Quote:
Originally Posted by bob rulz
Not a chance Salt Lake City reaches 300,000 by 2030. I think absolute best case scenario would be 250,000. But otherwise I agree blah, Salt Lake City is turning the corner into becoming a more urban-minded city.
Also good to see you posting on here again!
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Thanks.
Yeah, it's really unknown at this point - it really depends on how quickly the supply chain issues can be resolved in the US economy, cause this has been causing insane delays up and down the housing market.
That said, here is how I got my numbers.
By my current count, there are:
7,534 residential units under construction in Salt Lake City.
13,484 residential units are planned in Salt Lake City.
A total of 21,018 units planned or under construction, which is insane!
For perspective of rapid growth of projects in the city, back in February 2021 we were at 5,841 units under construction and 8,576 units planned for a total of 14,417 units
Thats up a total of 6,601 units from just 10 months ago, not including all the projects that have completed throughout this year.
This year (2021) we have seen the completion of nearly 2,500 units.
Next year (2022) around 5,200 to 5,600 units are scheduled to complete.
In 2023 that will rise again to 6,000 and appears to peak in 2024 with around 6,500 units scheduled to complete.
In the chart below, I thought I would extrapolate out the 2030 population based on if we can continue building at the currently planned 2024 completion rate of around 6,500 units.
It is important to note that this may or may not happen. This year we have had insane levels of delays that has pushed thousands of units down the development schedule into 2022 and 2023. Its hard to say if we will see further delays or project cancellations. Supporting 6,500 unit annual completion has never been done before and it may prove to be too difficult for our current labor pool to be able to support (resulting in more delays).
The chart above shows how the construction of these units may impact the population, depending on the number of people per unit.
By my guess, the population growth will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0 people per unit, likely close to 1.60 to 1.65 people per unit.
Here is my reasoning:
A majority of housing units getting built lately are studio or 1-bedroom units. These are designed for either a single individual or a couple so they will likely be below 1.5 people per unit, but not quite 1.0 either, since couples will raise that average.
2-bedroom+ units will likely have at or above a 2 person average, since many people in these units are couples, small families, or have roomates.
This means it is likely the overall average people per unit is somewhere close to the middle of 1 and 2 people each.
Assuming we can meet and maintain the 6,500 units a year after 2024, 1.5 people per unit (the middle section of the chart) would increase Salt Lake City's population from 200,831 in 2020 to 290,081 people in 2030.
Salt Lake's population will also see a bump next year with the completion of the prison, which will be a 1-time boost to the city's census population for 2030 of a couple thousand people.
Again this all depends on if the supply chain issues can be resolved in the upcoming year and if buildings actually start completing on or closer to on-schedule.
All that said, I think 250,000 is more a floor than a ceiling for the 2030 population.
Let's say next year (2022) we fail to complete the 5,200-5,600 units that are currently planned to complete and build only 5,000 units. Lets go further and say that is where construction peaks and we maintain 5,000 units a year for the rest of the decade.
With 1.5 people per unit, the population would be approximately: 272,081 people by 2030
So I'd say 270,000 by 2030 is a good conservative estimate, barring of course an unexpected collapse in construction, the economy, or society.
We will know more in the next 2 years on how the rest of the decade is likely to play out based on if we see the expected jumps in annual residential unit completions or if we just see more delays.
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