Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
An interesting graphic found in the Canada section:
Alberta is making out like a bandit in terms of interprovincial migration figures from last year, but NS and NB are #2 and #3.
The trendlines established during the pandemic are continuing...........
It would be reasonable to assume that the majority of inflow to AB is from BC, SK, MB and, to some degree ON.
It would also be reasonable to assume most on the inflow to NB and NS is from ON, and to a much lesser extent, QC.
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Pretty much. BC and Ontario have the highest absolute migration to AB, but BC ismuch higher per capita, followed by the other prairie provinces. Atlantic Canada has the smallest numbers going to AB, but it does have higher per-capita migration there than Ontario does.
Still, New Brunswick had net positive inflows from five provinces (NL, PEI, ON, MB and BC) and Nova Scotia from seven (PEI, NB, PQ, ON, MB, SK, BC). If we look back at the past few Q4s we can maybe start to piece together trendlines: New Brunswick's Q4 2021 saw a net gain of about 1,500 people. That was 1,000 in Q4 2022, and only 300 in Q4 2023. Nova Scotia had a net gain of about 1,900 in Q4 2021, down to 1,000 in Q4 2022, and then a small drop to about 850 last quarter (after a flat/slightly negative quarter).
My guess is not that we're gradually reverting to the bad days of constant outmigration, but that the big influx is easing and we're probably moving into a gentler but still generally positive growth pattern, offset by the occasional negative quarter.
It will be especially interesting to see what happens to Alberta over the next couple of years, since that province is absolutely the heavy in the country. A lot of people moving there due to relatively higher wages and lower costs of living, but rents and real-estate prices, especially in Calgary, have really been spiralling due to the huge growth. I would also guess that in a couple of years we'll start to moderating growth there too, as the exuberance of this moment fades and the price advantage slips (unlike past Alberta population booms, this one is driven not so much by the local labour mareket as by the fact that it's more affordable--until the crush of newcomers shrinks that advantage.)