Queen's Park Politics

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

McGuinty averaged FAR greater deficits than Bob Rae per year. In the years 2008-2012, more debt was added by McGuinty than by EVERY other Premier COMBINED.

Wynne might be turning it around, maybe. But I am skeptical. Not that Hudak or Horwath would have done any better...

Hyperbole on top of copious amounts of hyperbole. There is something that happened in 2008, I am sure you know what that is. Governments have a choice of sitting back and doing nothing, or performing. McGuinty chose to perform.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Yes. Yes. Yes.

I was surprised by the Liberal majority, but it gave me some faith in humanity. Sorry conservatives (though not really!), but this election result has made me feel like I belong here. I wasn't in the country for Mike Harris, but I heard it about all the time from my dad. It sounded terrible.

Another thing: Wynne has a "wynne-some" personality. I'm a lifetime Liberal voter, but this is the first time I've actually found myself liking a politician to any degree. She seems more genuine than the other two. Did you catch the immediate post-result interviews with Hudak and Horvath last night? Every time they finished speaking they broke out into a broad smile that was so fake and practiced it wasn't funny. Clearly their handlers had schooled them on this. It was bizarre and disturbing.

Somehow Wynne doesn't come across as fake. Granted, she's still a politician, with everything that that entails, but still. Actually, gulp, to be honest, I think she's the only politician I've ever really liked. I can't think of anyone else. Maybe Bill Clinton can be charming, but he's also slimey, so that sort of negates it.

Wynne for the win!

I'm quite fond of Wynne for this reason. I felt she was "too honest" during the debates and didn't get back at Hudak quickly enough. Its reassuring to see voters saw the debate for what it was, an honest forthright agenda from Wynne and apologies for the mistakes that were made, a Hudak ready to take out the butcher knife as a solution for EVERYTHING, and a Horwath that wants to lower taxes and lower some more taxes, while expanding government simultaneously. Turns out Horwath didn't really make sense, but as usual as the leader of the NDP her gains were a loss.

The Liberals most certainly have made mistakes in the past decade, but they've corrected those mistakes. The Gas Plant "scandal" is less a scandal since every party was calling for the cancellation of them. Voters seemed to get it by the end of the day... I suppose a lesson in politics is when you are a politician who wants to make scandalous spending the forefront of your campaign, and you were calling for that very scandalous spending to break those gas plant contracts yourself, well those arguments tend to not work so well. Hypocrisy is one thing, blatant advertising of hypocrisy is another.

Wynne isn't perfect, she'll likely have some issues during her leadership to overcome, but she certainly has the more-honest-than-average feeling that is refreshing in politics.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

Sue Ann has some problems with reality. The gay issue was so low key most people didn't think nor care about it, which is a refreshing change. It was a natural election cycle not focused on childish language surrounding personal characteristics.

Thank God for that.

[Ottawa superman]

Originally Posted by Gun'eeu

Elections Ontario has flipped Thornhill back to PC.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_...try_error.html

Ontario Elections told Martow this reversal is a very unusual situation, she says, and likely a first for Ontario.

Yeung Racco’s team said Saturday afternoon that they would now seek a judicial recount, expressing alarm at data inaccuracies in 13 polls.

[eternallyme]

The key question is whether or not ANYONE can beat the Liberals with the current demographics. The divide within the PC's is probably too wide to bridge (trying to steal from the Liberals would decimate the base)...and the NDP is badly divided too (between the populists and the radical activists).

[waterloowarrior]

^ I think people are more pragmatic than you give them credit for. Harper went to the centre and still gets votes from the base, even if they grumble that he won't touch certain issues. Ontario isn't like Alberta, the PC dynasty of the past is no more and PCs have only been in power 9 of the last 30 years.

[flar]

I also don't think the base is as far right as some think.

There are certainly elements of hard right in Ontario, particularly in rural sw and eastern Ontario, but the average still tilts toward progressive political ideals in these places. They aren't psycho anti-government racists. The main thing the "hard right" in Ontario shares with the Tea Party is anger and resentment.

A more centrist PC party with a competent non-upper-middle-class/non-Torontonian leader could easily win (Hudak had no business being leader and few were prepared to give him a position like Premier)

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by flar

I also don't think the base is as far right as some think.

There are certainly elements of hard right in Ontario, particularly in rural sw and eastern Ontario, but the average still tilts toward progressive political ideals in these places. They aren't psycho anti-government racists. The main thing the "hard right" in Ontario shares with the Tea Party is anger and resentment.

A more centrist PC party with a competent non-upper-middle-class/non-Torontonian leader could easily win (Hudak had no business being leader and few were prepared to give him a position like Premier)

Given John Tory's failure, I have a hard time seeing any PC leader who could win in Toronto unless the Liberals completely collapse. Even under the current map, being wiped out in the GTA means you have to run the table elsewhere to form government. In the next map, it will be virtually impossible even with that.

There seems to be a civil war in the NDP right now, their Toronto wing (which tends to be farther to the left) is mad right now. But I don't see hard-left policies winning anywhere other than central Toronto.

[flar]

The city of Toronto is a lost cause for conservative politics. But the 905 is totally in play, as long as they play to the centre. In fact, the 905 is key, both federally and provincially. The Mike Harris PCs saw that, and Harper saw that, not sure what the current Ontario PCs were thinking. Obviously their strategists are complete morons.

[Elmira Guy]

Originally Posted by Doug

Greece hid its true debt through derivatives and aggressive accounting. Ontario will get cut off well in advance of its debt hitting levels that could lead to default. The 90's were somewhat similar. The Rae government borrowed itself into oblivion and had to implement more austerity (ex. Rae days) than if it had simply addressed the fiscal issues sooner.

He says as he rubs his hands together with glee and hope.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by flar

The city of Toronto is a lost cause for conservative politics. But the 905 is totally in play, as long as they play to the centre. In fact, the 905 is key, both federally and provincially. The Mike Harris PCs saw that, and Harper saw that, not sure what the current Ontario PCs were thinking. Obviously their strategists are complete morons.

Yep. Which is why they should be fired (assuming they haven't been already), though I'd much rather the PC's put their feet in their mouths and remind us all how silly to horrible they can be.

[1overcosc]

It should be noted that rural Ontarians anti-establishment ideas are just as anti-big business as they are anti-government. A progressive party could easily win rural seats by appealing heavily to anti-corporate populism. Bob Rae's 1990 win included a lot of rural seats gained through this method.

[SteelTown]

Tim Hudak to step down as Ontario PC leader on July 2

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...ly-2-1.2680181

Ontario Progressive Leader Tim Hudak has told his party he'll be stepping aside from his leadership role in two weeks' time.

Hudak has sent a letter to the PC caucus, announcing his intent to step down as leader on July 2. The Canadian Press reports that the letter was sent out today.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by flar

The city of Toronto is a lost cause for conservative politics. But the 905 is totally in play, as long as they play to the centre. In fact, the 905 is key, both federally and provincially. The Mike Harris PCs saw that, and Harper saw that, not sure what the current Ontario PCs were thinking. Obviously their strategists are complete morons.

I think PC Ontario's strategists under Hudak genuinely thought supporting subways was a magical entry into winning a few Toronto seats and they didn't realize it takes a full platform of ideas. They didn't anticipate winning all of Toronto, but they thought it would win a couple 905 seats and draw in areas like Etobicoke. Combine a few urban wins with a rural rout, and the PC Ontario really thought they had keys to a minority or majority government.

For all intents and purposes, I think Hudak won the televised debate over Wynne. Wynne looked defeated several times in that debate. So it obviously wasn't the debate that won the election for the Liberals. This really came down to what people thought about Hudak's rather extreme platform of 100k cuts I think. I've seen tons of right wing American campaigns, and I am not aware of a figure this high up on the chain openly running on that big of an austerity plan... Ontario got a true right wing nutbag to run.

I think people also saw through the constant reporting on the gas plant scandal for what it was. There isn't much traction in a scandal when all three parties called for the cancellation of the construction of them. The Liberals wasted money by cancelling it, but there wouldn't have been another result with a different party in power at the end of the day, so their howls for scandal were mostly falling on deaf ears. Hudak's credibility was further reduced when he was the cutter-in-chief, yet he wanted people to think he wouldn't have cut out those gas plants and cancel them. Hudak spoke so clearly out of both sides of his mouth and the subway support looked like pandering when he literally wouldn't support any other transit project in the entire province. Their policies are what brought them down, and the ease of seeing when they were lying through their teeth. Who actually believes Hudak would fund a subway in his cut, cut, cut mentality?

[eternallyme]

I know the Red Tory wing is pushing to take back the leadership, but their policies, if anything, are left of the Liberals. They would splinter the party and ensure Liberal near-sweeps.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I know the Red Tory wing is pushing to take back the leadership, but their policies, if anything, are left of the Liberals. They would splinter the party and ensure Liberal near-sweeps.

I strongly disagree. I'm not a Tory, but if the progressive Tories rise up, take their party back, and field a centrist candidate that believes in using the power of government, they'd decimate the Ontario Liberals and rout to victory in 4 years. That is, if Wynne can't perform and the province isn't in significantly better shape come 4 years. It would have to be a true progressive switch from the Hudak era, one that wouldn't expand public funding of religious schools (and wouldn't advocate cutting the existing system since its a useless fight against an entire bloc of voters), one that would fund all forms of transit and stay above the fray in debating what kind is better, and it would have to be a leader that would invest in health care and education. It would have to be a progressive that supports more prudent use of the budget, but not one that cuts mindlessly.

This election should teach the PC Ontario movement that cuts based on ideology don't lead to electoral success, this means that progressives have to take PC Ontario back in order for it to lead.

Besides, if they don't become more progressive, they should just drop the P and be the C party. If there is no progressive left in the party, why pretend?

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

I strongly disagree. I'm not a Tory, but if the progressive Tories rise up, take their party back, and field a centrist candidate that believes in using the power of government, they'd decimate the Ontario Liberals and rout to victory in 4 years. That is, if Wynne can't perform and the province isn't in significantly better shape come 4 years. It would have to be a true progressive switch from the Hudak era, one that wouldn't expand public funding of religious schools (and wouldn't advocate cutting the existing system since its a useless fight against an entire bloc of voters), one that would fund all forms of transit and stay above the fray in debating what kind is better, and it would have to be a leader that would invest in health care and education. It would have to be a progressive that supports more prudent use of the budget, but not one that cuts mindlessly.

This election should teach the PC Ontario movement that cuts based on ideology don't lead to electoral success, this means that progressives have to take PC Ontario back in order for it to lead.

Besides, if they don't become more progressive, they should just drop the P and be the C party. If there is no progressive left in the party, why pretend?

You totally forgot about the conservative base there. They represent about 20% of the electorate, heavily concentrated in rural and small town ridings. They WANT the P dropped from the name.

If 20% of the electorate gets alienated and goes to a new party, how in the world could the PC's beat the Liberals if they are starting at around 10% and no seats (the rural seats would be gone, either to the Liberals/NDP due to vote splitting, or to the new base party outright)? Do they expect to swing the majority of Liberal and NDP supporters?

[Doady]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

You totally forgot about the conservative base there. They represent about 20% of the electorate, heavily concentrated in rural and small town ridings. They WANT the P dropped from the name.

If 20% of the electorate gets alienated and goes to a new party, how in the world could the PC's beat the Liberals if they are starting at around 10% and no seats (the rural seats would be gone, either to the Liberals/NDP due to vote splitting, or to the new base party outright)? Do they expect to swing the majority of Liberal and NDP supporters?

You're exaggerating things.

In most rural ridings in this election, even excluding Northern Ontario, the Conservatives made up a minority of the vote. The majority of people in those rural ridings voted for someone other than Conservative. The Conservatives lost support in most if not all rural ridiings this election compared to the 2011 election. The "conservative base" is like 8 or 9% of Ontario at best.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Doady

You're exaggerating things.

In most rural ridings in this election, even excluding Northern Ontario, the Conservatives made up a minority of the vote. The majority of people in those rural ridings voted for someone other than Conservative. The Conservatives lost support in most if not all rural ridiings this election compared to the 2011 election. The "conservative base" is like 8 or 9% of Ontario at best.

The Reform/Alliance typically got about 15-22% in Ontario in the 1990s in elections and polls. That is a good indication on who would jump ship. It won't win them many seats, but it would decimate the PC's and benefit the Liberals.

Take Riding A, a hypothetical conservative base riding:

Current results - PC 45%, LIB 35%, NDP 15%, GRN 4%

Split the vote - LIB 35%, New Party 28%, NDP 23%, PC 17%, GRN 5% - the winner changes!

Or take Riding B, a battleground riding:

Current results - LIB 37%, PC 33%, NDP 25%, GRN 4%

Split the vote - LIB 37%, NDP 25%, New Party 18%, PC 15%, GRN 4% - not even competitive anymore!

[Doady]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The Reform/Alliance typically got about 15-22% in Ontario in the 1990s in elections and polls.

Well, sure. They had some support in the urban areas too, didn't they?

8 or 9% in the rural Ontario, the rest in urban Ontario. It's not black and white.

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Split the vote - LIB 35%, New Party 28%, NDP 23%, PC 17%, GRN 5% - the winner changes!

That's overly simplistic. New Party is hard right, PC's become soft right, then the PC's will appeal more to centrists and the soft left and steal the current Liberal vote.

More like:

PC 35%, New Party 28%, NDP 23%, Liberal 17%, GRN 5% - the winner doesn't change!

New Party stealing from PC, PC stealing from Liberal, Liberal stealing from NDP, that's the way it will be.