Federal Government & Politics II

[Build.It]

The beautiful thing about the Canadian government is how little power it actually has. It doesn't really matter that much who is in charge since their power is quite limited.

[kool maudit]

Both Trump and the AfD campaign on anti-immigration. Canada may not be different, but just slower. We were basically still "points system!" when Merkel said wir schaffen das.

The AfD would vanish if SPD pulled a Mette Fredriksen. The US is a bit different. Broadly, I suspect the Anglosphere and the Continent will pull apart in this regard over the next decade.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Good point. JT desperately needs to Trump Harper. Jagmeet desperately needs his pension. This government isn't going anywhere until the fixed election date.

Or change the date and push it to 5 years? Or is that now seen outside the pale?

Originally Posted by acottawa

I actually think the Liberals will throw Singh's pension under the bus in the late winter. They will realize that the US election has had no impact on Trudeau and they will not want to be in office for the Mortgage Apocalypse that will start in April.

Is April a key date for that? They could pull a UK and pull an early trigger to avoid a worsening economy and get the element of surprise. Of course that didn't work out well for them. The UK economy actually put up some good numbers immediatly post election. Arguably they might have gotten more decimated had they waited until now though. Right now in Canada the Liberals look like they could hold on to a good firewall of seats in Quebec and a smattering of other areas. Quebec is noticeably fickle though so counting on that seems foolhardy.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Build.It

The beautiful thing about the Canadian government is how little power it actually has. It doesn't really matter that much who is in charge since their power is quite limited.

How so? You mean because of Federalism? The Feds still lead and control most of the purse strings. With a large majority wholescale change is very possible.

Aren't you in the Trudeau broke everything camp? How did he do that with no power.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

How so? You mean because of Federalism? The Feds still lead and control most of the purse strings. With a large majority wholescale change is very possible.

Aren't you in the Trudeau broke everything camp? How did he do that with no power.

I'm in the "Trudeau is a Marxist moron, and thank God our system limits how much damage he (or any PM) can actually do" camp.

My life is largely the same now as it was when Harper was in power, despite the stark ideological difference. The PM really doesn't have that much power, compared to most other countries' leaders. The country is mostly run by corporations.

Honestly, Kyle Kemper's interview on Tucker was pretty eye opening for me. The biggest takeaway for me was that JT isn't really running things, and in hindsight seems to check out.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

Both Trump and the AfD campaign on anti-immigration. Canada may not be different, but just slower. We were basically still "points system!" when Merkel said wir schaffen das.

The AfD would vanish if SPD pulled a Mette Fredriksen. The US is a bit different. Broadly, I suspect the Anglosphere and the Continent will pull apart in this regard over the next decade.

I am not so sure about this, though it will be quite interesting to see what happens with Quebec in Canada if indeed it does happen.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Is April a key date for that? They could pull a UK and pull an early trigger to avoid a worsening economy and get the element of surprise. Of course that didn't work out well for them. The UK economy actually put up some good numbers immediatly post election. Arguably they might have gotten more decimated had they waited until now though. Right now in Canada the Liberals look like they could hold on to a good firewall of seats in Quebec and a smattering of other areas. Quebec is noticeably fickle though so counting on that seems foolhardy.

People who got 5 year COVID mortgages will start renewing in April. They are looking at their mortgage approximately doubling (worse if they had variable with fixed payments and have been digging into a deeper hole).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

People who got 5 year COVID mortgages will start renewing in April. They are looking at their mortgage approximately doubling (worse if they had variable with fixed payments and have been digging into a deeper hole).

Yes but that will be a low burn as activity was pretty low April through summer of 2020. The real wave would it into the fall and year after that. It also looks like rates will be much lower by April so the majority of the new buyers at least look like they will have missed the worst of the adjustments. At least my bank stocks seem to have recovered from their dip last fall when rates looked to have been elevated for longer and no longer see defaults as a big worry. I guess that is because a recession seems imminent which isn't good news for Liberal electoral fortunes though.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm in the "Trudeau is a Marxist moron, and thank God our system limits how much damage he (or any PM) can actually do" camp.

Trudeau is nowhere near Marxist. A Marxist wouldn't bend over for large corporations and bring in cheap labour for them, for example. Or order striking workers back to work. If you think he's Marxist then, geeze, you have a really warped view of what Marxism is.

[1overcosc]

The Liberals don't have much of a structural incentive to make meaningful changes to improve housing affordability because most actions they could take will take some time to actually work their way through to the housing market.. meaning they'd have their effect after the election and PP will get the credit in voter's minds.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Trudeau is nowhere near Marxist. A Marxist wouldn't bend over for large corporations and bring in cheap labour for them, for example. Or order striking workers back to work. If you think he's Marxist then, geeze, you have a really warped view of what Marxism is.

You can go through this list one by one and decide for yourself.
https://heidelblog.net/2014/02/the-t...ts-of-marxism/

You're not disputing that he's a moron at least.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

The beautiful thing about the Canadian government is how little power it actually has. It doesn't really matter that much who is in charge since their power is quite limited.

Wait are they powerless or is Trudeau a dictator seizing everybody's bank accounts that he doesn't like?

Please pick story and stick to it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm in the "Trudeau is a Marxist moron, and thank God our system limits how much damage he (or any PM) can actually do" camp.

My life is largely the same now as it was when Harper was in power, despite the stark ideological difference. The PM really doesn't have that much power, compared to most other countries' leaders. The country is mostly run by corporations.

Oh man, the people telling us that Trudeau was literally destroying Canada are actually admitting that not much has changed. Hard to take anything you say seriously.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Build.It

You can go through this list one by one and decide for yourself.
https://heidelblog.net/2014/02/the-t...ts-of-marxism/

You're the one who thinks he's a Marxist. You tell us which of those ten points he follows.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Or order striking workers back to work.

They absolutely would if the workers are striking to protest a decision of the Marxist government!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East...rising_of_1953

But your point is broadly taken. JT is definitely not a Marxist.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but that will be a low burn as activity was pretty low April through summer of 2020. The real wave would it into the fall and year after that. It also looks like rates will be much lower by April so the majority of the new buyers at least look like they will have missed the worst of the adjustments. At least my bank stocks seem to have recovered from their dip last fall when rates looked to have been elevated for longer and no longer see defaults as a big worry. I guess that is because a recession seems imminent which isn't good news for Liberal electoral fortunes though.

Canadian banks are making massive loan loss provisions for mortgages in 2025. They do not appear to share your optimism.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Canadian banks are making massive loan loss provisions for mortgages in 2025. They do not appear to share your optimism.

I don't think the banks break it down by sector but understand that these losses are not residential mortgaes most of whom are backed by CMHC or other wise insured (or have LTV that make them non risky).

Not to say they aren't predicting people defaulting but the increase in provisions is more about other loans not mortgages so isn't conclusive evidence of this provision.

Also not to say the SS Canada isn't headed for icy waters more generally and a spring election is very possible.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by acottawa

People who got 5 year COVID mortgages will start renewing in April. They are looking at their mortgage approximately doubling (worse if they had variable with fixed payments and have been digging into a deeper hole).

Glad I don't bank or use the same calculator as you...

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't think the banks break it down by sector but understand that these losses are not residential mortgaes most of whom are backed by CMHC or other wise insured (or have LTV that make them non risky).

Not to say they aren't predicting people defaulting but the increase in provisions is more about other loans not mortgages so isn't conclusive evidence of this provision.

Also not to say the SS Canada isn't headed for icy waters more generally and a spring election is very possible.

Thinking that a certain LTV threshold makes a residential mortgage not risky is the kind of thing that destroyed numerous lenders in 2008. A low LTV is safe until it isn't.

Even if a bank can recover 100% of the loan value through a foreclosure and sale it's bad business overall. No one overseeing a loan portfolio at one of the big 5 wants their capital tied up for an extended period of time trying to recover principal in a very illiquid market. The risk guys want proper duration matching and to that you need your borrowers paying the underwritting rate for the length of the term.

[MonctonRad]

BREAKING NEWS

Jagmeet pulling out of pseudo-coalition with JT's Liberals!!!

Just heard this on CBC Radio.