The 401

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

And even if it was - why on earth would it be a better idea to spend $40 billion to get nothing, than to spend $10 billion on a new highway?

Do you mean $40B to buy the 407?

I don't think it would get nothing. It would allow the province to dynamically adjust tolls in response to traffic on the 401, to optimize flows on each highway. The kicker is government being responsible for expansion and maintenance/rehab, but that may be worthwhile. This is something the Harris government didn't seem to understand, or at least care about, when it sold the highway for relative peanuts to adjust its balance sheet. I imagine there were planners and analysts within MTO and the forerunner to the Ministry of Infrastructure who laid out the options and their associated costs, traffic, revenue and benefit projections, but whether Harris et al was interested in listening who knows.

I'm not a fan of the 413, but if tolled maybe it could serve a similar purpose (especially if the 407 was provincially-controlled, and 413 extended eastward at some point to become a true "outer ring road").

I think these options need to be examined in combination, not isolation, to understand the overall benefits vs. costs over the long-term. I doubt Ford wants anything to do with that kind of in-depth analysis, nor consider pricing for 413 (or the 401 for that matter... the express lanes could easily become a priced alternative to the collectors)

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

the 401 tunnel is not out of nowhere. It's been rumoured for years and has been identified as a "capacity expansion" in government documents for several years now.

And I think it needs thorough analysis before anyone should be touting it as a "can-do"... it may very well make sense economically and financially, but it needs to be modelled and properly assessed.

[MolsonExport]

I still don't get how all that extra capacity that a tunnel would bring could be offloaded onto the intersecting streets, roads and other highways. You are just creating different bottlenecks.

I don't understand the logic of putting all your eggs into one basket. The 401 is already a major choke point, and Toronto would be even more vulnerable with another highway running underneath it (bomb threats, gas leak).

remember this?

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

407 and 413 are different projects serving different corridors. The ownership of the 407 doesn't have any effect on the need for the 413.

And even if it was - why on earth would it be a better idea to spend $40 billion to get nothing, than to spend $10 billion on a new highway?

I have not heard (nor have I been looking) for what it would cost to buy the 407 or to build the 413. And I don't know if the owners of the 407 have even publicly floated a realistic number they would sell the highway for.

[ScreamingViking]

And by "buy" the 407 we're talking about buying out the remainder of the 99-year lease established in 1999. The province still owns the highway corridor.

[jammer139]

Good point to remind folks that the province still owns the 407. What they "sold" was a 99 year lease to take on the operation, maintenance and future expansion of the 407 in exchange for allowing the lease holder to collect the tolls and revenues.

The province has not paid for any of the new lanes or bridge remediation construction since the lease was signed. When the lease term ends the 407 reverts back under MTO operational control.

[Djeffery]

Honestly that just sounds like splitting hairs at this point. There are still 70+ years left on the lease. It isn't a case of just sitting back and waiting for the lease to expire. Unlike buying out a contract to sell beer a year early, I think there would be actual public support for the province trying to get control of the 407 back.

[1overcosc]

The last time any shares in the 407 were bought and sold was in 2019 when SNC Lavalin sold 10% of the highway for $3.25 billion. So the market value of the highway in 2019 was $32.5 billion.

There has been considerable asset inflation since 2019. $40 billion is a very likely cost.

Not to mention the province would be assuming life cycle cost, right when the highway is starting to approach the age where this cost starts to increase.

$40 billion is much, much, better spent on other infrastructure improvements. Making the 407 free doesn't magically negate the need for additional highway capacity in the GTA.

[harls]

They could cut the toll cost in half on the 407 and still be profitable, but 'number must go up'.

This is what happens when you give private business a monopoly over a key piece of public infrastructure.

[1overcosc]

It probably did save the province quite a bit of money in the end, though. Aside from paying off the debt took out to build it, the private operator completed several expansions and widenings and has paid for all maintenance. In the coming decades they'll pay for replacing all those bridges as they hit the end of their life.

The province could have thereotically done the same thing for a lower roll rate by keeping it public and charging a toll rate to cover all those exact costs and no more, but in practice the province probably would have taken the tolls off for political reasons.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by harls

They could cut the toll cost in half on the 407 and still be profitable, but 'number must go up'.

This is what happens when you give private business a monopoly over a key piece of public infrastructure.

yep. This, in spades.

And why was it deemed necessary for DoFo to buy out the contract to sell beer a year earlier? Why is this a priority?

The party of beer and hotdogs. And old white folk

[Gresto]

Ah, good old Barney Rubble and his doofus countenance makes yet another appearance. Harris is to blame for the 407 debacle. Not much can be done about it now, unless government lawyers can find a loophole.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Not much can be done about it now, unless government lawyers can find a loophole.

I think the corporate owners can afford a far more (and perhaps better, or at least more focused) legal team.

The only positive today -- aside from having an alternative to the 401 through Toronto (albeit an expensive one) that has been expanded and well maintained -- is that the Canada Pension Plan owns slightly more than half of the 407ETR concession company. Though more than 43% is still in the hands of Spanish ownership.

[MolsonExport]

Drove to the GTA this holiday weekend. Awful traffic. About half of the 401 between London and Mississauga is under construction. Always, always, always, and always under construction. Especially in KWC. It never is finished. Never.

[Innsertnamehere]

I mean I know you love to rag on the 401, but how much is really under construction right now?

There is the long ongoing (and almost done!) Grand River bridge replacement, some resurfacing near Guelph and Ingersoll, and a new bridge getting built in Milton.. and that should be about it between London and Guelph.

London to Mississauga is such a long stretch there will likely never be no construction on that stretch, but starting next year there are no scheduled major works other than routine resurfacing projects for at least the next 4 years. And even then there is only resurfacing scheduled for next summer.

[MolsonExport]

There is definitely some work on the 401 going on in London (between Wellington and Veteran's Memorial).

My 2 hour drive turned into 3.5 hours. And this was not during rush hour or anything like that. Anyways, not very pleasant. I am just wondering how there could be so much (re) construction on the same stretches of highway, year after year, after year.

There is not much choice. It is 401 or the paltry schedule and relatively expensive fares of VIA.

[jammer139]

There are numerous projects in the London area.

Pond Mills Rd overpass to Highbury overpass

http://www.hwy401highbury.ca/

Dorchester Rd overpass

https://www.thamescentre.on.ca/artic...e-improvements

Colonel Talbot and Glanworth Dr interchanges

[Djeffery]

Roseville Rd overpass was just demolished between Homer Watson and Cedar Creek as well. That will likely be a 2 lane each way bottleneck until next summer now. I also have no doubt that once everything is done through highway 8 that they will then decide to build that flyover to connect to 8 from the eastbound 401, so there goes another couple years. And then it will be time to start widening the 401 west of 25 and all the new bridges that will entail.

The London work currently underway probably has 2 more construction seasons at least. Pond Mills and CNR overpasses still have another section on the eastbound side after the middle piece being worked on now finishes. Not sure how they are dealing with Highbury overpass replacement. They have a small piece of centre support built on the west side of the current structure, and they are starting to work on the end supports, but that will only handle a couple lanes on it, so I imagine this will also be a multiyear process of replacing the overpass in 3 sections.

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

There is definitely some work on the 401 going on in London (between Wellington and Veteran's Memorial).

My 2 hour drive turned into 3.5 hours. And this was not during rush hour or anything like that. Anyways, not very pleasant. I am just wondering how there could be so much (re) construction on the same stretches of highway, year after year, after year.

There is not much choice. It is 401 or the paltry schedule and relatively expensive fares of VIA.

We're in year 2 of 5 for construction work around the Highbury avenue interchange. I'm still cheezed that after all this time and effort, traffic lights will remain on the freeway stretch of Highbury. This was the time to make it right, even if it meant making the 5 year project take 6 or more years.

401 gets beat up a lot more than your typical freeway due to the high % of heavy trucks using it. That means the road wears a lot faster, so more upkeep/construction is needed. Some parts are also approaching the end of their design life (1950s/60s over/underpasses) and thus there is more construction activity now to replace them. Obviously traffic volumes are also growing, so that means widening projects add further, lengthy construction times.

We've beat the dead horse many times about this. 401 is a single point of failure. Another freeway running north of London and K/W towards Toronto would distribute the use and give you an alternate when there's a lot of construction. So would more trains and transit choices... but here we are in 2024 with just the 401 still.

[sonysnob]

Looking westerly through Scarborough on the 401 from the Brimley Road overpass:


http://www.asphaltplanet.ca/ON/hwy_4...ct24_42x28.jpg