Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziobrop
I skim read the report. basically why spend 62million on startup costs when you can just buy more buses..
Completely ignores the fact that rail is a separate ROW. I challenge you to build a dedicated bus row for that price. (IIRC Ottawa's Bus Transitway is around 13million a KM)
That changes the economics alot.
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I agree. A key fact here is that adding more buses along the Bedford Highway will do little or nothing to improve transit in the future, and creating a dedicated ROW for buses would be difficult. The ferry has also been ruled out. There do not seem to be many alternatives.
I am not surprised at the hugely negative spin but a lot of it is uninformed. Basically, people have been skimming the report and picking out worst-case scenarios.
Some things to consider:
- This didn't include transit-oriented development or any changes to the regional plan that would happen if commuter rail were constructed. And there would be changes, because HRM council is currently throttling back development in Bedford due to the lack of road and transit capacity. Increasing development and the population in the catchment area has an enormous impact on feasibility because it means more taxes for the city than would otherwise be possible and more riders to support the train.
- A huge portion of the cost was transit access fees to CN. These were estimates and they could be brought down. For example, terminating at Bedford Common would cut off $29M from operating expenses according to their estimates. That's about 20% of the operating cost.
- The downtown extension looks much better than I thought it would. Their estimate is $25M for this and they give an example in Canada where such a system already exists.
The cost-benefit ratio in the cover letter for the report didn't include any of these changes, which are "optimizations" under chapter 14. The benefits of the unoptimized scenario are supposedly 70% of the costs, but this shifts to about 90% with some of their optimizations not counting TOD. This suggests to me that the project is actually pretty good.
I think there's a subtle bias here in the sense that when a project does have a quantifiable benefit (e.g. travel time saved) that gets weighed against the cost and if the result is negative we say the project is not worthwhile, ignoring any other benefits. Meanwhile, other projects without such quantifiable benefits (public attractions, sports infrastructure, and so on) tend to be judged by a different bar.