Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

The key bullet points from the PCs for the Nb election.

Whether it’s the HST cut, supervised injection sites, the carbon tax, or respecting the role of parents in education, Blaine Higgs and the PCNB have clear, common sense positions that are opposed by Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon.

Sounds like complete and utter BS lol

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Sounds like complete and utter BS lol

IDK.....red meat for some. Looks like Higgs' is doubling down on the shift to the right. One thing to remember, it's not about policies that appeal to people....it's about appealing to the people who show up and vote.

Speaking as someone who enjoys watching politics, it's going to be interesting.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

IDK.....red meat for some. Looks like Higgs' is doubling down on the shift to the right. One thing to remember, it's not about policies that appeal to people....it's about appealing to the people who show up and vote.

Speaking as someone who enjoys watching politics, it's going to be interesting.

In practicality this was micro targeted in a fundraising email. So yes, this is to motivate the flock to show up to vote. Not that adherents of the pc party required much motivation; it’s seen as their patriotic duty.

And on one file; remember last year the parental rights demonstration? One of the largest cross country peaceful demos in Canadian history.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

In practicality this was micro targeted in a fundraising email. So yes, this is to motivate the flock to show up to vote. Not that adherents of the pc party required much motivation; it’s seen as their patriotic duty.

And on one file; remember last year the parental rights demonstration? One of the largest cross country peaceful demos in Canadian history.

^ This

Some may end up surprised at the views (and numbers) of the silent majority vs those of the chattering class.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

^ This

Some may end up surprised at the views (and numbers) of the silent majority vs those of the chattering class.

CBC radio listeners vs everyone else.

The parental rights demos had two good outcomes. Brent Harris and Gail Costello both foot-gunned themselves on X. Which is probably why they both are not candidates this provincial election cycle.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

CBC radio listeners vs everyone else.

The parental rights demos had two good outcomes. Brent Harris and Gail Costello both foot-gunned themselves on X. Which is probably why they both are not candidates this provincial election cycle.

Then a few weeks later the people on the same side in the parental right protests were on opposite street corners in SJ protesting each other over Israel/Palestine.


While it’s nice to see Brent Harris “foot-gunned” I’m not sure anything actually “good” came out of those parental right demonstrations. It’s such a BS, dog whistle issue that Higgs used to rile up his base. There’s far more concerning issues regarding the education system than transgender rights. Just like there’s far more concerning issues facing the healthcare system than mandatory treatment for drug addicts or banning safe injection sites.

Blaine Higgs is the Divider in Chief and he is hurting the province by devoting so much of his time in office on these distracting social issues while largely ignoring much bigger issues like fixing the healthcare system, fixing the education system, and fixing the tax system for municipalities. Dude is just painfully full of crap.

Surprised to see so many on this forum seemingly support Higgs when he’s anti development compared to Holt and the Liberals. Susan Holt might not support everyone’s preferred policies regarding the drug problem in our cities, but she’s certainly far more in favour in spending what’s necessary to raise levels of human development in New Brunswick.

Life expectancy and educational attainment are two of the three main components of the human development index formula, which NB is nearly rock bottom in Canada. It’s abundantly clear that Susan Holt’s Liberals are more willing than Blaine Higgs’s PCs to invest what is needed to fix our healthcare system, improve our public education system, and make housing more affordable.


Canadians Provinces and US States according to the Human Development Index

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Seems like a pretty ringing endorsement from someone I’ve heard many people claim wants Susan Holt to lose, so he can run for premier himself next cycle.

I’d have to agree with my MP that this election is a distinct choice of two visions for this province.

I think it’s abundantly clear that Holt’s Liberals have the more positive vision for this future of this province, and have a far more pro development platform than the Higgs PCs.

[MonctonRad]

Just because he is giving her a "ringing endorsement" now, doesn't mean he also doesn't have a lackey sharpening knives in the back room at the same time.

This is how the game of politics is played.

[sailor734]

One interesting scenario is that it is far from impossible that the Liberals may win a majority (or at least the most seats) while Holt fails to get elected.

What if she comes third? (also not wildly improbable)

It's early days, a lot can change during the campaign and this is based on limited polling but.................

https://338canada.com/nb/fredericton.htm

Hopefully now that the campaign is underway we will get some polling data and some updated forecasts.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Then a few weeks later the people on the same side in the parental right protests were on opposite street corners in SJ protesting each other over Israel/Palestine.


While it’s nice to see Brent Harris “foot-gunned” I’m not sure anything actually “good” came out of those parental right demonstrations. It’s such a BS, dog whistle issue that Higgs used to rile up his base. There’s far more concerning issues regarding the education system than transgender rights. Just like there’s far more concerning issues facing the healthcare system than mandatory treatment for drug addicts or banning safe injection sites.

Blaine Higgs is the Divider in Chief and he is hurting the province by devoting so much of his time in office on these distracting social issues while largely ignoring much bigger issues like fixing the healthcare system, fixing the education system, and fixing the tax system for municipalities. Dude is just painfully full of crap.

Surprised to see so many on this forum seemingly support Higgs when he’s anti development compared to Holt and the Liberals. Susan Holt might not support everyone’s preferred policies regarding the drug problem in our cities, but she’s certainly far more in favour in spending what’s necessary to raise levels of human development in New Brunswick.

Life expectancy and educational attainment are two of the three main components of the human development index formula, which NB is nearly rock bottom in Canada. It’s abundantly clear that Susan Holt’s Liberals are more willing than Blaine Higgs’s PCs to invest what is needed to fix our healthcare system, improve our public education system, and make housing more affordable.


Canadians Provinces and US States according to the Human Development Index

I've been watching NB politics for many years and I can make one prediction with absolute confidence. Regardless of who wins in October 4 years from now NB's major problems will be lack of access to quality healthcare, poor economic performance and poor outcomes from a public education system struggling with issues around French immersion, inclusion and child poverty.

Cynicism or realism?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Just because he is giving her a "ringing endorsement" now, doesn't mean he also doesn't have a lackey sharpening knives in the back room at the same time.

This is how the game of politics is played.

Would you really want Wayne Long as our next, next premier? I'm not even sure I'd want him as the next mayor, despite him being a pretty effective MP.

What you said is very much possible, but it's also possibly that he may end up stumping for her and other Liberal candidates and help them win the election.

Wayne Long might be incredibly full of it, but he remains quite a popular figure in SJ and the bedroom communities (unlike Trudeau) and Long could help drum up support for the Liberals NB wide. He has some legit anti Trudeau cred, as he was the first MP to openly call for his resignation, and many New Brunswickers know this.

Higgs is very much trying to paint Holt's NB Liberals and Trudeau's federal Liberals as one in the same. Wayne Long could be an effective surrogate for Holt's Liberals to combat that narrative being pushed by Steve Outhouse and Blaine Higgs.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

One interesting scenario is that it is far from impossible that the Liberals may win a majority (or at least the most seats) while Holt fails to get elected.

What if she comes third? (also not wildly improbable)

It's early days, a lot can change during the campaign and this is based on limited polling but.................

https://338canada.com/nb/fredericton.htm

Hopefully now that the campaign is underway we will get some polling data and some updated forecasts.

She's in a legitimately three-way race but probably has an edge. Coming close to 40% would be surprising. Something like 34 Holt-32 PC-29 Green would not surprise me. Liberals losing two consecutive leaders in competitive seats would likely guarantee an Acadian riding provides the next (Acadian) Liberal leader.

I'd kill to see a good quality 1,000-person poll with regional breakdowns that make sense. No dice yet. 2020 had a lot of polling action even pre-writ.

I'm still not budging on my forecast of the PC ceiling being about 28 and their floor being about 22, Liberals maxing out at 26 with a low of 20, and the Greens holding the same three seats, perhaps losing or winning one net, if something weird happens.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I've been watching NB politics for many years and I can make one prediction with absolute confidence. Regardless of who wins in October 4 years from now NB's major problems will be lack of access to quality healthcare, poor economic performance and poor outcomes from a public education system struggling with issues around French immersion, inclusion and child poverty.

Cynicism or realism?

Both? Doesn't mean you can't be cautiously optimistic. Also, it doesn't mean one choice isn't abundantly worse on the problems you've listed.

Healthcare: Susan Holt is willing to invest more than Higgs will, and she's committed to enact comprehensive tax reform to pay for it.

Education: Much the same, Holt's Liberals are far more willing to invest what is needed to improve the public education system. I'd like to actually give Blaine Higgs some props for his plan to introduce a bilingual school system for Anglophones, except I can't, because while it was a good plan, he folded like a cheap tent and abandoned his proposed reforms, and doubled down on making transgenderism his key focus regarding the public education system.

Economy: This one should be easy. Holt should take a page out of Reagan's playbook and ask New Brunswickers "Do you feel better off now than you did six years ago?" For a lot of people in NB the answer to that question is a resounding no.

Higgs is so averse to spending that he risks the long term economic development of NB. There's quite a definitive difference between economic growth and economic development. I'd say both Higgs and Holt are both highly in favour of growth, but Holt's policies are better for sustained economic development.

One of the key economic issues in NB is surrounding taxation. The NB tax code hasn't went through any fundamental changes since the 1960s... and Higgs has demonstrated quite clearly these past six years that he is unwilling to make any fundamental changes to said tax code. (I wonder why )

Holt has at least promised to enact fundamental, comprehensive tax reform, which remains one of the key unresolved economic issues that has been holding NB for more than half a century. If Holt and the Liberals stick to a message focussed on key issues that NBers care about, and not get bogged down by the divisive issues Higgs would like to make the election about, I think she stands a very good chance at becoming the first female premier in the history of NB.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

She's in a legitimately three-way race but probably has an edge. Coming close to 40% would be surprising. Something like 34 Holt-32 PC-29 Green would not surprise me. Liberals losing two consecutive leaders in competitive seats would likely guarantee an Acadian riding provides the next (Acadian) Liberal leader.

I'd kill to see a good quality 1,000-person poll with regional breakdowns that make sense. No dice yet. 2020 had a lot of polling action even pre-writ.

I'm still not budging on my forecast of the PC ceiling being about 28 and their floor being about 22, Liberals maxing out at 26 with a low of 20, and the Greens holding the same three seats, perhaps losing or winning one net, if something weird happens.

The issue with 338 is it overestimates the panb results. It has PANB at 15% in grand lake for example, not taking into account the altered landscape. Can the panb be a spoiler in any ridings? Probably not.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

She's in a legitimately three-way race but probably has an edge. Coming close to 40% would be surprising. Something like 34 Holt-32 PC-29 Green would not surprise me. Liberals losing two consecutive leaders in competitive seats would likely guarantee an Acadian riding provides the next (Acadian) Liberal leader.

I'd kill to see a good quality 1,000-person poll with regional breakdowns that make sense. No dice yet. 2020 had a lot of polling action even pre-writ.

I'm still not budging on my forecast of the PC ceiling being about 28 and their floor being about 22, Liberals maxing out at 26 with a low of 20, and the Greens holding the same three seats, perhaps losing or winning one net, if something weird happens.

It's ridiculous that the Liberals and Greens couldn't have at least come to an understanding to not run candidates against Holt and Coon in those two Fredericton ridings.

What I find even more mind blowing is that there's never been a premier that has represented Fredericton as an MLA.

I find it hard to believe voters in Fredericton wouldn't see the benefit in their MLA becoming the next premier of the province, as it seems self evident. I imagine she will pick up quite a few would be PC voters in her riding who aren't a big fans of Higgs and understand the benefit of their MLA being the next premier.

I think people are reading far too into 338canada.com projections, which just aren't based on enough reliable data. It's a noble effort, and mostly a good thing that the website exists, but it's not anywhere close to as accurate as FiveThirtyEight or Nate Silver's new site is. In some respects they're almost doing a disservice to the electorate by publishing these projection without enough reliable data to back them up, except for the fact that most voters aren't informed and don't even know this site exists.

[TitleRequired]

Surprising candor from NS.

Kent Smith wrote to federal Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier on Wednesday after receiving no response to a previous letter last month that raised concerns about illegal lobster fishing in the Clare region and public safety concerns tied to that activity. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/lobster-fishing-kent-smith-diane-lebouthillier-1.7327309

Multiple incidents in Southern NS; including multiple arsons and shootings. But not related according to the rcmp?

How did things get so worst that fisheries officers can invoke the right of refusal to work? You know the guys and gals with bulletproof vests and side arms.

And protests in Saint Andrews.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Just because he is giving her a "ringing endorsement" now, doesn't mean he also doesn't have a lackey sharpening knives in the back room at the same time.

This is how the game of politics is played.

How's Wayne's French? Good enough to lead the Acadian party?

[TitleRequired]

A tough part of sales is lead generation. Getting a list of people that might align with your product in order to sell them that product is HARD.

A classic political means to do so is a petition. An example:

https://www.newbrunswickpc.ca/trudeausplan

Is a masterclass in lead generation. Please provide your name, address and phone number and I'll be sure to kick Trudeau in the shins for you. And in the same breath, paint Holt and Trudeau as almost being in a relationship (well, Justin does like blondes....)

Brilliant.

[adamuptownsj]

Mainstreet (558 people polled) has Libs up 41-39 over the PCs, Greens at 13, Alliance at 4 (lol). NDP lumped in with other at 3. They did OK in 2020 but not great. They did excellently in 2018.

Firmly in tossup territory.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Mainstreet (558 people polled) has Libs up 41-39 over the PCs, Greens at 13, Alliance at 4 (lol). NDP lumped in with other at 3. They did OK in 2020 but not great. They did excellently in 2018.

Firmly in tossup territory.

Agreed.

That's closer then 338 has it. If anything the PC have a higher vote efficiency; .65 seat/percent for pc; .55 seat/% for libs and .18 seat/% for greens based on 338 projections.

Translates to 25.35 for PC; 22.55 for libs and 2.32 for greens. If the polling numbers are close or equal; the PCs probably would win.

Pretty close to your thoughts expressed earlier on possible outcomes.