Veterans and even those with disabilities. But if Denver remains the attractive place it is then market rate affordability will continue to be a challenge. Same for Seattle - in spades.