DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Listen guys, I was never advocating for yuppies to put dildo stores out of business. Simply suggesting it might be a consequence of late night party hotels being demolished in favor of lux apartments.

Yuppies need dildos too, perhaps a yoga studio that sells sustainably sourced dildos that are custom fitted? Old Colfax and new Colfax in a harmonious melding.

I did notice the sheer number of motels that have shuttered along Colfax recently- that’s several hundred of the cheapest and accessible housing units in Denver that are gone without a readily available replacement. Wonder where those folks ended up?

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

https://kdvr.com/news/local/denver-n...ction-workers/

Do projects like Amacon and 1900 Lawrence have their workers lined up already or is this an issue preventing them from going from 99% construction ready to 100% construction ready?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

Do you suppose that’s even possible? I suspect there’s not enough labor.

Doubtful, but industries change quickly and with wages where they're at now, I do think the building trades are attracting more and more folks albeit very slowly. As I said before, I subscribe to the governance of hopes and feels!

[Sam Hill]

So we’re all in favor of dildos then. Good. Lol

On a different note, I have a couple friends who are electricians that work in construction (one of them worked on that huge Gaylord hotel). From what I’ve gleaned through conversation, they each make about $90k-ish - and with current job market trends, that’s sure to increase. I don’t know why the trades aren’t more popular. Someone needs to get the word out.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

https://kdvr.com/news/local/denver-n...ction-workers/

Do projects like Amacon and 1900 Lawrence have their workers lined up already or is this an issue preventing them from going from 99% construction ready to 100% construction ready?

I'll make a guess based on typical scenarios.

They have contractors. The contractors are trying to staff the salaried positions properly, but they're struggling (other projects have run a little long, they lost a few people, other work is starting too...). The same goes for the self-performed labor and foreman positions but they expect to figure those out before key scopes begin.

Most subs are selected at this point (80% of the hourly labor), but they have similar issues. These are big jobs and will be a challenge.

Maybe the project timing is based on when at least the core team is available, per the contractor. But more commonly the timing is based on developer needs and the million details they need to figure out, like final go-aheads from financial partners. The construction team won't mind because a little delay will make their lives easier...

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Denver needs up to 40,000 construction workers

Maybe some of the recent Central American immigrants will find their way up to Denver. I did pick up one rider recently who told me: "no comprende"; it was a '3rd party' paid trip.

Originally Posted by mhays

Maybe the project timing is based on when at least the core team is available, per the contractor. But more commonly the timing is based on developer needs and the million details they need to figure out, like final go-aheads from financial partners. The construction team won't mind because a little delay will make their lives easier...

I have been wondering if the volatile markets is having any rippling affects for construction - including the ongoing supply chain issues.

I see where home mortgage rates have gone from ~3% to closer to 5% in a short period of time.

My 'exercise' on the previous page did show - in spades - just how much the multifamily construction is focused in the city center.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

So we’re all in favor of dildos then. Good. Lol

On a different note, I have a couple friends who are electricians that work in construction (one of them worked on that huge Gaylord hotel). From what I’ve gleaned through conversation, they each make about $90k-ish - and with current job market trends, that’s sure to increase. I don’t know why the trades aren’t more popular. Someone needs to get the word out.

Because all the youngins were sold the college field of dreams and are working $55k jobs remotely - they don't want to come home with blisters and they'd addicted to those unused gym memberships. AMIRIGHT?

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by laniroj

working $55k jobs remotely

Lol good luck living in Denver on that salary.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Because all the youngins were sold the college field of dreams and are working $55k jobs remotely - they don't want to come home with blisters and they'd addicted to those unused gym memberships. AMIRIGHT?

It's a question of career longevity. One doesn't spend 20 years working in the field without destroying your body. You've got to pivot at year ten or so and either get into management or startup your own business.

There's also the facet that there's a sizable portion of the population that's too fat and dumb to get into the skilled trades. It's similar to why the military keeps on expanding it's target market of recruits- the goods keep on getting worse and finding that quality piece that much harder.

[TakeFive]

Fed’s Brainard sees balance sheet reduction soon and ‘at a rapid pace"
TUE, APR 5 - CNBC

This will be more impactful in slowing the economy (towards recession) than raising their 'overnight' interest rates. OTOH, it may only help to counter-balance all the infrastructure money pouring into the economy.

[TakeFive]

I have a brand new key and owner
If you clicked on this tell me it didn't make you smile.

The Broadway
950 Broadway


Photo courtesy of Non Plus Ultra

Non Plus Ultra Adds to its Growing Denver Portfolio
April 5, 2022 - Mile High CRE

I had no idea what was going on with this new venture.

Following the news late last year that Non Plus Ultra — a company that activates dark properties as event spaces — was taking over four iconic Denver properties: the Denver Sports Castle, Denver Rock Drill, and the former Denver Post Printing Plant, the company has added two new venues to its growing Denver portfolio: The Broadway and Lake View Room.

Sounds pretty risky to me; what say you?

“We are beyond delighted by the early success we have had in developing important partnerships with many of Denver’s business, cultural and philanthropic stakeholders,” said Non Plus Ultra CEO Jordan Langer. “This is just a start as we strive to become an important, longstanding member of the Denver community, dedicated to contributing in meaningful ways to the city’s economic prosperity and cultural vibrancy.”

And The Broadway? Golden Triangle residents want to know.

Located at 950 Broadway, The Broadway offers 12,000 square feet of open, airy space. Sharply contemporary, The Broadway’s soothing neutral tones are punctuated by eclectic ceiling and lighting elements. Operable garage doors open to a western-facing patio offering a sense of frank utilitarianism. The former gourmet food hall can host up to 450 people and includes several functional commercial kitchens and bars.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

It's a question of career longevity. One doesn't spend 20 years working in the field without destroying your body. You've got to pivot at year ten or so and either get into management or startup your own business.

There's also the facet that there's a sizable portion of the population that's too fat and dumb to get into the skilled trades. It's similar to why the military keeps on expanding it's target market of recruits- the goods keep on getting worse and finding that quality piece that much harder.

My grandfather worked in the field until he was literally 95 years old. Definitely slowed down. But unless you're dumb with your body you can make a career at least in electrical work last. You may have to choose different work. But as long as you're not TOO fat or TOO dumb I don't see trade work as the same as being an NFL running back in terms of career length potential.

Though in this country if you're smart enough to turn the breakers off before working you're probably going to naturally rise to management or owning your own business anyway soooo

[COtoOC]

I drove down Colfax yesterday and Smiley's is gone, plus most of the Ramada.

I rented a room in a house on Downing near that intersection back in '94 and it was pretty sketchy back then, although I did my laundry there. I'm interested to see how this redevelopment turns out.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

My grandfather worked in the field until he was literally 95 years old. Definitely slowed down. But unless you're dumb with your body you can make a career at least in electrical work last. You may have to choose different work. But as long as you're not TOO fat or TOO dumb I don't see trade work as the same as being an NFL running back in terms of career length potential.

Though in this country if you're smart enough to turn the breakers off before working you're probably going to naturally rise to management or owning your own business anyway soooo

You only turn the breakers off after you've pulled hot wire and experienced the jolt that comes from trying to save a couple minutes of time!! To me, in America in 2022, going to college for business and then getting into an apprenticeship program to learn a trade and eventually own/run a business represents the most significant financial opportunity in terms of career prospects for young people. Folks forget, some of these small business owners (the smart ones who are business savvy) are making pretty incredible amounts of money into the 7 seven figure range.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I drove down Colfax yesterday and Smiley's is gone, plus most of the Ramada.

I rented a room in a house on Downing near that intersection back in '94 and it was pretty sketchy back then, although I did my laundry there. I'm interested to see how this redevelopment turns out.

I definitely took all of my laundry and bedding there to wash out the bedbugs once in my early 20s. Not proud of that. Hopefully the demolition took care of those little bastards.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

But unless you're dumb with your body you can make a career at least in electrical work last.

I think you just identified the issue- most twenty somethings are pretty dumb with their bodies and end up paying for it later in life.

Mad props to your grandfather for being able to go like that until 95- that's impressive.

[TakeFive]

The Thrill is Gone

More people moving out of Colorado than moving in
Apr 6, 2022 by DJ Summers/KDVR

DENVER (KDVR) — More data is coming in that suggests Colorado’s decade long population eruption has ended.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Colorado State Demography Office don’t have 2021 migration data yet, but independent researchers found more people moving out of Colorado than in over the year. Census data deepens a picture of people moving out of Denver and some of its surrounding counties and into adjacent ones.

----------------------

I missed this one from over a month ago.

Notable Downtown Denver Office Tower Headed For Foreclosure
March 1, 2022 By Molly Armbrister, Bisnow Denver

One of downtown Denver's most recognizable office towers is heading for foreclosure.

A commercial loan on the Denver Energy Center has been delinquent since June 2021, causing the lender, JP Morgan Chase Bank, to move forward with foreclosure, according to a servicing report from commercial finance research firm Trepp.

The borrower on the loan, Los Angeles-based Gemini Rosemont...The investor paid $176M in 2013 for the two buildings, which total 785K SF. At the time, the property was known as the Denver World Trade Center because of that organization’s tenancy in the building.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The Thrill is Gone

Good, we could use a few years to catch up.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Good, we could use a few years to catch up.

I doubt it, because job growth still continues and where there is job growth there is population growth. But man, I’d love to think we’d get a few years to catch up.

I’ve learned a lot about real estate lately, and I constantly find myself hoping I’m wrong about everything I think I’ve learned about real estate. Sometimes I even catch myself rooting for a recession. Then I have to (figuratively) slap myself in the face. “Why would you hope for something like that!”

I used to root for Denver to grow. Much of this stemmed from the time I spent living in California, always defending my home town. “No really! It’s not a backwards redneck place in one of those rectangular states! It’s bigger and more progressive than you think!”

Now I’d absolutely love it if the growth just… stopped. Bigger is not better.

[DenverInfill]

I wouldn't put too much stock in these population estimates. Not only is the accuracy of the 2020 Census itself in question given that it took place during the darkest days of COVID but the annual estimates since then are still influenced by a lot of disruption and uncertainty. I think it'll be better to wait for 2023 or 2024 estimates before coming to any conclusions about which areas are growing or not. Also, keep in mind that every year when they release the newest intracensal estimates, they re-estimate all of the previous years' estimates back to the start of the decade. It'll be interesting to see how the July 2020, 2021 and 2022 estimates change over the remaining years of this decade.