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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
S-curve. You still don't get it.....
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What you don't get is s-curves rarely last very long, the ones that get pointed at the rare ones that do, while the ones that don't are forgotten.
Chinese (and must countries') solar build-out was a s-curve. It looked like this:
2013: 12.5 GW (new capacity added)
2014: 9 GW
2015: 17.3 GW
2016: 34.1 GW
2017: 53.1 GW
2018: 45.2 GW
2019: 30 GW
Its fast growth period only lasted 3 years and has already entered the top part of the s-curve when solar only accounts for 3-4% of total generation.
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But it's not just renewables. Storage is coming online now too. If you're this in to energy, surely you've read about Lazard's LCOE and LCOS findings.
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Yes I have seen Lazard's work, and I consider Lazard irrelevant given the real world, where ever "cheaper" wind and solar has led to ever more expensive electricity to the consumer. How cheap is wind and solar for Germany?
If wind and solar are so cheap and getting cheaper, why did Chinese new capacity peak in 2015 and 2017? Even though China has by far the biggest electricity system and builds more wind turbines and solar panels than anyone else, and probably the rest of the world combined.
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You're about 3 years behind on your crocodile tears.... Grid storage (battery, flywheels, molten salt), demand-management, etc. makes those problems increasingly manageable going forward.
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Let's see them handle multi-day low wind periods in the winter first (in Europe), periods in Germany known as dunkelflaute without keeping enough natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydro to meet peak demand.