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  #1201  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2020, 4:16 AM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
Have you noticed what I have noticed though? There seems to be way less tolerance for pseudo science, conspiracy theory bullshit recently (corndogger excepted of course). I think if Gwyneth Paltrow or some other loon tries to peddle some anti vax crap now the reaction is going to be "yeah I'd rather live".
Well the antivaxxers have disappeared, but I am seeing a lot of "5G causes coronavirus" types, same people I assume.

Definitely far less than the climate denier circus though.
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  #1202  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 5:44 PM
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Planet of the Humans

In honour of Earth Day(?) the Micheal Moore produced documentary on environmentalism is on youtube free this month. Get used to disappointment doomers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
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‘I believe in science’ is a statement generally made by people who don’t understand much about it. - Judith Curry, Professor Emeritus GIT
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  #1203  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 6:03 PM
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Originally Posted by jawagord View Post
In honour of Earth Day(?) the Micheal Moore produced documentary on environmentalism is on youtube free this month. Get used to disappointment doomers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
I'll probably regret asking this, but: what's a "disappointment doomer"?
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  #1204  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 6:29 PM
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I'll probably regret asking this, but: what's a "disappointment doomer"?
“Get used to disappointment”, doomer.
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The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound. That's why Darwin will always be right and Malthus will always be wrong - K.R.Sridhar

‘I believe in science’ is a statement generally made by people who don’t understand much about it. - Judith Curry, Professor Emeritus GIT
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  #1205  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 6:35 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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“Get used to disappointment”, doomer.
Alberta oil boosters and believers need to get used to disappointment.
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  #1206  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 6:59 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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I don't think a future where we use much less fossil fuel has be a disappointing one, but I'd be much more disappointed with a future where we permanently wrecked the planet despite us knowing full well what was happening, than the alternative of us being somewhat less well off in the short term, and better off in the long run because we still have a less wrecked planet.
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  #1207  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:02 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
I don't think a future where we use much less fossil fuel has be a disappointing one, but I'd be much more disappointed with a future where we permanently wrecked the planet despite us knowing full well what was happening, than the alternative of us being somewhat less well off in the short term, and better off in the long run because we still have a less wrecked planet.
Funny how much this describes COVID19 as well, replacing planet with old people.
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  #1208  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:04 PM
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People that care about the substantial negative impact of human activity on the environment (corroborated by tens of thousands of studies, for which there is a consensus in the scientific community*^) have long gotten used to disappointment, as efforts to mitigate anthropogenic climate change are constantly thwarted by politicians, governments, corporations, and their enablers, including people like the climate-change deniers on on this site.

*https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
^https://www.skepticalscience.com/glo...termediate.htm

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Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest in history. […] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Building on two previous studies, a landmark 2013 peer-reviewed study evaluated 10,306 scientists to confirm that over 97 percent climate scientists agree, and over 97 percent of scientific articles find that global warming is real and largely caused by humans.

A 2016 peer-reviewed paper examined existing studies on consensus in climate research, and concluded that the 97 percent estimate is robust.

This level of consensus is equivalent to the level of agreement among scientists that smoking causes cancer – a statement that very few people, if any, contest today.
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/glo...-primary-cause
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  #1209  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:07 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Alberta oil boosters and believers need to get used to disappointment.
This. The thought that 2019 was the absolute peak is unbelievable to them. But it could turn out to be very true.
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  #1210  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:20 PM
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Alberta oil boosters and believers need to get used to disappointment.
The disappointment is that the supposed substitute technologies like bio fuels, wind and solar don't work all that well, and nothing else is on the horizon.
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  #1211  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:28 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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The disappointment is that the supposed substitute technologies like bio fuels, wind and solar don't work all that well, and nothing else is on the horizon.
As we are seeing, it doesn't take a total collapse in demand to turn the market completely upside down.

Reality has a way of not caring.
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  #1212  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:43 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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As we are seeing, it doesn't take a total collapse in demand to turn the market completely upside down.

Reality has a way of not caring.
Bingo. Imagine a world where 2019 was peak and substitution means the world never surpasses that level of demand. Even in a recovery. Any scenario where there's no growth in demand would see every producer rushing to dump their oil tanking prices. Exactly what we see now.

The entire sector has bet the farm on Emerging Markets not just replacing OECD demand, but growing overall demand. A scenario where growth doesn't happen would destroy them.
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  #1213  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 7:46 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by jawagord View Post
In honour of Earth Day(?) the Micheal Moore produced documentary on environmentalism is on youtube free this month. Get used to disappointment doomers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
You're happy that we're losing the fight against climate change?
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  #1214  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 10:42 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
As we are seeing, it doesn't take a total collapse in demand to turn the market completely upside down.

Reality has a way of not caring.
We are seeing a total collapse in demand. How much of it is long term is the uncertainty.

Low pricing over the past few years has been due to the unexpected rise of US shale. Those reserves will be short lived. So far, the technology that enabled US shale hasn't unlocked significant reserves elsewhere.
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  #1215  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2020, 10:43 PM
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You're happy that we're losing the fight against climate change?
Happy that disingenuous celebrity activists may be turning on one another.
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  #1216  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 7:30 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
As we are seeing, it doesn't take a total collapse in demand to turn the market completely upside down.

Reality has a way of not caring.
.... but we are seeing a complete collapse in demand. In almost every single industry. Worldwide. Reality is a global pandemic exists. And markets simply reflect that people are, in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, staying at home, not demanding much of anything at all, except online streaming, and food. Governments are in fact flooding the market with free money, because there is next to zero consumerism.
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  #1217  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 7:36 AM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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You're happy that we're losing the fight against climate change?
Probably happy that the truth is being told, instead of the condescending lies we continuously hear from the greens. Not some fictitious make believe world that green energy can support our societies. It’s nice to face reality head on... does a carbon tax make sense only to revert to an alternative that may be just as harmful to the environment.
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  #1218  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 1:18 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
Not some fictitious make believe world that green energy can support our societies. .
It's not a question of whether we can do this. We have to figure it out, as our survival (in a way resembling our current way of life) depends on it.

It's not there yet, but there's very little that can't be run on electricity if we have enough of it. Planes are one, but if we can get to the point where clean electricity is cheap enough, then creating synthetic fuel or using direct air capture of CO2 is possible. And if it means jet fuel is more expensive, even significantly, that's not the end of the world. People have only had cheap access to air travel for a few decades, it's a worthwhile cost.

Easiest way to get to the point where we can do what we want to do cheaply, without making CO2, is encourage the private sector to find out how. With carbon pricing.
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  #1219  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 3:25 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
It's not a question of whether we can do this. We have to figure it out, as our survival (in a way resembling our current way of life) depends on it.

It's not there yet, but there's very little that can't be run on electricity if we have enough of it. Planes are one, but if we can get to the point where clean electricity is cheap enough, then creating synthetic fuel or using direct air capture of CO2 is possible. And if it means jet fuel is more expensive, even significantly, that's not the end of the world. People have only had cheap access to air travel for a few decades, it's a worthwhile cost.

Easiest way to get to the point where we can do what we want to do cheaply, without making CO2, is encourage the private sector to find out how. With carbon pricing.
I agree... we completely have the ability to run the entire globe on "renewable" energy right now.... but it is completely unrealistic and not dependable. Coal or Nat gas fire plants still have to run, releasing CO2 even when renewables are providing energy to the grid... but its not necessarily just CO2 that is the concern, it is the overall environment damage that goes with green energy. All the inputs required to develop windfarms and solar panels are quite detrimental to the environment, at times even moreso than FF fired plants. There is still a significant CO2 output that goes into making solar panels and windmills, with a very short lifespan compared to FF fired plants. There is quite a damaging environmental footprint that goes into implementing green energy, all while still completely dependent on FF energy... so the question may be, why not continue to enhance the efficiency of FF, instead of dumping billions into "green energy", all while still 100% dependent on FF? Therefore the billions spent on "green energy" is almost wasted, so spend the billions in enhancing efficiencies in FF, as society is so dependent on the reliable energy source.

Perhaps its not a question of converting to "green" energy, rather continuing to enhance the efficiency and carbon footprint of FF's. These enhancements have already made leaps in efficiency even in the last 5 years, with billions of dollars spent, largely by the private sector, to make those enhancements.. is it a carbon tax that drove those enhancements, or is it the fact that we are in a "climate emergency". And in the end, does it really even matter?... I agree with you, it is price that will ultimately convert people from using ICE vehicles to electric vehicles, but that doesn't necessarily mean it is a healthy switch, with respect to the environment. I think it is a complete waste if the goal is to switch to "green energy", because the "green energy" is not actually "green", as society will 100% continue to be dependant on FF's, if what is presented in that documentary is correct.

There is SO much information out there of the steps made by Canadian energy companies that have made huge investments and proven technologies that tangibly reduces Canadian carbon footprint, for a source of energy that society will always demand. Why would people want to abandon such ingenuity and enhancements to opt for a technology that still completely relies on the technology it is supposed to replace?

Long winded, I know...
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  #1220  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 6:11 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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I agree... we completely have the ability to run the entire globe on "renewable" energy right now.... but it is completely unrealistic and not dependable. Coal or Nat gas fire plants still have to run, releasing CO2 even when renewables are providing energy to the grid... but its not necessarily just CO2 that is the concern, it is the overall environment damage that goes with green energy. All the inputs required to develop windfarms and solar panels are quite detrimental to the environment, at times even moreso than FF fired plants. There is still a significant CO2 output that goes into making solar panels and windmills, with a very short lifespan compared to FF fired plants. There is quite a damaging environmental footprint that goes into implementing green energy, all while still completely dependent on FF energy...
Ah. Those Faux News talking points are out in full strength today.

The great news is that opinions are irrelevant and the market moves quite nicely based on prices alone. Like peaker plants being replaced by giant batteries for example. No amount of FUD and Fake News will stop progress when there's $$$ on the line.

This blip in oil demand? It's going to happen again in a decade as EVs actually start displacing oil consumption. And no amount of bullshit will change that future.
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