CHICAGO | Lincoln Yards

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by ardecila

By the time JDL gets done re-negotiating the RDA, hopefully the investment climate is better. Sterling Bay exhausted their patience with the investors, but JDL should probably enjoy a few years of goodwill. Even if the climate is still "bad", JDL could front-load some big SFH/McMansions or townhouses to show some forward progress, maybe on the north end of the site along Dickens/McLean where the streets already exist. Easier to finance, easier to sell. These could be paired with a small midrise elevator building for some affordable units as well.

I certainly think we'll see a lot less infrastructure than before, the Dominick bridge is probably dead unless they resurrect it as a pedestrian-only bridge which is much cheaper.

IIRC, I read something saying the bridge is out. Hopefully, the developments would at least be able to accommodate it at a later time. Lack of river crossings and inadequate bridges is a real choke point for Chicago traffic, particulary with these large old industrial tracts

[left of center]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

IIRC, I read something saying the bridge is out. Hopefully, the developments would at least be able to accommodate it at a later time. Lack of river crossings and inadequate bridges is a real choke point for Chicago traffic, particulary with these large old industrial tracts

My fear is once the development is up and people have moved in, no one will want a bridge and the traffic that comes with it to be right next to them, especially one that replaces a quiet dead end street/cul-de-sac that terminates at the riverwalk. Any transportation infrastructure like bridges or rail/BRT needs to go in before the NIMBYs move in. So if its not happening now, its likely not happening at all.

[Chicago Shawn]

The lack of at least a pedestrian bridge at Throop Street and/or at the 606 alignment makes this site plan absolutely abysmal. The city needs to demand better and encourage the density to support it. Honestly, it will be better to let this site sit for 1.5 more years until we have some better leadership that actually cares about promoting better business development and collaborates with developers to make a grander plan possible. Even little Portland would say that is a non-starter.

With a lack of city support, including Ald. Anti-density Waugespack now overseeing the entire swath of property, all we will get is a half-assed concept that wouldn't even fly in another global city of half of our size and stature.

Really? SFH on the goddamn riverfront totally unengaged from a riverwalk and directly beside a major office use? Come on.

Look at what is happening in the outer boroughs of London on canal frontages, or in the suburban areas of Toronto, or the waterfronts of Brooklyn and Queens, or in Singapore, or in suburban Sydney or Melbourne or the ambition within a slew of Chinese cities and then tell me this site plan is not a pathetic joke.

We should demand better. This is a generational long build out plan, we don't need the market to be preforming better to make it work now. Lake shore East has been going for 2.5 decades now, and this site is about the same size.

[sentinel]

Also, this is all related to only the north half of the site…the entire southern portion of the site is not part of the deal, and may yet be developed in the future to have more mid and high rise buildings, including office towers.

[r18tdi]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Also, this is all related to only the north half of the site…the entire southern portion of the site is not part of the deal, and may yet be developed in the future to have more mid and high rise buildings, including office towers.

The 100 percent vacant commercial building SB built at LY South begs to differ, but I like your optimism.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by r18tdi

The 100 percent vacant commercial building SB built at LY South begs to differ, but I like your optimism.

Yer funny, but I also don’t disagree with you. I also think it kind of stands out right now, which actually works against it, especially when there is no other development in the immediate vicinity.
It’s a real shame that such a nice, new office building is sitting vacant, but it’s all about location. And until the area fills up more, I don’t know what the answer is…

[twister244]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Also, this is all related to only the north half of the site…the entire southern portion of the site is not part of the deal, and may yet be developed in the future to have more mid and high rise buildings, including office towers.

I'm more pessimistic about any office space going there anytime soon. Even if we're talking new class A - Why would a developer put class A there, when the West Loop would be a much more desirable location? Even if they wanted to put office space there, maybe one tower at best in this market. Office vacancies continue to hit new highs in the city.

Best case is JDL gets going on the Northern half, then eventually buys up the remaining land on the Southern half to implement a similar plan.

[nomarandlee]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm more pessimistic about any office space going there anytime soon. Even if we're talking new class A - Why would a developer put class A there, when the West Loop would be a much more desirable location? Even if they wanted to put office space there, maybe one tower at best in this market. Office vacancies continue to hit new highs in the city.

Best case is JDL gets going on the Northern half, then eventually buys up the remaining land on the Southern half to implement a similar plan.

I could see the appeal of putting office space directly next to the new Clyborn Station. Perhaps even with skywalks leading into the offices? That is a potential savings of ten minutes for suburbanites on the UP lines, not an unsubstantial amount.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by nomarandlee

I could see the appeal of putting office space directly next to the new Clyborn Station. Perhaps even with skywalks leading into the offices? That is a potential savings of ten minutes for suburbanites on the UP lines, not an unsubstantial amount.

Yeah, I get that, but Ogilvie isn't that far from the West Loop itself..... I'm just saying - If I were a developer looking to shore up enough demand for a small class A office building, LY would not be at the top of my list.

[sentinel]

Sterling Bay’s hubris got the best of them; they should have partnered with 2-3 other developers, I think that’ was their Achilles heel, that they assumed they could take on this entire site on their own, even if it was planned in multiple phases.
Their local track record was impressive up to this point, but pales compared to other local and national developers that have taken on comparably large sites like this.

[r18tdi]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Sterling Bay’s hubris got the best of them.

Yeah. That was basically my takeaway from the Sun-Times piece from a couple of weeks ago.

Sounds like SB was riding high on their success in Fulton Market and thought they could do no wrong. They bet big on building a "second Loop" of Class A office space (in place it really had no business going), gambled on a Chicago life science resurgence that didn't happen, spent millions on non TIF-eligible environmental remiation, got caught out by the pandemic, and then realized they were unable to raise the billions in capital needed for infrastructure work to get reimbursed by TIF — per the terms of the agreement they had pushed so aggressively for.

And finally blamed Lightfoot for good measure.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by r18tdi

Yeah. That was basically my takeaway from the Sun-Times piece from a couple of weeks ago.

Sounds like SB was riding high on their success in Fulton Market and thought they could do no wrong. They bet big on building a "second Loop" of Class A office space (in place it really had no business going), gambled on a Chicago life science resurgence that didn't happen, spent millions on non TIF-eligible environmental remiation, got caught out by the pandemic, and then realized they were unable to raise the billions in capital needed for infrastructure work to get reimbursed by TIF — per the terms of the agreement they had pushed so aggressively for.

And finally blamed Lightfoot for good measure.

So wild...and so so stupid.

[ardecila]

At this point I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the south parcel ends up as a Topgolf or something similar. Drive Shack was set to open at Damen/Elston until Covid killed the deal, but surely there's still demand for this esp. on the North Side.

Without better infrastructure, the river corridor is only well-suited for industry, low density housing or recreational/entertainment uses. I was also reading about Cosm which is popping up in other cities esp as an anchor to this kind of mixed use development. LY seems like a possible location for them if Related doesn't snag them first for The 78.

[aaron38]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Without better infrastructure, the river corridor is only well-suited for industry, low density housing or recreational/entertainment uses.

Infrastructure? From the middle of the site it's a 10 minute walk to Metra, 10 minutes to the El. There's a bus on Clybourn. What does "better" mean?

[twister244]

Originally Posted by aaron38

Infrastructure? From the middle of the site it's a 10 minute walk to Metra, 10 minutes to the El. There's a bus on Clybourn. What does "better" mean?

I just recently biked from Logan Square over to North Ave Beach via 606, and I will say.... It wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. If the city can just extend the 606 under the Kennedy, and whip up some protected bike lanes from the 606 to Cortland and across to Armitage - You're pretty set. Not saying it's the ideal setup, but it we have to plan on limited resources....... It could be worse.

[twister244]

In news that shows just how much of a failed vision the original plan was.... Sterling Bay is offloading the one building they managed to get off the ground.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commerci...sletter-breaking-news-20250818&utm_term=

There isn't anything crazy to cite from the article, except that this building is completely empty. Pretty depressing, but it makes me even more happy to see there are residential plans to get this thing filled in.

[dreamy-developer]

this building is completely empty.

I'm still amazed to this day that SB didn't get a single tenant signed in this building before it was built. I guess they were just that confident in the long-term outlook of the plan.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by aaron38

Infrastructure? From the middle of the site it's a 10 minute walk to Metra, 10 minutes to the El. There's a bus on Clybourn. What does "better" mean?

There is NOT a bus on Clybourn, or Elston for that matter. There is a bus on Armitage and Ashland, but neither of those buses goes downtown and the area is gridlocked for most of the day. You can tell people to suck it up and take the bus, but they're still sitting in the same traffic jams.

Metra is acceptable transit service during rush hours, but you can't rely on it during other times (trains every 2 hours on the weekend??) which means all those new residents will still be driving heavily and making the traffic jams even worse. The L is about 1/2 mile away/15 minute walk, which is doable but it's on the extreme edge of what people will walk comfortably. So it's fine for low density housing, but not where you want to put a new, very dense neighborhood.

Originally Posted by Chicago Shawn

The lack of at least a pedestrian bridge at Throop Street and/or at the 606 alignment makes this site plan absolutely abysmal. The city needs to demand better and encourage the density to support. Honestly, it will be better to let this site sit for 3.5 more years until we have some better leadership that actually cares about promoting better business development and collaborates with developers to make a grander plan possible. Even little Portland would say that is a non-starter.

With a lack of city support, including Ald. Anti-density Waugespack now overseeing the entire swath of property, all we will get is a half-assed concept that wouldn't even fly in another global city of half of our size and stature.

Really? SFH on the goddamn riverfront totally unengaged from a riverwalk and directly beside a major office use? Come on.

Look at what is happening in the outer boroughs of London on canal frontages, or in the suburban areas of Toronto, or the waterfronts of Brooklyn and Queens, or in Singapore, or in suburban Sydney or Melbourne or the ambition within a slew of Chinese cities and then tell me this site plan is not a pathetic joke.

We should demand better. This is a generational long build out plan, we don't need the market to be preforming better to make it work now. Lake shore East has been going for 2.5 decades now, and this site is about the same size.

OK, I also want something better for the site but the city's growth rate is pretty anemic. I just don't think we have the consistent, sustained high demand that those other cities have, which means it's very difficult to finance a project of that magnitude especially in a B-minus location.

I think this plan is more realistic for the private sector to finance and build, if the city wants infrastructure they'll have to pony up (which they won't do of course). If they were wise they would keep the same TIF structure that LY had, but transfer the risk of designing and building infrastructure to CDOT. Maybe keep the bridges in the plan so new residents have plenty of warning, but they don't need to be built in the first 4-5 years of what will likely be a 10-15 year buildout. Foundry Park is downscaled so it will throw off less revenue, that means the infrastructure would need to be pared down as well but I would hope to still see some pedestrian bridges.

[Chicago Shawn]

Originally Posted by ardecila

There is NOT a bus on Clybourn, or Elston for that matter. There is a bus on Armitage and Ashland, but neither of those buses goes downtown and the area is gridlocked for most of the day. You can tell people to suck it up and take the bus, but they're still sitting in the same traffic jams.

Metra is acceptable transit service during rush hours, but you can't rely on it during other times (trains every 2 hours on the weekend??) which means all those new residents will still be driving heavily and making the traffic jams even worse. The L is about 1/2 mile away/15 minute walk, which is doable but it's on the extreme edge of what people will walk comfortably. So it's fine for low density housing, but not where you want to put a new, very dense neighborhood.


OK, I also want something better for the site but the city's growth rate is pretty anemic. I just don't think we have the consistent, sustained high demand that those other cities have, which means it's very difficult to finance a project of that magnitude especially in a B-minus location.

I think this plan is more realistic for the private sector to finance and build, if the city wants infrastructure they'll have to pony up (which they won't do of course). If they were wise they would keep the same TIF structure that LY had, but transfer the risk of designing and building infrastructure to CDOT. Maybe keep the bridges in the plan so new residents have plenty of warning, but they don't need to be built in the first 4-5 years of what will likely be a 10-15 year buildout. Foundry Park is downscaled so it will throw off less revenue, that means the infrastructure would need to be pared down as well but I would hope to still see some pedestrian bridges.

This is not a B minus location. While overall city growth is anemic, specific neighborhoods, including the two this site is sandwiched between, continue to get plenty of investment for small and midsize projects. There is no doubt had this started a couple years earlier, more buildings, at least residential, would have been realized. Rham was on the way out when this was approved with his administration's support, and as was widely reported, Lori's admin put the breaks on the infrastructure development, but the design work for it all was quite advanced and ready to go. I know a civil engineer personally who did a lot of that civil design work. The pandemic and the imposed delays caused them to miss the market, but the market will eventually return. This is not a singular market project, it will be delivered over many years to come, that is why we should be more ambitious in the overall site planning and then individual subareas within it can develop as the conditions permit to make them feasible. Perhaps additional TIF funding to provide gap financing could be made available, would certainly be a far more efficient use of city funds for creating say 20-30% onsite affordable housing than squandering $800-900K+ per unit that we are currently doing with the $1.5 billion we just borrowed at high interest rates and are handing it to inexperienced nonprofits acting as larger scale developers.

Metra's service can always get better. They are taking over dispatching on both of the UPN and UPNW. Funds can be made available to buy battery electrics to provide additional service for city and inner suburban stations as we are doing with the Rock Island. The state will eventually pass a transit bill that could make such funds available. This collaborative thinking is why Canada is producing so much more high-density development compared to what we are doing locally, it is a process that has full engagement of local, provincial and national support and that is what we are missing here. Thus, we get meager plans in a place we once boasted about making "no little plans"

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Chicago Shawn

Thus, we get meager plans in a place we once boasted about making "no little plans"

There were big plans made for this site, that’s why we had a TIF. Unfortunately, sometimes big plans blow up, in this case the developer ran into financial problems. Big plans can leave big holes in ground, just look at the Spire site that was a big plan for an iconic skyscraper. Now it will be a good skyscraper.