Federal Government & Politics II

[1overcosc]

The Liberals don't have much of a structural incentive to make meaningful changes to improve housing affordability because most actions they could take will take some time to actually work their way through to the housing market.. meaning they'd have their effect after the election and PP will get the credit in voter's minds.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Trudeau is nowhere near Marxist. A Marxist wouldn't bend over for large corporations and bring in cheap labour for them, for example. Or order striking workers back to work. If you think he's Marxist then, geeze, you have a really warped view of what Marxism is.

You can go through this list one by one and decide for yourself.
https://heidelblog.net/2014/02/the-t...ts-of-marxism/

You're not disputing that he's a moron at least.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

The beautiful thing about the Canadian government is how little power it actually has. It doesn't really matter that much who is in charge since their power is quite limited.

Wait are they powerless or is Trudeau a dictator seizing everybody's bank accounts that he doesn't like?

Please pick story and stick to it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm in the "Trudeau is a Marxist moron, and thank God our system limits how much damage he (or any PM) can actually do" camp.

My life is largely the same now as it was when Harper was in power, despite the stark ideological difference. The PM really doesn't have that much power, compared to most other countries' leaders. The country is mostly run by corporations.

Oh man, the people telling us that Trudeau was literally destroying Canada are actually admitting that not much has changed. Hard to take anything you say seriously.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Build.It

You can go through this list one by one and decide for yourself.
https://heidelblog.net/2014/02/the-t...ts-of-marxism/

You're the one who thinks he's a Marxist. You tell us which of those ten points he follows.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Or order striking workers back to work.

They absolutely would if the workers are striking to protest a decision of the Marxist government!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East...rising_of_1953

But your point is broadly taken. JT is definitely not a Marxist.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but that will be a low burn as activity was pretty low April through summer of 2020. The real wave would it into the fall and year after that. It also looks like rates will be much lower by April so the majority of the new buyers at least look like they will have missed the worst of the adjustments. At least my bank stocks seem to have recovered from their dip last fall when rates looked to have been elevated for longer and no longer see defaults as a big worry. I guess that is because a recession seems imminent which isn't good news for Liberal electoral fortunes though.

Canadian banks are making massive loan loss provisions for mortgages in 2025. They do not appear to share your optimism.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Canadian banks are making massive loan loss provisions for mortgages in 2025. They do not appear to share your optimism.

I don't think the banks break it down by sector but understand that these losses are not residential mortgaes most of whom are backed by CMHC or other wise insured (or have LTV that make them non risky).

Not to say they aren't predicting people defaulting but the increase in provisions is more about other loans not mortgages so isn't conclusive evidence of this provision.

Also not to say the SS Canada isn't headed for icy waters more generally and a spring election is very possible.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by acottawa

People who got 5 year COVID mortgages will start renewing in April. They are looking at their mortgage approximately doubling (worse if they had variable with fixed payments and have been digging into a deeper hole).

Glad I don't bank or use the same calculator as you...

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't think the banks break it down by sector but understand that these losses are not residential mortgaes most of whom are backed by CMHC or other wise insured (or have LTV that make them non risky).

Not to say they aren't predicting people defaulting but the increase in provisions is more about other loans not mortgages so isn't conclusive evidence of this provision.

Also not to say the SS Canada isn't headed for icy waters more generally and a spring election is very possible.

Thinking that a certain LTV threshold makes a residential mortgage not risky is the kind of thing that destroyed numerous lenders in 2008. A low LTV is safe until it isn't.

Even if a bank can recover 100% of the loan value through a foreclosure and sale it's bad business overall. No one overseeing a loan portfolio at one of the big 5 wants their capital tied up for an extended period of time trying to recover principal in a very illiquid market. The risk guys want proper duration matching and to that you need your borrowers paying the underwritting rate for the length of the term.

[MonctonRad]

BREAKING NEWS

Jagmeet pulling out of pseudo-coalition with JT's Liberals!!!

Just heard this on CBC Radio.

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

BREAKING NEWS

Jagmeet pulling out of pseudo-coalition with JT's Liberals!!!

Very curious where this goes. Do we get an election this fall???

Saskatchewan already has municipal and provincial elections scheduled one week after and before the US federal election, respectively. I can't imagine throwing another election into the mix.

I do wonder what the NDP angle is. We're getting a Tory majority, so they're in for a big downgrade in power, unless they think they can campaign to Official Opposition territory.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

BREAKING NEWS

Jagmeet pulling out of pseudo-coalition with JT's Liberals!!!

Just heard this on CBC Radio.

Fall election? This is great news.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

Very curious where this goes. Do we get an election this fall???

Saskatchewan already has municipal and provincial elections scheduled one week after and before the US federal election, respectively. I can't imagine throwing another election into the mix.

I do wonder what the NDP angle is. We're getting a Tory majority, so they're in for a big downgrade in power, unless they think they can campaign to Official Opposition territory.

NB has a provincial election this fall too.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I suspect the NDP will vote with the Liberals on a case-by-case basis, and I would very much doubt that we're walking into an election in the coming months.

I immensely respect Jagmeet for doing this though. He couldn't keep criticizing the Liberals while propping them up.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

NB has a provincial election this fall too.

And BC too.

[WarrenC12]

The government has to fail a confidence vote for an election to happen. That means there needs to be one, and they don't get support from the BQ.

Who knows, but I also wonder what Jagmeet is really thinking. The NDP have literally never had more power in the Federal government. He had one more year/budget to further solidify his pharmacare/dental dreams.

I guess we'll see what happens.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I suspect the NDP will vote with the Liberals on a case-by-case basis, and I would very much doubt that we're walking into an election in the coming months.

I immensely respect Jagmeet for doing this though. He couldn't keep criticizing the Liberals while propping them up.

So nothing changes except the rhetoric and you immensly respect him for this position?

I see nothing wrong from an NDP persepctive with propping them up but have some actual conivctions to vote no confidence if you are claiming to cancel the agreement. (Yes I understand in our system they can vote in support without an agreement)

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I suspect the NDP will vote with the Liberals on a case-by-case basis, and I would very much doubt that we're walking into an election in the coming months.

I immensely respect Jagmeet for doing this though. He couldn't keep criticizing the Liberals while propping them up.

The NDP's whole political brand is built around criticizing the Liberals, even more than Conservatives. It's been amusing watching Singh collaborate with the Liberal government even as he backhands it at every turn, but honestly I don't know what the play could be here. There's no electoral advantage for the NDP; if an election were held now the party may even lose seats. And in terms of advancing legislation and achieving genuine policy goals, the supply-confidence agreement may be the best possible situation for the NDP, even if they're not getting everything they want.

[Marshsparrow]

Hahahahaha now PP will have to support the Liberals.