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  #1141  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 7:19 AM
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[QUOTE=NativeAtlantan;3503878]So, let me see if I read this article correctly...based on this could I conclude that they believe intown growth is driven somewhat by rising oil prices?

Hmm, not sure...maybe that's a false conclusion....
QUOTE]


I think the main point is actually that intown growth is being driven by the Return on Investment you can expect on your home purchase. That intown homes, even in a down market, hold or even gain in value. While far-flung surburban homes are no longer a good investment.

The big draw for suburban homes over intown housing was always "well yeah, I might have to commute a bit more, but look how much more house I can get." So a number of things come together here, 1) how much house do you really need? - death to the MacMansions; and as the article says 2) the underestimation of just how much a commute costs, not just in auto wear and tear, and especially now with gas, but just in losing that extra 30-45 min a day sitting in your car.
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  #1142  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 7:50 AM
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Atlanta is already a decentralized city when it comes to major employment centers and business districts. While higher gas prices provide a relative benefit to areas in-town, the inner ring of suburbs near major employment centers such as Cumberland and Perimeter hold great potential for the same reasons... a shorter commute. I'd be betting on a place like Smyrna over Canton.
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  #1143  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 2:31 PM
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Another benefit people may consider to moving intown is that it opens up more options of places you could possibly work. Buckhead may be more attractive than a place like Smyrna because if you live there, jobs in Cumberland, Perimeter, Norcross, Buckhead, Midtown, Downtown, Airport, etc. would be more accessible than if you live in Smyrna. Also, for people who have clients spread throughout the metro, intown may make more sense for them. That's actually part of the reason I moved to midtown was because it opens up more options. The days of staying with one company are over.
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  #1144  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 5:56 PM
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I totally agree with robmidtowner!!!! I mean there are more options available!!!


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  #1145  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 8:13 PM
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I already stated the notion of opening doors to other employment....I will take all credit for making that point first....thanks. ;-)

And, Chris, I know what the point of the article was, but it was also useful to use as ammo in my ridiculous debate with Andrea. Her hypothesis is that net in-migration into the City is not correlated to rising gas prices. Obviously, I disagree with her and believe that higher gas prices WILL in fact drive more people to buy in the city, all else being equal. I don't disagree with her that more people will choose to live closer to where they work, but a basic analysis will show that the net result of all that shifting around will be more people in the city - again, all else being equal.

Do any of you understand what I am doing here? I feel like I am all alone on a battlefield. I just can't sit idly by and watch Andrea make such comments. She's just trying to make herself feel better for considering a move out to the burbs and wants us all to give her a warm and fuzzy about it and tell her how she should move out of the city.
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  #1146  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 8:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan View Post
I already stated the notion of opening doors to other employment....I will take all credit for making that point first....thanks. ;-)

And, Chris, I know what the point of the article was, but it was also useful to use as ammo in my ridiculous debate with Andrea. Her hypothesis is that net in-migration into the City is not correlated to rising gas prices. Obviously, I disagree with her and believe that higher gas prices WILL in fact drive more people to buy in the city, all else being equal. I don't disagree with her that more people will choose to live closer to where they work, but a basic analysis will show that the net result of all that shifting around will be more people in the city - again, all else being equal.

Do any of you understand what I am doing here? I feel like I am all alone on a battlefield. I just can't sit idly by and watch Andrea make such comments. She's just trying to make herself feel better for considering a move out to the burbs and wants us all to give her a warm and fuzzy about it and tell her how she should move out of the city.

Well I agree with you!

I work downtown, I got tired of traffic first, and then gas prices was just icing on the cake. I know live .6 miles from work, and it's a 12 minutes walk. I even walk home for lunch sometimes. I save money on gas, and wear and tear on my car. For ME, it was the greatest decision I've ever made. I get gas once every 3 months!

I thought Andrea's argument was that there were lots of jobs outside of downtown/midtown so that would spur people to want to live closer to their jobs and thus move out of the city. However if you work outside of the city I think you already live in the burbs. I have no stats to back me up, just going by what I've seen myself through friends working outside the city.

Also work isn't the only reason to live in the city, there are fun things to do here. I can walk to restaurants/bars and parks, if I lived in the burbs i would be miserable.
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  #1147  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 8:49 PM
sprtsluvr8 sprtsluvr8 is offline
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The rising price of gas is surely one reason that people are moving into the city - probably the biggest reason. There are 140,000 employees that flood Downtown every day...not to mention Midtown and other intown areas, and we all know that a large number of those commute from the suburbs. High gas prices will undoubtedly cause lots of suburbanites to decide that move into the city is a good idea.

Last edited by sprtsluvr8; Apr 24, 2008 at 2:20 AM.
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  #1148  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2008, 10:36 PM
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Well, you have to bear in mind that around 60% of those people (and I don't know where the 150,000 figure comes from) already live in the city of Atlanta.

Even so, that's not really a huge concentration in the context of the 2 million plus jobs in the 10 core counties. Most job growth is occurring in the northern suburbs. The highest paying jobs also tend to be clustered along the 400 corridor in north Fulton, south Forsyth and in Gwinnett along I-85.

What that means for Atlanta is simply this. To the extent that rising gas prices influence commuting patterns and the choice of living locations, there will be a very substantial pull toward the suburbs. That’s where the vast majority of people work, live, shop, worship and go to school.

That’s not to say there aren’t plenty of reasons for people to move back into the city limits of Atlanta. As I’ve said several times I think that will clearly be the case. I’m simply taking issue with the current mantra that “Rising gas prices will drive people back to the city.” For some folks that may be a factor. But since most employment and other activity in metro Atlanta is outside the city, that assertion misses the mark for most.



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  #1149  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 2:20 AM
sprtsluvr8 sprtsluvr8 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrea View Post
Well, you have to bear in mind that around 60% of those people (and I don't know where the 150,000 figure comes from) already live in the city of Atlanta.
It comes from the Central Atlanta Progress website...http://www.atlantadowntown.com/. The number is actually 140,000 employees in the 4 square mile area of Downtown...and how many of those people commute from the burbs? A large number of them, according to the hellacious traffic coming into the city every weekday morning.

Last edited by sprtsluvr8; Apr 24, 2008 at 4:55 AM.
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  #1150  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 2:39 AM
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Andrea, all you have said is that job growth is in the northern suburbs. You haven't effectively shown that your point, which I will concede as truth/fact, translates into an argument against the statement "higher gas prices directly correlates to net in-migration into the city".

Since you still can't seem to grasp how your original statement way back about 20 posts ago is wrong, then I will just stop debating you because every time you come back with counter points, they are basically answering a different question.

I don't think anyone who is involved in this discussion is really thinking about the question at hand so I am going to give up now and just sleep well knowing that I know what I am trying to say, even if no one else does. I think it would help if maybe someone - a third-party unbiased observer - with a little more technical background in this kind of analysis jumped in and figured out a "once-and-for-all" way to answer the following question:

"Will higher gas prices, when isolating other outside factors, directly result in a net increase in City of Atlanta population?"

I know that may be asking a lot but I would really like to see how that would turn out. I still believe that there is a direct correlation, with the strongest indicator being the strength of housing prices in the core vs in the 'burbs. If everyone wanted to move to the 'burbs vs into the city, would the reverse pricing situation be happening? There has been no, and I mean NO discernable drop in home prices in my neighborhood in the past year or two. Now sure, there's much more supply in the burbs but there's also a lot more jobs, too, right? What is it, 10 to 1???
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  #1151  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 2:46 AM
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I think I just figured out where our disconnect is...

Maybe you are trying to say that "higher gas prices will not cause an overall shift of population from the 'burbs to the city"

While I am trying to say "higher gas prices will cause more people, in absolute numbers, to move into the city when they might've otherwise chosen to live in the 'burbs". I believe both segments will see growth, but I think a higher percentage of Atlanta's growth will be due to economic realities like higher gas prices.

If that's the case, then it's possible that we're both correct, but I just wish you were a little more technical in the way you interpret points people make because you a quite loosey-goosey with some of the things you say and it really challenges my patience sometimes - a self-admitted character flaw.
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  #1152  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 6:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sprtsluvr8 View Post
The number is actually 140,000 employees in the 4 square mile area of Downtown...and how many of those people commute from the burbs? A large number of them, according to the hellacious traffic coming into the city every weekday morning.
Downtown is certainly a busy place but it's hardly the metro area's dominant employment center. Dont forget that a lot of the traffic you see is folks cutting through from one suburb to another, especially on the connector. Downtown also has the advantage of having extensive public transit, and of course many people who work there already live in the city.

Here's how the major office centers stack up in terms of square footage:

1 NORTHWEST ATLANTA 29,897,455
2 CENTRAL PERIMETER 27,707,076
3 DOWNTOWN 23,088,570
4 NORTH FULTON 22,293,915
5 NORTHEAST ATLANTA 18,464,763
6 NORTHLAKE 17,190,047
7 MIDTOWN 16,961,846
8 BUCKHEAD 15,241,858
9 SOUTH ATLANTA 8,635,430
10 WEST ATLANTA 1,851,891
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  #1153  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 2:57 PM
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regardless of where the job/population clusters are located, i think there's a growing propensity for the x/y generation to reside in a more urban environment regardless of where their job might be located. i know a half dozen verizon employees who chose to live in the city/buckhead/4th ward/midtown, etc.... and STILL make the commute to alpharetta.

in otherwords, there are age demographic segments that desire the city's urban givings and attributes over the suburbs any day. the reverse commute in atlanta is still a favorable transportation option. by and large, these are the folks that have been driving the city's growth for the past 10 years.
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  #1154  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 3:44 PM
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atl2phx, I agree. There are many reasons to live inside the city unrelated to gas prices. My last two employers have relocated outside the city, increasing my commute. One of my neighbors commutes to Suwanee, another to Bluegrass Parkway in Forsyth County, one goes to Henry County and several of us go to the Perimeter area. Believe me, it's not gas prices keeping us here!



The point I've been making is that to the extent gas prices influence commuting and residence choices -- and that is very much an unknown -- the natural tendency would be to locate closer to employment, living and activity centers. For most metro Atlantans, that would result in increasing density and urbanization of suburban centers.

However, there are obviously many, many other factors involved in our choices about where to live. That's why it's difficult to say that "Rising gas prices drive people back to the city." That's especially true in an extremely diffuse and decentralized place like Atlanta, where most jobs (including the high paying ones) are located outside the city. We've watched gas prices triple over the last 20 years yet growth has continued to take accelerate in the suburbs.
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  #1155  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 5:20 PM
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andrea - i agree, for a large percentage of folks moving into and around atlanta, the majority place a high priority on living close to work.

i'm suggesting, however, that among the ~80K new residents added to atlanta's MSA every year, there has been and will continue to be a solid and reliable segment that decides to live in the city based on an "urban quality of life" that is new, desirable and growing - regardless of the rise in gas prices.

not to oversimplify, but these are the sienfield/sex in the city folks that are more likely to drive a hybrid or a jetta than an SUV, they'd rather hang out at atkins park than a two year old soon to be closed establishment in a suburban strip mall, and though they may not take advantage of all her cultural gems, they like having the wide variety of cultural options unique to the city.

IMHO, atlanta (the city) offers a lifestyle that is more alluring and outperforms the burden of increased gas prices - particularly when compared to living in the suburbs.
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  #1156  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 6:35 PM
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Yes, I think we're saying the same thing, atl2phx. Gas prices don't have any bearing on why I live in the city, and I think that's true of nearly all my other city-dwelling friends. The cost of gasoline is negligible compared to the other costs of living intown anyway, but it's worth it to me for other reasons.

By the same token, I know people who live out in Kennesaw, Dacula, Carrollton, Fayetteville, etc. who complain about the rising cost of gasoline, because they commute 60 miles or more a day. They'd like to be closer to work but moving into the city of Atlanta would be anathema to them. They think it's unsafe, too crowded, too expensive, the schools are too bad, it's too bogged down in traffic, overtaxed and umpteen other things, many of which are false. But that's what they think. Moreover, moving inside the city limits isn't really going to save them gas money anyway, because like the vast majority of Atlantans they don't work in the city.
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  #1157  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 6:49 PM
Curious Atlantan Curious Atlantan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrea View Post
They think it's unsafe, too crowded, too expensive, the schools are too bad, it's too bogged down in traffic, overtaxed and umpteen other things, many of which are false. But that's what they think.
True, that's why I continuously challenge them. One evening I was walking in my neighborhood (in Buckhead's Peachtree Heights, mind you), and an most likely exurban SUV stops to ask for directions. They started the conversation by saying: "don't worry, we don't want to rob you...". They probably imagined this being "downtown" must be veeery dangerous. Out of this world...
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  #1158  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 8:31 PM
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Vewwy scawwy here in the big city. I've had a number of co-workers ask me if I wasn't afraid of living here in Buckhead. I know a number of people who've never ventured inside the Perimeter in their entire lives and I'd bet that's not uncommon at all. Some might come down for a Braves game or a concert but they lock their doors and skedaddle as soon as possible thereafter.

I even had somebody tell me the other day that she and her husband just had to get out of Kennesaw. She said it was getting so crowded and all kinds of people are living there now. So they've moved out to Paulding where you can get a little elbow room. One of my cousins felt the same way about Gwinnett County. They're happier out in Oconee now, although they say that's getting built up fast, too.
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  #1159  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 8:34 PM
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Exclamation Metro drivers: Tax us and build more transit

58% percent of respondents in 11-county metro area would favor penny tax for buses and trains


By BRIAN FEAGANS
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution


Motorists in metro Atlanta aren't just venting about the nation's second worst commute. They're willing to pay more at the cash register for buses and trains that could help alleviate it, according to an 11-county survey released today.

Asked if they would support a 1 percent sales tax to fund a specific lists of transportation projects, including rail and bus service, 58 percent of respondents said 'yes.' That support held across the region, from inner counties such as DeKalb and Fulton to the suburbs of Henry and Fayette, the survey found. And it cut across gender, race, age and income level as well.

The survey of 4,123 registered voters was conducted in March for the Transit Planning Board, a two-year-old body of transportation planners and elected officials charged with developing a transit vision for metro Atlanta and finding ways to fund it.

"There's always been the north end vs. the south end, what there was downtown Atlanta vs. what's happening in Gwinnett County," said Clayton County Commission Chairman Eldrin Bell, chair of the TPB. "This puts many of those arguments to rest. Now we are a tapestry, a quilt if you will, of woven feelings about transportation."

The survey comes less than a month after a narrow, last-minute vote in the General Assembly killed legislation to allow regions in Georgia to tax themselves to fund transportation projects.

Many observers believe the measure got bogged down in Senate vs. House politics. But also working against passage was concern about how individual counties could opt out of a regional tax.

Gov. Sonny Perdue opposed the idea, arguing that a new sales tax would be unwise in a slowing economy and would unfairly burden rural residents who shop in urban areas. In addition, he said it would be a mistake to pump more money into a state Department of Transportation in need of a major overhaul.

Cheryl King, staff director of the transit board, said the new survey should help eliminate another lingering concern she heard from some legislators: that voters wouldn't rally behind a sales tax.

"There's no secret that the Atlanta region is different than other parts of the state," King said. "If our problem is so bad that we want to tax ourselves to take care of it, why shouldn't we be able to?"

The transit board is holding public comment sessions on a wide-ranging plan that would roughly double the costs of transit in the region to $54 billion. The plan calls for expanding MARTA in three directions, lacing the region with bus lines and adding light rail networks that link spots within metro Atlanta and connect it to more distant places such as Athens and Gainesville.

The survey's question about a 1 cent-on-the-dollar sales tax put a time limit on the tax, when it would terminate without reapproval by voters. Some 36 percent of respondents said they still opposed the idea, while 6 percent said they needed more information or were undecided.

The sales tax concept had the greatest support in DeKalb, with 62 percent in support and 32 percent against, along with Spalding (61 to 32 percent) and Clayton (60 to 36) counties. Enthusiasm waned a bit in Rockdale (56 to 38), Henry (54 to 41) and Fayette (50 to 44) counties.

The survey also polled voters on their commuting habits and feelings about congestion and funding possibilities. Some 85 percent said increased investment in transportation options would strengthen the economy and reduce traffic.

Cobb County Chairman Sam Olens, who sits on the transit board, said greater leadership is needed from the Capitol. "I think that what we've had from the state is a vision that if we do nothing, people will continue coming with those high-paying jobs," he said. "We have more darn plans ... What we need is construction."
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  #1160  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2008, 8:39 PM
Andrea Andrea is offline
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Originally Posted by smArTaLlone View Post
"Now we are a tapestry, a quilt if you will, of woven feelings about transportation."
Chairman Bell has discovered the elusive Urban Fabric!!!


Seriously, this survey bodes well for transit possibilities.
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