CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

The same source as all those papers. The census revised the population estimate of 2016 from 2.705Million to 2.720Million. The 2017 population is now 2.716M. 2010 population was 2.695. Of course none of the papers talked about this. It doesn't fit the narrative.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...w.xhtml?src=CF

You know, I saw this and I was thinking "didn't they already release these numbers?" The media is so bad it's not even funny. I read the Tribune article and they never mentioned these are revised numbers. They could have easily said they are revised numbers and while they predicted that Chicago lost population, they revised to show that they don't think it lost nearly as much as originally thought.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

You know, I saw this and I was thinking "didn't they already release these numbers?" The media is so bad it's not even funny. I read the Tribune article and they never mentioned these are revised numbers. They could have easily said they are revised numbers and while they predicted that Chicago lost population, they revised to show that they don't think it lost nearly as much as originally thought.

I'm not surprised anymore at how bad the media is. The estimates now show the city has lost 10K people over the last three years, but it gained 31K from 2010-2014. And the decline was lower than last year.

[the urban politician]

If Chicago had the same percentage of F1000 companies based in the city as NYC, it would have 42

If we had the same percentage as Houston, we would have 61 companies based in the city.

[the urban politician]

I'm most annoyed with Greg Hinz at Crains. He should know better.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I'm most annoyed with Greg Hinz at Crains. He should know better.

Lol...he doesn't..Trust me.

[sentinel]

Perhaps someone should contact Greg Hinz and let him know about his error(s) in reporting: [email protected]

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/apps/...nalia?ID=ghinz

For what it's worth, he's one of the worst reporters covering local, Chicago-based news.

[Vlajos]

^ I think marothisu does that often.

Look, best April for home sales in 11 years.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/reale...il-in-10-years

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

^ I think marothisu does that often.

Look, best April for home sales in 11 years.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/reale...il-in-10-years

My dealings are more about data, but he also isn't one to listen very easily...so good luck

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Look, best April for home sales in 11 years.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/reale...il-in-10-years

we just sold our old condo in april, and according to our realtor we set a new high-water mark for 2 bed/1 baths in our sub-neighborhood in north edgewater. when we discussed list price, he told us to aim high because "edgewater is hot right now", and sure enough, our final sale price was higher than any recent comp he could find. admittedly, we had a pretty gigantic 1,650 SF 2 bed/1 bath fully updated in great condition with garage parking, but it was still kinda cool to know that we busted through the price ceiling of the neighborhood for 2 bed/1 bath condos.

[Vlajos]

^ congrats! I love Edgewater. I'm really torn between where we live now and there for my favorite Chicago neighborhoods.

[the urban politician]

Small tech firms keeping downtown landlords happy:

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/reale...andlords-happy

[Vlajos]

^ nice, note that office vacancy is declining

[rgolch]

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazo...evealed-2018-5

[sixo1]

First of all, a shout out to marothisu for all of the Census data research. Ultimately, that gave me the idea to do the following:

I decided to look into the population growth (from 2010 to 2016) of Millennials (Generation Y) in the 50 largest cities. I define Millennials as those born between 1982-1995. Booming tech cities like Seattle have high millennial growth. Chicago is number 11. Maybe McDonald’s new HQ will catapult Chicago into the top 10. I also noticed that Texas cities are beating out California cities, with the exception of San Francisco. The data on Boston is quite surprising.

New York City: 126,524
San Francisco: 59,233
Houston: 48,726
Seattle: 45,223
Denver: 43,866
Austin: 38,289
Washington, DC: 34,005
Charlotte: 28,403
Dallas: 26,260
Portland: 25,391
Chicago: 23,088
Los Angeles: 21,742
New Orleans: 20,429
Nashville: 18,917
Oakland: 18,772
Forth Worth: 17,551
Columbus: 15,392
San Diego: 14,261
San Jose: 13,737
Miami: 13,310
San Antonio: 13,185
Atlanta: 13,041
Minneapolis: 12,056
Colorado Springs: 10,759
Oklahoma City: 10,077
Raleigh: 9,564
Boston: 3,522
Jacksonville: 3,497
Indianapolis: 3,165
Louisville: 2,012
Sacramento: 1,670
Virginia Beach: 1,293
Omaha: 269
Arlington: 98
Phoenix: -555
Kansas City: -794
Las Vegas: -1,318
El Paso: -1,656
Tulsa: -2,082
Wichita: -2,195
Mesa: -2,378
Baltimore: -3,405
Philadelphia: -3,678
Albuquerque: -3,980
Long Beach: -6,051
Fresno: -10,060
Memphis: -10,454
Tucson: -11,955
Milwaukee: -13,886
Detroit: -32,915

Source: 2010 and 2016 5-year US Census ACS.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by sixo1

First of all, a shout out to marothisu for all of the Census data research. Ultimately, that gave me the idea to do the following:

I decided to look into the population growth (from 2010 to 2016) of Millennials (Generation Y) in the 50 largest cities. I define Millennials as those born between 1982-1995. Booming tech cities like Seattle have high millennial growth. Chicago is number 11. Maybe McDonald’s new HQ will catapult Chicago into the top 10. I also noticed that Texas cities are beating out California cities, with the exception of San Francisco. The data on Boston is quite surprising.

New York City: 126,524
San Francisco: 59,233
Houston: 48,726
Seattle: 45,223
Denver: 43,866
Austin: 38,289
Washington, DC: 34,005
Charlotte: 28,403
Dallas: 26,260
Portland: 25,391
Chicago: 23,088
Los Angeles: 21,742
New Orleans: 20,429
Nashville: 18,917
Oakland: 18,772
Forth Worth: 17,551
Columbus: 15,392
San Diego: 14,261
San Jose: 13,737
Miami: 13,310
San Antonio: 13,185
Atlanta: 13,041
Minneapolis: 12,056
Colorado Springs: 10,759
Oklahoma City: 10,077
Raleigh: 9,564
Boston: 3,522
Jacksonville: 3,497
Indianapolis: 3,165
Louisville: 2,012
Sacramento: 1,670
Virginia Beach: 1,293
Omaha: 269
Arlington: 98
Phoenix: -555
Kansas City: -794
Las Vegas: -1,318
El Paso: -1,656
Tulsa: -2,082
Wichita: -2,195
Mesa: -2,378
Baltimore: -3,405
Philadelphia: -3,678
Albuquerque: -3,980
Long Beach: -6,051
Fresno: -10,060
Memphis: -10,454
Tucson: -11,955
Milwaukee: -13,886
Detroit: -32,915

Source: 2010 and 2016 5-year US Census ACS.

Nice. Why those birth years? Is it because that's basically the closest to how the census reported the data aligning with the notion of millenial? I think Chicago fairs decently well. NYC is not surprising at all. Living here I can tell you this place is crawling with young/young-ish people. Houston is a little surprising but maybe not much.

I like that Chicago beats LA a little in this regard. Am curious as to what downtown Chicago is as well as downtown + surrounding areas. I'll bet it's more than that...

Not surprised by Boston but that's only because of my other studies in which Boston scores surprisingly low lately in a number of categories.

[sixo1]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Nice. Why those birth years? Is it because that's basically the closest to how the census reported the data aligning with the notion of millenial? I think Chicago fairs decently well. NYC is not surprising at all. Living here I can tell you this place is crawling with young/young-ish people. Houston is a little surprising but maybe not much.

I like that Chicago beats LA a little in this regard. Am curious as to what downtown Chicago is as well as downtown + surrounding areas. I'll bet it's more than that...

Not surprised by Boston but that's only because of my other studies in which Boston scores surprisingly low lately in a number of categories.

Yes, those birth years (1982-1995) are aligned closer to Millennials and prevents the inclusion of other generations. Pew Research Center defines Millennials as those born between 1981 and 1996.

[the urban politician]

^ I’m sure that the large exodus of black families from Chicago greatly stunted that number as well

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I find this quite staggering. Despite California, Texas, and New York being 5 zillion times bigger and more populous than Illinois (and with Texas and Cali in particular having multiple major cities), Illinois does quite well in this list. Look at all those wealth generators, those cylinders pumping, in Illinois. There is a near infinite pool of wealth to fuel an ongoing central area boom. We just need to tap it as well as we can.

In addition, despite the joyfully morbid death knells about the "rust belt" from lazy coastal elitist bloggers, northern and north east states continue to be very well represented here. Look at Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Even Minnesota. And much of New York is still part of the "rust belt" as well.

The "rust belt" is over in reality for much of the Upper Midwest. There may still be a few cities stagnating or hung over further East like Detroit or Buffalo, but Milwaukee, Chicago, Pittsburgh, etc have all embarked on a new leg upwards in their histories. Chicago, save for the ancient rail infrastructure and landmark highrises, is virtually unrecognizable even from when I moved here 10 years ago. I was just driving down Belmont over by Schuba's and was like "wtf, where am I". That area used to be mostly vacant lots and Schuba's was the only place around. Now it's wall to wall 3-4 floor buildings and Schuba's has built an absolutely dank modern addition on to the South.

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ I’m sure that the large exodus of black families from Chicago greatly stunted that number as well

I mean just from a law of large numbers perspective, what percentage of the population is Millenial? If 250,000 African Americans have left, odds are about a quarter of them fell into that age range meaning that's probably another 50-60k Millenials Chicago would have but no longer does. I have a feeling that of that 250,000 exodus, it's probably skewed heavily younger as people want to GTFO while they still can. You probably have a lot of grannies living in the house they grew up in who are left behind.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Also, in that business insider article about Rahm emailing with Amazon, there are some juicy tidbits like Rahm telling Amazon "who's your daddy?" and then sending them this link to the Redfin "25 places that have it all" about affordable neighborhoods with all the amenities. Literally the perfect thing to send because over half of the neighborhoods identified by Redfin are in Chicago:

https://www.redfin.com/blog/2018/01/...inventory.html

The numbers don't lie, the more prices rise on the coasts, the better positioned Chicago is to siphon off growth and HQ's and relocate them here to a market with actual housing and labor supply.

[sixo1]

Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright

The "rust belt" is over in reality for much of the Upper Midwest. There may still be a few cities stagnating or hung over further East like Detroit or Buffalo, but Milwaukee, Chicago, Pittsburgh, etc have all embarked on a new leg upwards in their histories. Chicago, save for the ancient rail infrastructure and landmark highrises, is virtually unrecognizable even from when I moved here 10 years ago. I was just driving down Belmont over by Schuba's and was like "wtf, where am I". That area used to be mostly vacant lots and Schuba's was the only place around. Now it's wall to wall 3-4 floor buildings and Schuba's has built an absolutely dank modern addition on to the South.



I mean just from a law of large numbers perspective, what percentage of the population is Millenial? If 250,000 African Americans have left, odds are about a quarter of them fell into that age range meaning that's probably another 50-60k Millenials Chicago would have but no longer does. I have a feeling that of that 250,000 exodus, it's probably skewed heavily younger as people want to GTFO while they still can. You probably have a lot of grannies living in the house they grew up in who are left behind.

According to the 2016 5-year US Census ACS, Chicago has 703,277 Millennials. So you and The Urban Politician might be right.