DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[spr8364]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

IF this goes through, what's the likelihood that some other big chain would come to Denver? There are instances like in Mayfair where you have a Safeway across from a KS, and both are very busy. They'd shut one down and then you'd have one store that was constantly out of stock to overcrowded.

I remember back in the day in SoCal when there were probably 5 different grocery store chains.

I spent 11 weeks this past summer in Niiza, Saitama, Japan, and was amazed that I had walking access to about 6 different grocery store chains from where I was staying. I think I counted about a total of 12 grocery store chains that I could find in my various travels. They were all reasonably priced and varied in size from about a normal Colorado-sized grocery to mom-and-pop sized.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Does anybody still buy groceries

It does seem like younger people eat out a lot or do pickup.

Does Denver even have many Albertson's/Safeway stores?

Albertsons merger with Kroger could be announced this week
OCT 13 2022 - CNBC


Walmart is now the top grocer in the U.S. by revenue. Costco does substantial business.

Sam Hill will still have Trader Joe's which a lot people like. Whole Foods has its fans. I shop Sprouts Farmers Market on occasion. A few Natural Grocers scattered around. That's about it, I guess.

Safeway (Albertsons) and King Soopers (Kroger) are really the meat and potatoes options for every day goods - they're not competing with the others you listed which are all niche grocers (even target and costco are niche). If they merge, we really do need something like a Publix to enter the Colorado market to compete (won't happen). Once this merger completes, we'll have one grocery options and walmart, but it's always nice to have a third option. IMO, safeway is generally a step down from king soopers which is generally a step down from publix.

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by spr8364

I spent 11 weeks this past summer in Niiza, Saitama, Japan, and was amazed that I had walking access to about 6 different grocery store chains from where I was staying. I think I counted about a total of 12 grocery store chains that I could find in my various travels. They were all reasonably priced and varied in size from about a normal Colorado-sized grocery to mom-and-pop sized.

I was born and raised in Slovakia and my hometown of 40,000 people has a far greater variety of grocers than Denver. Tesco, Lidl + Kaufland (both owned by Schwartz Group), Billa, Fresh, Coop Jednota, Milk Agro, CBA - those are just the national chains. Then you have various smaller regional chains, small coops, mom and pops, and specialty grocers. This arguably applies to retail in general, there are half a dozen different electronics stores in the city as well.

It baffles me that a metro area with over 3 million people has two mainstream grocers.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by mishko27

I was born and raised in Slovakia and my hometown of 40,000 people has a far greater variety of grocers than Denver. Tesco, Lidl + Kaufland (both owned by Schwartz Group), Billa, Fresh, Coop Jednota, Milk Agro, CBA - those are just the national chains. Then you have various smaller regional chains, small coops, mom and pops, and specialty grocers. This arguably applies to retail in general, there are half a dozen different electronics stores in the city as well.

It baffles me that a metro area with over 3 million people has two mainstream grocers.

I know, but it's not much better in most cities. Where we lived in CA, they're down to Vons and Albertsons (both the same, owned by Albertsons), Ralphs (owned by Kroger), and then Stater Bros., which is a SoCal-specific chain.

I was recently in Kansas City and they have Price Chopper and HyVee, so only 2 chains. I don't think either of those are owned by Albertsons or Kroger.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

...As for my proposed solution - assuming this is the right approach, I would suggest that every property should pay a flat, reasonable fee. Say $80 per year - every apartment, condo, duplex, townhome, SFH included...

To be transparent, do you own a corner lot or somethin?!?! A flat fee is entirely too difficult to administer. The only way to achieve somethin resembling your structure is a sales tax. The conundrum is this- folks want sidewalks now but a passable sales tax can generally only improve them incrementally over time, unless it's a large sales tax with a short horizon...but then it is unlikely to pass...so we're back at square one. I think each property owner should be proud to take care of their own sidewalk to contribute to a beautiful and accessible city. Yes there is the money thing but most fixes are simple and not a big burden. There are maybe 10% of sidewalks which are egregiously expensive to replace due to decades of slumlords and slumowners not paying to keep up with their property (I hope that's not you)!

[TakeFive]

Very Interesting

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I was recently in Kansas City and they have Price Chopper and HyVee, so only 2 chains. I don't think either of those are owned by Albertsons or Kroger.

HyVee is an employee owned local grocer while Price Chopper is also a locally owned store.

My biggest concern with a Kroger-Albertson's marriage is their potential to 'monopolize' a significant portion of the grocery supply.

[TakeFive]

Color me Impressed

Not Denver related but Boise ID based Micron Technology just signed a lease in Longmont. H/T BusinessDen.

https://www.userwalls.news/n/broe-gr...orado-3950275/

DENVER, Oct. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Broe Real Estate Group (BREG), the wholly-owned subsidiary of the multi-billion-dollar private investment firm, The Broe Group, has signed Micron Technologies, Inc. as lead tenant for its 25-acre Longmont innovation campus known as MAX Technology Center. Micron Technology joins a list of industry giants leasing Colorado properties with Broe Real Estate Group in 2022, including Home Depot, Lineage Logistics, AON, and Charles Schwab.

I was unaware that Micron has had an R&D facility in Longmont since 2012.

While this pales in comparison to Micron's recent announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in a Megafab in Central New York, I didn't know that any tech hardware companies had a presence in Colorado. Just a guess that they like Longmont as a sister location to their HQ in Boise for R&D. This is a good thing.

[TakeFive]

What could possibly go wrong?

Real estate investment companies selling Phoenix metro homes for $100,000 less than what they paid
Oct. 18, 2022 By Gary Harper - AZFamily

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) - The Phoenix-metro area has led the nation in home price increases for nearly 3 years in a row.

In April when the real estate market started to shift downward, On Your Side learned that Open Door bought a North Phoenix home for $710,000 and immediately listed it for sale at $753,000 in an attempt to profit. In just five short months, the same company dropped the sales price 8 different times on that same home just to attract a buyer in the new real estate climate. The same home is currently listed for sale at $584,000. If it sells for that amount, Open Door will have lost $126,000. Sposato says he believes the home will probably sell for a lot less.

It works until it doesn't

Along with my often general criticism of Statistics, let's add or emphasize that historical data it not necessarily the best predictor of the future.

Fun segment on NPR today

which reviewed the Stagflation years under Paul Volcker who was Fed Chairman from 1979 to 1987 when interest rates went as high as 20%. No this is not a prediction of what is likely to happen this time but it is instructive. Also different city real estate markets can/will be different and different sub-markets within in cities will also vary.

[TakeFive]

What about rents?

The Widely Used Algorithm Helping Apartment Landlords Jack Up Rents
October 17, 2022 By Joseph Gordon, Bisnow San Francisco Bay Area

Relentlessly rising rental rates for apartment dwellers in much of the U.S. could be partially a result of the industry's reliance on a commonly used algorithm to help determine pricing, according to a report from ProPublica.

ProPublica found property management companies are increasingly reliant on RealPage's YieldStar software to calculate pricing for their apartments. ... Sources in the report suggested that machine-driven pricing pushes rents higher than they might otherwise be because of the removal of the human element from generating the number.

What does this mean for Denver rents?

A weaker home buying market presumably means more demand for apartments.

Is Denver building too many apartments?

It wouldn't seem so but migration and local economic conditions are always important. Additionally, while supply chain issues seem to be improving it is still taking longer and longer to complete (especially) downtown projects. Despite the number of units under construction, all the projects in RiNo are likely to crawl to the finish line over the next couple of years. It's hard to project how many new projects will break ground.

Who knows what goes with the overall economy; it's possible there's more pain coming than current conditions would predict. But rental algorithms can respond quicker to changing market conditions either up or down.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

It wouldn't seem so but migration and local economic conditions are always important. Additionally, while supply chain issues seem to be improving it is still taking longer and longer to complete (especially) downtown projects. Despite the number of units under construction, all the projects in RiNo are likely to crawl to the finish line over the next couple of years. It's hard to project how many new projects will break ground.

Where did you find the information that downtown projects are taking longer to complete relative to suburban projects? Curious about that data.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Where did you find the information that downtown projects are taking longer to complete relative to suburban projects? Curious about that data.

It's mostly anecdotal but laniroj could explain it much better than I can.

Basically, it's a lot easier to build 3/4-story projects than 10 to 20-story projects. It's a matter of logistics but call it common sense if you like.

EDIT: My intent was intended to compare downtown with suburban projects but since you asked.... My emphasis on downtown was due to all the construction that's downtown.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Color me Impressed

Not Denver related but Boise ID based Micron Technology just signed a lease in Longmont. H/T BusinessDen.

https://www.userwalls.news/n/broe-gr...orado-3950275/

I was unaware that Micron has had an R&D facility in Longmont since 2012.

While this pales in comparison to Micron's recent announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in a Megafab in Central New York, I didn't know that any tech hardware companies had a presence in Colorado. Just a guess that they like Longmont as a sister location to their HQ in Boise for R&D. This is a good thing.

Colorado Springs used to have what I believe to have been a fairly significant tech hardware manufacturing presence. If memory serves, many/most of those facilities were shuttered during the post dot-com bubble and 2008 recession, but some may still exist...

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

It's mostly anecdotal but laniroj could explain it much better than I can.

Basically, it's a lot easier to build 3/4-story projects than 10 to 20-story projects. It's a matter of logistics but call it common sense if you like.

EDIT: My intent was intended to compare downtown with suburban projects but since you asked.... My emphasis on downtown was due to all the construction that's downtown.

Well downtown is in Denver, so YES it does take longer there than suburbs! Those Denver projects are also of a different construction type than suburban projects (generally) which causes them to take longer. Case in point: a mid or high rise has to either frame concrete forms or erect steel with a pan for floors, which is generally much longer and labor intensive than pouring concrete on the ground or setting pre-manufactured floor trusses. Those bigguns also have lots more goodies in them which all add time and money.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

It's mostly anecdotal but laniroj could explain it much better than I can.

Basically, it's a lot easier to build 3/4-story projects than 10 to 20-story projects. It's a matter of logistics but call it common sense if you like.

EDIT: My intent was intended to compare downtown with suburban projects but since you asked.... My emphasis on downtown was due to all the construction that's downtown.

That’s true, but you’re implying that supply chain issues are causing downtown projects to take even longer compared to a suburban project, ergo suburban projects aren’t as affected by supply chain issues. That’s what I understood as your argument.

[TakeFive]

Excellent

Originally Posted by laniroj

Colorado Springs used to have what I believe to have been a fairly significant tech hardware manufacturing presence. If memory serves, many/most of those facilities were shuttered during the post dot-com bubble and 2008 recession, but some may still exist...

I haven't really followed the industry for many years so I've updated my 'education.' It turns out there is still some hardware in CO.

With respect to Co Springs

Microchip Technologies plans to double workforce at Colorado Springs plant
Aug 11, 2022 - KOAA News5

Senator Bennet toured facility following passage of the CHIPS Act

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado — Congress is investing in America's semiconductor industry encouraging companies to expand their domestic production capability. One of the companies that will benefit from the legislation is Microchip Technologies which employs around 500 people at its Colorado Springs plant.

Microchip produces roughly 50 to 60 semiconductors that are used routinely in the automotive industry

I recalled Intel once having a significant presence in C-Springs. But as manufacturing processes changed Colorado lost out to AZ due to more favorable tax policies.

It appears other tech companies in C-Springs are all software companies. They do manufacture some defense related products.

Fort Collins-Loveland was once a tech mecca

Hewlett-Packard at one time had a huge presence in Fort Collins and Loveland with over 9,000 employees. They still have a presence in Fort Collins but they do warranty work and resales as I've bought at least one computer from them.
----------------------------

Originally Posted by wong21fr

That’s true, but you’re implying that supply chain issues are causing downtown projects to take even longer compared to a suburban project, ergo suburban projects aren’t as affected by supply chain issues. That’s what I understood as your argument.

Quite logical, understandable.

[Fritzdude]

There has been discussions on “remodeling” Speer Boulevard and rerouting a part of Cherry Creek through downtown. It’s been noted that parallel thouroughfares along a below ground bike path/creek does not entice a walkable environment. And as the city grows with new additions in Auraria campus, Kroenke properties, and River Mile, some proposals are being put out there to remove one line of traffic along Speer and turn it into an extended promenade styled after European parks with trees, walking trails, plenty of tree canopy, and accessible access to the creek. Not sure how far this promenade would go (possibly to Cherry Creek itself), but it could become Denver’s version of a lengthy Central Park, where people can play, eat, and mingle outside of the growing city. People would complain about slower commute times along Speer, but I think it would be a great asset for the city in the long run. Thoughts?

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

There has been discussions on “remodeling” Speer Boulevard and rerouting a part of Cherry Creek through downtown. It’s been noted that parallel thouroughfares along a below ground bike path/creek does not entice a walkable environment. And as the city grows with new additions in Auraria campus, Kroenke properties, and River Mile, some proposals are being put out there to remove one line of traffic along Speer and turn it into an extended promenade styled after European parks with trees, walking trails, plenty of tree canopy, and accessible access to the creek. Not sure how far this promenade would go (possibly to Cherry Creek itself), but it could become Denver’s version of a lengthy Central Park, where people can play, eat, and mingle outside of the growing city. People would complain about slower commute times along Speer, but I think it would be a great asset for the city in the long run. Thoughts?

I agree it would be a great park amenity paralleling what is the city’s current preeminent urban spine.

Unless this comes along with a light rail expansion in-city (both Speer and W. Colfax are better corridors for light rail than any among those served by the current system), I don’t see how the transportation system (inc. roads) can handle that loss of total capacity.

And if that can’t be done, it isn’t as if Denver is hurting for massive amounts of parkspace, some of the best of which is in this corridor or near it.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Unless this comes along with a light rail expansion in-city (both Speer and W. Colfax are better corridors for light rail than any among those served by the current system), I don’t see how the transportation system (inc. roads) can handle that loss of total capacity.

Decades ago when 'they' first started envisioning light rail, they picked three primary routes. 1) along MLK Blvd 2) down So Broadway and 3) along West Colfax.

The blowback was severe. Minorites hated it along MLK Blvd, businesses hated it along So Broadway and everybody along West Colfax. Both major papers (at that time) wrote huge articles about how ridiculous the whole scheme was.

That's one BIG reason why they picked routes that would not be controversial.

More recently, Denver/RTD has found winning support along East Colfax for BRT to be excruciatingly difficult.

BTW, Nathaniel Minor has a celebratory piece about transit ridership in August. Probably too much wishful thinking but it's a fun read none-the-less.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

There has been discussions on “remodeling” Speer Boulevard and rerouting a part of Cherry Creek through downtown.

Kyle Harris wrote a niece piece in Denverite about this.

It sounds really cool but also fanciful.

[Fritzdude]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Kyle Harris wrote a niece piece in Denverite about this.

It sounds really cool but also fanciful.

Great cities do fanciful things! There is roughly 200' between the road and the creek on the north side to make a pretty amazing promenade. The south side of Speer would become the main thoroughfare, but perhaps add some extra lanes to handle traffic in both directions. Meanwhile, add an elevated rail on the south side of the creek that aligns with the southern retaining wall. And in order to avoid putting tracks in the ground and take up extra ROW, elevate it 10' above the ground along the creek bank and gradually climb to 20' in order to glide over intersections as it follows the Creek from Glendale to Denver - then detour it through the new 'River Mile' and crosses I25 to land somewhere near Federal/Colfax - hooking up with light rail near the stadium. Have you seen the elevated rail systems that are going in China these days? It would work great along the trail and provide quick and efficient mode of transportation that doesn't get bogged down with current traffic and street lights. Expensive... yeah.