The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread - Page 61

Taeolas · #**1201** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 12:06 PM**

I wouldn't say Never about Oromocto, but it's probably going to be a few decades. The base will certainly keep Oromocto somewhat isolated from Freddy's commuter pull; but as the city grows and Lincoln fills in, the pull will keep increasing.

If the city ever smartens up about Transit, they should make a Capital Region transit and have a route or two that goes from Oromocto to Regent Mall or similar; that would increase the commuter pull as well.

But yeah, Oromocto probably won't get folded into the Freddy CMA until 2050's or later at best.

adamuptownsj · #**1202** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 1:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I wouldn't say Never about Oromocto, but it's probably going to be a few decades. The base will certainly keep Oromocto somewhat isolated from Freddy's commuter pull; but as the city grows and Lincoln fills in, the pull will keep increasing.

If the city ever smartens up about Transit, they should make a Capital Region transit and have a route or two that goes from Oromocto to Regent Mall or similar; that would increase the commuter pull as well.

But yeah, Oromocto probably won't get folded into the Freddy CMA until 2050's or later at best.

New!Oromocto that includes the big chunk of Lincoln between the airport and Fredericton's expanded boundaries is definitely more in the Fredericton than Old!Oromocto that was entirely to the airport's east, sure. But that's a sprawling exurban area unlikely to use much transit. 'Urban Oromocto' residents probably almost never commute to Fredericton.

MonctonRad · #**1203** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 1:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

'Urban Oromocto' residents probably almost never commute to Fredericton.

Which is the issue. They are employed locally in Oromocto (CFB Gagetown), hence are not commuters, but probably still interact with the city of Fredericton otherwise on an almost daily basis. They are truly pseudo-Frederictonians.

Same thing with Shediac and Moncton.

MonctonRad · #**1204** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 2:23 PM**

Recopied from the main Canada section statistic thread:

You can add schools and health care facilities to Scotty's proclamation as well..........

darkharbour · #**1205** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 5:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Recopied from the main Canada section statistic thread:

I'm a little sad not seeing Saint John on that graph, we finally reversed decades of downward trends and exceeded the national average growth rate, throw us a bone here

Nashe · #**1206** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 5:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I'm a little sad not seeing Saint John on that graph, we finally reversed decades of downward trends and exceeded the national average growth rate, throw us a bone here

Using the data from the site, I get:

Saint John 132761 (2021) to 135622 (2022) so +2.16%
Fredericton (CA) 112428 (2021) to 116159 (2022) so +3.32%

MonctonRad · #**1207** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 5:18 PM**

SJ is still growing faster than Toronto.

adamuptownsj · #**1208** Posted **Jan 12, 2023, 9:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Which is the issue. They are employed locally in Oromocto (CFB Gagetown), hence are not commuters, but probably still interact with the city of Fredericton otherwise on an almost daily basis. They are truly pseudo-Frederictonians.

Same thing with Shediac and Moncton.

Was the Fredericton/Oromocto jigsaw border drawn that way because Fredericton wanted the airport in its tax base, but the areas between wanted to stay out of the capital?

DB_in_Cbus · #**1209** Posted **Jan 13, 2023, 5:47 AM**

Numbers for Nova Scotia's large population centers (since 2018):

Halifax (RGM): +11.9%
Bridgewater (T): +6.8
New Glasgow (T): +5.1
Kentville (T): +4.8
Truro (T): +4.2
Yarmouth (T): +2.1
Amherst (T): +1.7
Cape Breton (RGM): -0.9

With all of the new housing being announced for Bridgewater, I would expect a reach for 10k by 2026. Halifax will easily be over 500k, perhaps around 550k.

Honestly, I don't think any of this is sustainable. Have the fundamentals of the Maritime economies, particularly outside of Halifax and Moncton, really changed that much to support all of this? I'm originally from Bridgewater and I know that, while clearly benefiting from proximity to Halifax, there is really nothing driving this growth but growth itself.

Lobster chucker · #**1210** Posted **Jan 13, 2023, 12:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampduLarge

Beaubassin, it may be that Shediac gets absorbed into the CMA. Something that seems certain to me is that all of what is now the municipality of "Maple Hills", along the north edge of Moncton, will become part of Moncton's CMA. Most of it might be already, but where I am, I was outside of the CMA, but I am pretty sure they will re-visit that and I will get included in 2026. It may be that if they have to revisit that, they look at the whole CMA. Windsor got quite the boost last census, maybe it's our turn next.

As a side note. The population for the maple hills I’m told is just shy of 11k. According to the new CAO which is impressive and technically puts it ahead of current “cities “ in NB

bridgeoftea · #**1211** Posted **Jan 13, 2023, 12:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Recopied from the main Canada section statistic thread:

You can add schools and health care facilities to Scotty's proclamation as well..........

things you love to see!

gehrhardt · #**1212** Posted **Jan 13, 2023, 12:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DB_in_Cbus

Honestly, I don't think any of this is sustainable. Have the fundamentals of the Maritime economies, particularly outside of Halifax and Moncton, really changed that much to support all of this? .

The amount of people that can work remotely now compared to 2019 has to factor into this. We moved to HRM this year from Moncton because I changed jobs, and my wife didn't even need to leave her job. She's 100% remote.

I agree that this growth rate is not sustainable. Infrastructure and services need time to catch up.

Freddypop · #**1213** Posted **Jan 13, 2023, 9:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

Estimates for census subdivisions

Moncton (C) 85,802 (+4,137) +5.1%
Saint John (C) 73,611 (+1,759) +2.4%
Fredericton (C) 66,879 (+1,982) +3.1%
Dieppe (C) 31,535 (+2,004) +6.8%
Riverview (TV) 21,352 (+603) +2.9%
Quispamsis (TV) 19,454 (+308) +1.6%
Miramichi (C) 18,283 (+231) +1.3%
Edmundston (C) 17,026 (+163) +1.0%
Tracadie (RGM) 16,424 (+229) +1.4%
Bathurst (C) 12,370 (+29) +0.2%
Rothesay (TV) 12,260 (+113) +0.9%
Oromocto (TV) 10,020 (+177) +1.8%
Shediac (TV) 8,182 (+512) +6.7%
Beaubassin East / Beaubassin-est (RCR) 7,620 (+516) +7.2%
Sackville (TV) 6,152 (+194) +3.3%
Woodstock (TV) 5,849 (+198) +3.5%
Memramcook (VL) 5,352 (+225) +4.4%
Grand Falls / Grand-Sault (TV) 5,313 (+11) +0.2%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710014201

Add the 4300 souls due to municipal reform that occurred on January 1 this year, Fredericton proper now has a population of approx 71000

MonctonRad · #**1214** Posted **Jan 26, 2023, 3:04 PM**

The T&T had these little statistical nuggets released by APEC, based on the recent census estimates:

1) - St. John's (NL), 2.3% annual growth rate (219,000), St. John's now accounts for 42% of the total population of NL.
2) - Charlottetown (PE), 4.2% annual growth rate (87,000), #3 growth rate in Canada, now accounts for 51% of the population of PEI.
3) - Halifax (NS), 4.5% annual growth rate (480,000), #2 growth rate in Canada, now accounting for 47% of the total population of NS.
4) - Moncton (NB), 5.4% annual growth rate (172,000), #1 growth rate in Canada, accounting for 21% of the total population of NB.

The primate cities in NS, PEI and NL now all account for more than 40% of the population of their respective provinces, with Charlottetown actually accounting for the majority of the Island population.

NB is of course different with three relatively equivalent cities, but, lumped together, NB also has close to 50% of the population living in larger urban centres.

EDIT:

Here's some more APEC info from Huddle - a good article.

Moncton, Halifax Lead Canada In Population Growth
Moncton, Halifax, and Charlottetown are leading Canada in population growth as an increasing number of young adults chose to make Atlantic Canada their home.
https://huddle.today/2023/01/26/monc...lation-growth/

Bishop2047 · #**1215** Posted **Jan 26, 2023, 3:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The T&T had these little statistical nuggets released by APEC, based on the recent census estimates:

1) - St. John's (NL), 2.3% annual growth rate (219,000), St. John's now accounts for 42% of the total population of NL.
2) - Charlottetown (PE), 4.2% annual growth rate (87,000), #3 growth rate in Canada, now accounts for 51% of the population of PEI.
3) - Halifax (NS), 4.5% annual growth rate (480,000), #2 growth rate in Canada, now accounting for 47% of the total population of NS.
4) - Moncton (NB), 5.4% annual growth rate (172,000), #1 growth rate in Canada, accounting for 21% of the total population of NB.

The primate cities in NS, PEI and NL now all account for more than 40% of the population of their respective provinces, with Charlottetown actually accounting for the majority of the Island population.

NB is of course different with three relatively equivalent cities, but, lumped together, NB also has close to 50% of the population living in larger urban centres.

Saint John : 135,622
Fredericton : 116,159
Moncton : 171,608

- 423,389 in 2022 between the NB CMAs as of the Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries. The Q2 of 2022 Estimates for NB total population is 802,862.

-Roughly 53 percent of NB population was in a CMA as of July (ish) of last year. This is already pretty dated and the percentage is changing rapidly. NB has added an estimated 20,000 more since this estimate, and surely most will land in one of the CMAs.

Sunnybrae · #**1216** Posted **Jan 26, 2023, 5:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Recopied from the main Canada section statistic thread:

You can add schools and health care facilities to Scotty's proclamation as well..........

Well I do see schools being built but hospitals? Yah right. Given the fact too that boomers are in there late 50's now, its only going to get worse.

MonctonRad · #**1217** Posted **Feb 19, 2023, 2:45 AM**

Matt Codiac over at Retail Talk & Share (who used to be active on SSP as mmmatt) did up this informative graph showing building permit valuation in the NB CMAs over the last 12 years.

You can easily see the steadily accelerating valuation in the Moncton CMA building permits over the last five years.

Fredericton is only present for the 2022 calendar year (first year that CMA stats are available for that metropolitan area).

MonctonRad · #**1218** Posted **Mar 13, 2023, 1:02 PM**

NB has just passed the 825k mark on the Canada Population Clock (825,014 this morning).

Next stop - 850k.

MonctonRad · #**1219** Posted **Mar 22, 2023, 2:35 PM**

They've just readjusted the population clock again. NB has instantly added over 3,000 new residents.

Current StatsCan population estimates:

NS - 1,041,706
NB - 828,079
NL - 532,514
PE - 175,371

TOTAL - 2,577,670

For the first time ever, the combined NB/PEI population exceeds 1M (1,003,450)

bridgeoftea · #**1220** Posted **Mar 22, 2023, 3:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

They've just readjusted the population clock again. NB has instantly added over 3,000 new residents.

Current StatsCan population estimates:

NS - 1,041,706
NB - 828,079
NL - 532,514
PE - 175,371

TOTAL - 2,577,670

For the first time ever, the combined NB/PEI population exceeds 1M (1,003,450)

It's crazy how close NB and NS are getting.