YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Great news, I wonder if WOW has any interest? The two carriers usually mirror services.

That didnt work out too well for CLE.

Besides, WOW would need to leave its plane in YVR for 20 hours for optimal connections back in KEF (as they only have 1 connecting bank), and unlike FI, WW's fleet is all leased. So not an ideal way of utilizing an aircraft.

WW tried MIA that way and failed. Now they want to give MCO a try. Dont see how that will fare any better. They are starting DEL (with no Russian overflight rights, since they didnt want to pay the fees that go with it, at least according to the Russians), canceled TLV and are cutting CLE (apparently only seasonally, but nothing loaded for S19 yet)

Not a sign of healthy decisions. Which explains why they lost money in 2017, and their customer service is one of the worst in the industry, apparently.

But yes, they do have cheap seats. That's about it.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well that can't be true, they already serve LAX and SFO.

They fly the A320NEO and A321NEO both of which should easily have the legs. They also have A330s, 3 in service and 4 on order.

You're right, I'm mixing up they aren't a single-fleet LCC but I'm not sure NEOs range can sufficiently reach YVR on full weight. I think their A330s would be too much to enter into YVR but perhaps its entrance could be scaled accordingly, just as Icelandair has been doing.

[CloudInspector]

I might be in the minority, but I’d personally rather have Icelandair here and doing well than an LCC like Wow. Maybe in a few years if and when the market matures.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by CloudInspector

I might be in the minority, but I’d personally rather have Icelandair here and doing well than an LCC like Wow. Maybe in a few years if and when the market matures.

Sounds like Icelandair is doing well here. Unfortunately though if they are doing really well and another airline sees an opportunity.....

[zahav]

I emailed YVR on Friday abt the stats, and they said the person who posts them is away and they would check on Monday (today)

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/...affic-update-july-2018-website.pdf?la=en

Another stellar month across the board solid growth in all categories

Total up 7.4% up 180,000
Domestic up 7.1% 82,000
International up 7.6% up 98,000

Transborder up 3.8%
Asia Pacific up 7.3%
Europe up 13.7%
Misc Int’l up 37.5%

YTD hit 15,000,000 up 8.8% and up over 1.2 million

Excellent cargo stats too up 8.0% YTD up 10.8%

[nname]

August and September stats will be interesting though, with multiple Typhoons and Hurricanes impacting and resulting various flight cancellations. Even though this happens every year, but this year seems to have a much bigger and longer-lasting impacts, especially in Hawaii and Osaka.

AFAIK, 2 flights to/from TPE were canceled on early August, and a few more to/from HNL/OGG canceled later in the month.

In September at least a dozen flights to/from KIX were canceled, and the airport doesn't seem to be opening anytime soon. Hurricane Olivia will hit Hawaii later this week and that might result in more flight cancellations, and then there may be another Typhoon aiming for Taiwan later this month...

[Johnny Aussie]

Yes it definitely seems worse this year. Very scary storms.
Tragic in some areas.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/...affic-update-july-2018-website.pdf?la=en

Another stellar month across the board solid growth in all categories

Total up 7.4% up 180,000
Domestic up 7.1% 82,000
International up 7.6% up 98,000

Transborder up 3.8%
Asia Pacific up 7.3%
Europe up 13.7%
Misc Int’l up 37.5%

YTD hit 15,000,000 up 8.8% and up over 1.2 million

Excellent cargo stats too up 8.0% YTD up 10.8%

Sheesh!! Although no one can say, I can't help wondering what the total 2018 pax count will be at at YVR!

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Not sure about the range of their A321neo if it could make it? Westbound may be tough?

I would think it has the legs, even westbound in the winter.

YYZ-BER and YYZ-FRA are both decently longer and being run by the 737MAX which I believe has a lower theoretical max range than the 320/321NEO. Vancouver to Iceland seems to have more E/W than Toronto-Europe, but it's still majority N/S and is 500 miles shorter than YYZ-BER.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

That didnt work out too well for CLE.

Besides, WOW would need to leave its plane in YVR for 20 hours for optimal connections back in KEF (as they only have 1 connecting bank), and unlike FI, WW's fleet is all leased. So not an ideal way of utilizing an aircraft.

I think even you can agree the YVR market is not Cleveland...

I'm no expert regarding the WOW banks at REK, but AFAIK they have two banks already so they should be able to do the same turn Icelandair has just proposed.

Originally Posted by nname

August and September stats will be interesting though, with multiple Typhoons and Hurricanes impacting and resulting various flight cancellations. Even though this happens every year, but this year seems to have a much bigger and longer-lasting impacts, especially in Hawaii and Osaka.

AFAIK, 2 flights to/from TPE were canceled on early August, and a few more to/from HNL/OGG canceled later in the month.

In September at least a dozen flights to/from KIX were canceled, and the airport doesn't seem to be opening anytime soon. Hurricane Olivia will hit Hawaii later this week and that might result in more flight cancellations, and then there may be another Typhoon aiming for Taiwan later this month...

Bunch of smaller flights got cancelled because of the smoke in early August too. Could definitely all have an effect.

[Johnny Aussie]

Definitely these disastrous events will have an impact on numbers.

SE Australia early forecasts are for a bad fire season here too.

Looking at YYC compared to YVR growth in July.... YYC’s growth rate was much higher but it was entirely due to Domestic growth. In fact domestic at YYC > YVR again in July. YYC’s transborder growth was anemic and international actually was negative. YEG international also backpedalled significantly in July due to a low base anyway. YEG’s transborder increase also due to a very low base... chuck in an extra flight or two and looks like it’s skyrocketing.

Really emphasises YYC and YEG more domestic.

YVR’s non-transborder international growth was 11.2% In July. Well ahead of any other Canadian airport. Highest in growth % and aggregate of those reporting so far.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YYC’s growth rate was much higher but it was entirely due to Domestic growth.

Maybe that's in part due to the new domestic services WS added so people skip over YVR and do YQQ-YYC-YYZ or YCD-YYC-YYZ. That adds 2 to the domestic number, isn't it?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Maybe that's in part due to the new domestic services WS added so people skip over YVR and do YQQ-YYC-YYZ or YCD-YYC-YYZ. That adds 2 to the domestic number, isn't it?

That’s what I was alluding to.... YYC increasingly domestic oriented.

YVR’s domestic increase of 7.1% Impressive considering all these flights
overflying YVR.

[LeftCoaster]

Ya I was surprised at the impressive numbers in domestic, when I saw that I thought woah going to be a 10% growth month. Would have been close if not for the relatively low transborder numbrs.

Europe looks great though, soaking up most, if not all, of the extra capacity added by AC and others. As I calculate it YVR-Europe added about 12.8% more seats for peak summer 2018, so 13.7% is a fantastic result. Given that fares were generally pretty high all summer too, I'd imagine the yields were pretty decent as well.

Asia looked like a great result too. I only show a 4.8% increase in seat capacity between summer 2017 and summer 2018 so that must be a huge boost in loads if PAX were up 7.3%. Hope those loads are high because TPac fares are stupid low.

I wonder what happened to Transborder though, the increase in seats was in the 6-7% range as far as I can tell but only 3.8% growth, so there must have been some quiet planes.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I would think it has the legs, even westbound in the winter.

YYZ-BER and YYZ-FRA are both decently longer and being run by the 737MAX which I believe has a lower theoretical max range than the 320/321NEO. Vancouver to Iceland seems to have more E/W than Toronto-Europe, but it's still majority N/S and is 500 miles shorter than YYZ-BER.



I think even you can agree the YVR market is not Cleveland...

I'm no expert regarding the WOW banks at REK, but AFAIK they have two banks already so they should be able to do the same turn Icelandair has just proposed.

The A321neo definately has the legs for KEF-YVR, yes.

And you are correct, YVR isn't CLE, just illustrating that FI and WW launching the same route can backfire.

And yes, after some more in depth research, WOW does indeed have a second, although limited, departure bank to Europe. One that leaves KEF around noon. LAX and SFO connect onto this departure bank, and both cities are served with quick turnarounds. So seems as though a quick turnaround at YVR is possible, if they so wish. Which begs the question, why the long layover in MIA and MCO? They are both the same distance from KEF as YVR, hence my initial thought of a long layover.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

In September at least a dozen flights to/from KIX were canceled, and the airport doesn't seem to be opening anytime soon. Hurricane Olivia will hit Hawaii later this week and that might result in more flight cancellations, and then there may be another Typhoon aiming for Taiwan later this month...

KIX is open, but with limited number of flights out of T2 only. Also only one runway operational for now.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl...at-osakas-kansai-international-a-451776/

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

KIX is open, but with limited number of flights.

Well, I meant, opening for long-haul flights. Right now there's only domestic flights and a few narrow-body international flights to China, Taiwan, and Korea. It will certainly going to take some time before AC and run their Rouge 767 in/out of KIX again.

[Gordon]

Those are great pax numbers, if Aug thru Dec remain strong we could be between 25 & 26 million passengers.

It will be interesting to see if yve can get anything like this growth next year. Seeing that there have been no major route announcements confirmne for next year yet.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Europe looks great though, soaking up most, if not all, of the extra capacity added by AC and others. As I calculate it YVR-Europe added about 12.8% more seats for peak summer 2018, so 13.7% is a fantastic result. Given that fares were generally pretty high all summer too, I'd imagine the yields were pretty decent as well.

Asia looked like a great result too. I only show a 4.8% increase in seat capacity between summer 2017 and summer 2018 so that must be a huge boost in loads if PAX were up 7.3%. Hope those loads are high because TPac fares are stupid low.

I wonder what happened to Transborder though, the increase in seats was in the 6-7% range as far as I can tell but only 3.8% growth, so there must have been some quiet planes.

I’m sure YVR to Europe and Asia Pacific would be having increased load factors.
I’m pretty sure YVR also had the highest LF for transborder last year so even if capacity outstripped demand they should still be relatively high. Not sure about “quiet planes” but perhaps some routes maybe slipped from high 80s / low
90s to high 80s / mid-low 80s. It’s all relative isn’t it.

[nname]

Seems like YVR-NGO had been removed from AC's system in this week's schedule update.