Climate change predicted to transform Vancouver into San Diego, but at a heavy cost

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by jhausner

As for us becoming San Diego, I think that is wishful thinking. You can't change our location vertically on the globe, San Diego is in a particularly special spot where the Earth's tilt is less extreme than here in Vancouver so as you switch seasons the shift away and toward the Sun is far less than in Vancouver.

We could see summers LIKE in San Diego (or maybe worse), but our swing between Winter + Summer will stay the same, it is not like climate change is affecting the tilt of the planet and therefor how much time the Sun is up every day here. What that means is we will see more extremes between the two likely so hotter summers and colder winters, or just more inconsistent weather.

But we will not be San Diego, not unless you scoop Metro Vancouver off the earth and plonk it down in southern California. :| Sometimes I wonder who writes these articles. I mean let's face it, people can't predict weather with accuracy more than 3 or 4 days out even with the most sophisticated super computers. Short term and even medium term climate fluctuations are also barely modellable still. I just think the best anyone even "climate scientists" can actually say about a specific point on Earth is that "shit is going to be changing" but how and when is all pure speculation on their part.

Well, it was a Vancouver Sun journalist called Larry Pynn 'a veteran environmental journalist, the recipient of some 30 writing awards, including eight Jack Webster Awards.' So he probably understood the science, and had no doubt been asked to write a piece based on the 70 page report that Metro Vancouver published in 2016.

That report isn't about short term change - so it wasn't trying to predict weather events in the current decades. It's about the climate change the region will likely see (based on the best mid 2010s climate modelling) in the 2050s and for some topics, the 2080s as well. It's also about the impact this will have on demand for heating, cooling, water supply and the likely effects on agriculture, for example.

It doesn't actually state that Metro Vancouver will be 'like' San Diego. The reference to that city is that the average summer daytime temperature here is expected to rise to around 25 in 2050, and 27 in 2080 - both higher than San Diego's average daytime summer temperature of 24 today. But the nighttime high isn't expected to be as high as San Diego, and the winter high is projected to rise, but not by as much as in summer, and nowhere near the average 19 degrees San Diego sees in January, for example.

We're not expected to have colder winters - they'll be (on average) warmer too; model suggests a much lower snowpack in the future, with some serious consequences for recreational employment, power generation and water supply. The modelling suggests longer dry spells in summer months, more precipitation in fall, winter, and spring, and more intense extreme events.

It appears that we're seeing many of those changes already. That might suggest that imminent climate change, and its impacts on the built form, the liveability and the economy of cities, and health of the residents is something to take far more seriously than some of the dismissive comments here suggest.

[Metro-One]

Saying Vancouver will be like San Diego is hyperbolic nonsense. There are too many factors at play that shape our two climates.

A more accurate and truthful prediction is that Vancouver will become more like Portland Oregon. That means more frequent heatwaves in the summer, more dramatic contrast between the wet and dry season, overall a milder winter but one that is still susceptible to harsh arctic blasts.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by djh

... I saw this same subject discussed on reddit the other day and it linked to a really good video that explained wave destruction and different solutions to mitigate it. The best suggestion (in this simplified lab example) was to pile netted rocks in the path of the tidal surges, as they are incredibly effective at absorbing the energy and dispersing it.

Parts of the seawall already have something similar to this (I'm thinking specifically in South False Creek, to the east of Granville Island). It works. If this approach was used on the most exposed areas of the seawall, especially Stanley Park facing the inbound tide, we could probably save decades more of studies and tens of millions of temporary patches. And with all of the excavation for development happening, wouldn't it be easy to get hold of various sizes of suitable rock for this use, basically for no cost to the city?

This is a solved problem! I don't get how in all of these years that a long-term solution hasn't been implemented. My thinking is that perhaps the Parks Board are not experienced enough in these matters, or are only looking for band-aid fixes with their (relatively) small budgets, or are only looking to hold the status-quo to assure re-election. Really, this is more of a provincial (or perhaps even federal)-scale problem that needs a proper long-term solution.

Was wondering when that video would come up! Don't think we need rocks for the armour, though; NYC's doing it with used oyster shells.

Yeah, the Parks Board probably doesn't have the budget or talent for anything more than repairing the existing design... which means this is probably becoming a headline again within the next twelve months.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Saying Vancouver will be like San Diego is hyperbolic nonsense. There are too many factors at play that shape our two climates

i agree the original article is clickbaity. ~ 5yr in i'm surprised how the article pushes the risk of extreme rain/wind events out of the summer months to the bottom of the article

A more accurate and truthful prediction is that Vancouver will become more like Portland Oregon. That means more frequent heatwaves in the summer, more dramatic contrast between the wet and dry season, overall a milder winter but one that is still susceptible to harsh arctic blasts.

Yeah, portland and vancouver seem to be in the same boat

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by mezzanine;9499049[URL="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/portland-heat-wave-2021-1190804/"

portland and vancouver seem to be in the same boat[/URL]

Portland's winter average temperature is only 1 degree higher than Vancouver's. The report says Vancouver's winter temperatures are likely to be 2.4 degrees warmer in 2050 and 4.4 higher by 2080. The summer temperature is five degrees warmer, and Vancouver is expected to be 3.7 degrees warmer in 2050 and around 6 degrees warmer in 2080 at 27 degrees, which is already Portland's average in July and August. So if the model is correct, we'll be warmer than Portland is currently in winter quite soon, but it could be many decades before our summer average is as hot as theirs.

(Maybe that's why the report editors compared us to San Diego - on average it's actually not all that hot in summer, compared to Portland or even Seattle).

Assuming we experience the anticipated higher temperatures here, we won't actually be close to Portland's temperatures by then. Their climate change model now expects "If greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, temperature in Oregon is projected to increase on average by 5°F by the 2050s and 8.2°F by the 2080s, with the greatest seasonal increases in summer." [source]

[mezzanine]

LOL, I guess i'm more bummed that people aren't taking climate change earnestly and instead arguing about weather patterns in vancouver vs san diego

The original article sees both prescient and somewhat naive at the same time, but at least the GVRD had started to look at the problem. Too bad that news was lost with a awkward headline and lede

I'm sure we will get to see how hot temperatures pan out with future summers. and even tomorrow

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by jhausner

Cheaper to patch things up than completely re-engineer a large portion of the sea wall.

Originally Posted by djh

The best suggestion (in this simplified lab example) was to pile netted rocks in the path of the tidal surges, as they are incredibly effective at absorbing the energy and dispersing it.

It may be cheaper to "patch things up" but if these storms become a regular occurrence re-building the wall to higher standards will be much cheaper than repeatedly applying patches.

Yes, there are very simple solutions to these problems. It just requires the foresight and financial commitment to adopt them.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

It may be cheaper to "patch things up" but if these storms become a regular occurrence re-building the wall to higher standards will be much cheaper than repeatedly applying patches.

Yes, there are very simple solutions to these problems. It just requires the foresight and financial commitment to adopt them.

Vancouver crews work to shore up shoreline ahead of king tide on Monday

Staff with Vancouver’s park board are working to shore up the city’s shoreline ahead of another king tide, expected Monday.

The Stanley Park seawall, areas near Kits Pool and the Jericho Pier suffered significant damage earlier this month when a king tide arrived at the same time as a powerful windstorm.

In a Twitter update Friday the Vancouver Park Board said there was a high volume of debris in the water and on shorelines due to recent storms, which could potentially smash into the seawall, causing more damage.

Crews were working to remove as much debris as possible ahead of Monday and making temporary reinforcements to vulnerable parts of the seawall, according to the park board.

After the king tide, work will begin on long-term repairs to damaged areas of the popular promenade, large parts of which remain closed to the public.

...

[Sheba]

The 434 in Metro Vancouver who died in heat dome mostly elderly, poor, isolated, female

The number of deaths in Metro Vancouver blamed on last summer’s heat dome, when temperatures soared to over 35 degrees for six days, was 440 per cent higher than the usual number of weather deaths in an average summer, according to a study.

...

The study found those “materially and socially deprived” made up 28.1 per cent of the heat dome deaths, double that of typical weather deaths in other years, and 6.2 per cent of the heat dome deaths were in the “materially and socially privileged” groups, about half the proportion of typical weather deaths.

And researchers said while more research is necessary, the study indicates that the number of deaths was highest in areas where residences had little “greenness” within 100 metres of their buildings and weren’t close to major roads and large bodies of water.

They said proximity to “urban heat islands” with little trees or parkland were “associated with increased risks.”

“That’s kind of interesting because it is another kind of thing you can do in the future to reduce the risk (for vulnerable residents),” said Brauer, meaning planting more trees, not cutting down as many trees and incorporating vegetation in design of neighbourhoods and buildings.

“Increasing local green space in neighbourhoods with little air conditioning may help to save lives during hot weather,” said the report.

...

[GMD]

It's funny, this thread started over 5 years ago, and all the reactions at the time were about how unreasonably apocalyptic the starting article was.

But 5+ years later, it seems like things are going along about as predicted. Soaring A/C use, increasing wildfires, etc.

Certainly, this past summer is the closest I can ever remember B.C. getting to a Southern California type climate.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by GMD

It's funny, this thread started over 5 years ago, and all the reactions at the time were about how unreasonably apocalyptic the starting article was.

But 5+ years later, it seems like things are going along about as predicted. Soaring A/C use, increasing wildfires, etc.

Certainly, this past summer is the closest I can ever remember B.C. getting to a Southern California type climate.

Don't take your victory lap until Year 50.

[Migrant_Coconut]

We're also Bangladesh in spring and fall, and Minnesota in winter. So it's more of a mixed bag.

[Repthe250]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

We're also Bangladesh in spring and fall, and Minnesota in winter. So it's more of a mixed bag.

While I know you’re joking, those are two extremes that Vancouver (I hope) will never experience

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Repthe250

While I know you’re joking, those are two extremes that Vancouver (I hope) will never experience

I may be exaggerating, but just take the last twelve months: massive floods (and a small tornado) in fall, blizzards in winter, and then more floods (and even hail) in spring. That's not SoCal weather.

[mezzanine]

5 years on


Beyond reasonable drought: BC has been drier than the Mojave Desert

[svlt]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

5 years on


Beyond reasonable drought: BC has been drier than the Mojave Desert

I keep thinking rain is just around the corner and yet all the reasonably accurate long range forecasts (within 7 days) shows no sign of it...

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by svlt

I keep thinking rain is just around the corner and yet all the reasonably accurate long range forecasts (within 7 days) shows no sign of it...

I just got back from three weeks away and I was shocked at how brown the grass is. I was looking forward to some green after travelling to LA but we're as brown as the southwest!

[jollyburger]

It'll be interesting to see how many trees fall during the first windstorm.

Stanley Park’s trees pushed to the brink by drought, moths
Large numbers of browning trees appear dead or dying, because of a one-two combination of foliage-munching grubs and an exceptionally dry weather spell

Experts say large numbers of browning trees appear dead or dying, because of a one-two combination of foliage-munching grubs and an exceptionally dry weather spell, with the last appreciable rain falling in Vancouver on Sept. 4.

City of Vancouver arborist Joe McLeod said trees already stressed by infestations of western hemlock looper moth larva have been further pushed toward breaking point by the prolonged summer-like conditions.

“Much like humans, the more stressed we are, the more susceptible we are to getting colds and other conditions,” said McLeod.

“Unfortunately, I think the fact that there is an insect outbreak that is happening and the fact that we have very extreme heat and then extreme cold — it’s definitely lending itself to a worse situation than previous years.”

Article content
Such “multiple layers of stress” added up to a higher likelihood of tree mortality, said McLeod.

Dead trees could be seen in the park’s Prospect Point area, as well as facing Coal Harbour, English Bay and the northern edge of the park, said McLeod.

Richard Hamelin, the department head of forest conservation sciences at the University of British Columbia, agreed that it’s not just the ongoing problem of the looper moths that is killing trees.

“The heat and the drought are like additional stress that affects those trees,” said Hamelin.

“If it were just for the insect, maybe the trees would recover,” said Hamelin, who has been monitoring the health of trees throughout the park over the last four years.

McLeod, acting manager of urban forestry, fleet and strategic planning at the Vancouver park board, said the moth outbreak is in its fourth year.

Article content
The moth’s larval grubs mostly target western hemlocks, but will jump to Douglas fir and other species when the hemlocks are consumed.

The moth outbreaks are cyclical, and typically last one to three years.

The impact of the grubs has made trees particularly susceptible to the drought, Hamelin said, because the lack of foliage and buds is making it difficult for trees to store water and recover next year.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-...-drought-moths

[mezzanine]

6 and a half years

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...2023-1.6938796

"This weather event has the potential to be the most challenging 24 to 48 hours of the summer from a fire perspective, " said Cliff Chapman, director of wildfire operations for the B.C. Wildfire Service (BCWS).

"We are expecting significant growth and we are expecting our resources to be challenged from north to south of the province over the next 48 hours."

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

6 and a half years

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...2023-1.6938796

The first page of this thread is a real read, how people are downplaying forest fires and even stating forest fires weren't big enough back then. I wonder how they feel now, if forest fires should be even bigger than they are now.