YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

24? I say bring on 25 million.

Get to construction on the darn International Terminal expansion and US Terminal!!

They still haven't used gate D60 and E85 yet, and D48 doesn't really get that much use either

D59 is being used every day since mid-June, and there seems to be about 5 international / us arrival using D49, though...

[Hot Rod]

24.4m, 25m not too much difference.

I think it can be done, more busy in the slow winter alone could. Also, didn't we beat 22m last year? (Didn't we come in at 23m?).

With the additions and expansions, I'm sticking with 25m.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

24.4m, 25m not too much difference.

I think it can be done, more busy in the slow winter alone could. Also, didn't we beat 22m last year? (Didn't we come in at 23m?).

With the additions and expansions, I'm sticking with 25m.

2016 saw 22.3 million passengers.

I think growth at YYZ, YUL and YVR will slow down in the next few years. Air Canada's international expansion phase is almost complete with the majority of the dreamliners delivered. Chinese carrriers can no longer expand service in Canada, and that will impact YVR the most.

Total widebody fleet at both AC and Rouge will only increase by 3 (from 95 to 98) between 2017 and 2018. The 10 B767s still at mainline today will dwindle down to 5 in 2018, and will disappear entirely in the early years of the next decade.

Next comes the delivery of the MAX, the retirement of the older A320's and the delivery of the CSeries in 2019 to replace the E190s and A319s. AC has 51 aircraft with the leases that expire in the next 3 years. They could keep those leases for an expansion, just like then can get rid of them with the delivery of new metal, keeping overall expansion to a minimum. It is not yet clear what AC will do.

Either way, I think overall Y.O.Y increases of nearly 10% for the Canadian big 3 is over after this year.

[casper]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

2016 saw 22.3 million passengers.

I think growth at YYZ, YUL and YVR will slow down in the next few years. Air Canada's international expansion phase is almost complete with the majority of the dreamliners delivered. Chinese carrriers can no longer expand service in Canada, and that will impact YVR the most.

Total widebody fleet at both AC and Rouge will only increase by 3 (from 95 to 98) between 2017 and 2018. The 10 B767s still at mainline today will dwindle down to 5 in 2018, and will disappear entirely in the early years of the next decade.

Next comes the delivery of the MAX, the retirement of the older A320's and the delivery of the CSeries in 2019 to replace the E190s and A319s.

The other factor that has added quite a bit to the numbers has been Air Canada switching the 777 fleet from 9 across to 10 across. Without adding a single aircraft that has been a fair increase in the number of seats available on any given route. I don't think they can find a way of stuffing more people in the same aircraft they way they have done over the past two years.

Hopfully AC exercises some of the option they have on more 787.

[Gordon]

The 2 D\E swing gates are rarely being used for international flights & gates E90-92 are getting lot of use including some main line flights So E 85 has not been needed as of yet .

I wonder why Alaska always ground loads when regular gates are available throughout most of the year?

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

24.4m, 25m not too much difference.

I think it can be done, more busy in the slow winter alone could. Also, didn't we beat 22m last year? (Didn't we come in at 23m?).

With the additions and expansions, I'm sticking with 25m.

25 million would require growth of over 12% this year. Given that half way through the year we have seen growth of 8.4% to date that would mean the rest of the year would need to see growth of over 15.5% every month. That's not going to happen.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I think growth at YYZ, YUL and YVR will slow down in the next few years. Air Canada's international expansion phase is almost complete with the majority of the dreamliners delivered. Chinese carrriers can no longer expand service in Canada, and that will impact YVR the most.

I think AC will end up exercising their options for more dreamliners. Their growth seems to have been well received and with oil showing no signs of a meaningful increase they should be able to continue their growth playing at the lower end of the margins.

Growth will slow in the next year or two as there is a gap in deliveries but I think it will pick back up again.

Also, the Chinese bilateral will be renegotiated, its just a question of when. We may see a scenario where ACs growth slows, Chinese growth picks up, then AC growth picks up after that resulting in a very short slowdown period.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Next comes the delivery of the MAX, the retirement of the older A320's and the delivery of the CSeries in 2019 to replace the E190s and A319s. AC has 51 aircraft with the leases that expire in the next 3 years. They could keep those leases for an expansion, just like then can get rid of them with the delivery of new metal, keeping overall expansion to a minimum. It is not yet clear what AC will do.

The new Boeing and Cseries' are replacing generally slightly smaller aircraft on average so we should still see some growth here as frames are being increased even if leases are not renewed. Cseries should really be a hit in YVR too, good for a lot of the transcons that are just a little too long and thin for a 320.

[LeftCoaster]

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2017/june/june-2017_traffic_update.pdf?la=en

Relatively poor numbers for YVR this month. Looks like a lot of added capacity is not being absorbed.

Asia seats for example are up around 17-20% but pax are only up 11.8%. Loads seem to be down.

Europe/London on the other hand is up 4% in seats and 4% in PAX so loads seem stable which is good.

Highlights:

Overall up 9.1% to 1,996,395

Domestic up 4.3% to 1,027,813
Ttl Int'l up 10.7% to 1,121,227

International breakdown:
Transborder up 11.8%
Asia Pacific up 11.8%
Europe up 4.8%
Misc Int'l up 19.4%

This drops 2017 year to date growth to 8.4%

[osirisboy]

June is actually 2,149,040. Not 1,996,395, I think that's mays number

[CareerShow]

Anyone have any idea if AC and United are ending codeshare on YVR to Denver?

[nname]

Air New Zealand expands Vancouver service to 8x weekly during winter (for 2 weeks) and up to daily next summer. New flight on Saturday:

NZ020 AKL1645 – 0850YVR 772 6
NZ021 YVR2100 – 0800+2AKL 772 6


http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airl...expands-vancouver-service-from-jan-2018/

[Lancaster]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2017/june/june-2017_traffic_update.pdf?la=en

Relatively poor numbers for YVR this month. Looks like a lot of added capacity is not being absorbed.

LOL I mean didn't YVR add Phoenix, Denver (double daily), Nagoya, Frankfurt, Taipei, LGW, Boston, and Hong Kong all inside eight weeks? That's a boat load of new services with barely any time to absorb. I'd be concerned if the trend continues over the next 3-6 months as those new routes start to mature.

Still good to see double digit growth in some sectors!

[thenoflyzone]

China Eastern reduces PVG-YVR from 11x to 9x weekly this winter for about 7 weeks. They are also reducing ORD, HNL and JFK. Sign of over capacity in winter from China to North America.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airl...stern-w17-north-america-service-changes/

[LeftCoaster]

I think those are typical seasonal reductions?

Will be interesting if they keep a 777 on it at all during the winter. MU 77W summer service started 2 days ago and it's a sharp look.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by nname

Air New Zealand expands Vancouver service to 8x weekly during winter (for 2 weeks) and up to daily next summer. New flight on Saturday:

NZ020 AKL1645 – 0850YVR 772 6
NZ021 YVR2100 – 0800+2AKL 772 6


http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airl...expands-vancouver-service-from-jan-2018/

Word on A.net is that this route is going 787-9 daily year round soon. Would be a nice boost.

I still wish NZ would move their AKL-LAX-LHR to AKL-YVR-LHR. Would be a much better visa wise for most kiwis and help them grow their YVR ops.

[Canadian74]

Their 789 has less seats than the 772, but if it means the route will be daily year round then that's a fair deal

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I think those are typical seasonal reductions?

Will be interesting if they keep a 777 on it at all during the winter. MU 77W summer service started 2 days ago and it's a sharp look.

Overall service reduces to 12 weekly from 14 per week for that short period as YVR-NKG-KMG remains 3 weekly year-round

[LeftCoaster]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BXWZkehhDMj/?hl=en&taken-by=yvrairport

YVR's twitter saying that the total NZ increases will be about 20% given that a frequency is being added to nearly every period. Pretty solid!

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Overall service reduces to 12 weekly from 14 per week for that short period as YVR-NKG-KMG remains 3 weekly year-round

And that's the same reduction as last winter correct?

[Hot Rod]

My bad all, I thought we hit 23m in 2016 and that the 8+%
growth that we've been seeing so far would surely bring us to 25m.


Anyway, 24m+ is still very nice.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

25 million would require growth of over 12% this year. Given that half way through the year we have seen growth of 8.4% to date that would mean the rest of the year would need to see growth of over 15.5% every month. That's not going to happen.



I think AC will end up exercising their options for more dreamliners. Their growth seems to have been well received and with oil showing no signs of a meaningful increase they should be able to continue their growth playing at the lower end of the margins.

Growth will slow in the next year or two as there is a gap in deliveries but I think it will pick back up again.

Also, the Chinese bilateral will be renegotiated, its just a question of when. We may see a scenario where ACs growth slows, Chinese growth picks up, then AC growth picks up after that resulting in a very short slowdown period.



The new Boeing and Cseries' are replacing generally slightly smaller aircraft on average so we should still see some growth here as frames are being increased even if leases are not renewed. Cseries should really be a hit in YVR too, good for a lot of the transcons that are just a little too long and thin for a 320.

[stiffdeadman]

Perhaps something that may have a minor affect on YVR, if it's even marketed up here. United has announced that they will be joining Alaska in offering flights out of Paine Field. They will offer a total of 6 flights per day from Everett to Denver and San Francisco. No break down was given how the 6 will be divided. So with Alaska's 9 flights, that's already a total of 15 per day. With 2 gates the terminal is almost at capacity before opening.

This could be an option for people like myself who live very close to the border and have Nexus. Takes me an hour and 10 minutes to get to Everett. Approx an hour to get to YVR depending on how jammed the tunnel is. And no doubt the flights in Everett will be cheaper, as everything is more expensive in Canada. Not to mention parking is guaranteed to be cheaper and just the overall time saved departing from a small airport could be very enticing.

[mezzanine]

^i dunno if PAE would make a significant impact on YVR, even with the united flights. the past ~ 6 years show the ups and downs of BLI chasing price-sensitive canadian travellers. Some routes within the USA from SEA/BLI will always be cheaper versus YVR, especially on american LCCs but YVR is surprisingly competitive against some US destinations..

IMO it will put pressure on YVR if the CAD is really good but will otherwise make minimal difference, esp if PAE continues to have gate/infrastructure constraints.




from twoNeurons