I've been reviewing the scores and the jury criteria for the projects and as an architect who has been through (and lost all) similar (albeit MUCH MUCH smaller scale) competitions I'd have to say that it's quite likely that we aren't seeing the whole story here.
The design is 50% yes, but the development team including ALL of the design consultants outside of just the architects are considered. Maybe the jury has individual or collective bias against some of these consultants. That alone could drop 20-30 points off a design.
Hines is a developer who gets EVERYTHING done. Any project type, anywhere. For decades. Can you say that about the other two developers? I don't know that answer (not enough information).
While SOM and Rogers have sexier towers and even terminals, are they expensive? Do they have MORE potential for cost over-runs than something that's a little more run-of-the-mill? Arup (with Rogers) may be THE most innovative structural engineers out there...but can they hit a budget?
My point is that the jury judging has ALOT more to do with the project team make-up, relationships, money, and past performance history than simply, is it a kick-ass design?
SOM may very well have put forth the most aesthetically pleasing and iconic design, may have presented their case better than the others, etc, etc, and still have been deducted major points because their project delivery was more cloudy, their project team a little less experienced or less favored by the city (I'm talking about everybody, even the acoustical and ADA consultants). The truth is, we may never know.
In the end it may be JUST about money and land values, but after reading the jury criteria, the architect in me begins to wonder if it's a little deeper than that.
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That being said, I for one would simply like to see any of these three proposals built. I don't care what the final height is, but as long as its the city's tallest and iconic, the actual height is splitting hairs. It's a great project that's been a long time in the making.
While I prefer SOM's tower and Rogers' terminal, the Pelli design is at least moderately visually interesting. He's a great architect, no doubt about that, and I've seen MOST of his major works in person (Canary Wharf being the most notable exception). With regard to Pelli's tower, I think it'll be tall, slender and an underwhelming piece of architecture. I don't think it'll be iconic. Having recently seen 2IFC in Hong Kong in person I have to say that it lives up to its reputation as being just a tall slender tower. Nothing special, nothing over the top, nothing memorable. I remember thinking as I stood at the base that it would be far more interesting if there were TWO of them (you know, that whole WTC dynamic). BTW, 1 and 2 IFC in Hong Kong bookend a major transit terminal Central HK. The program for said terminal is remarkably similar to that of the Transbay project. The engineers for the terminal were Arup. Who was SOM proposing to use?
Just my 10cents...
I'll take that unbelievable SOM entry experience over this anyday: