PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[Milksteak]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Slow growth is not a bad thing. Philly is a mature city with a mature trade area and so is unlikely to experience explosive growth until the next industrial revolution (by which I mean: until the next sweeping round of economic innovations that fuels explosive growth in every city, like the Industrial Revolution did).

Yeah I agree with this, with slow(er) growth we can focus on infrastructure improvement to handle the population increases rather than just spurting out in every direction (Phoenix style). Love it or hate it, Septa is key for the region and is a game changer in the long run...so many cities outside of the East Coast don't have a reliable metro system and are forced into cars.

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Slow growth is not a bad thing. Philly is a mature city with a mature trade area and so is unlikely to experience explosive growth until the next industrial revolution (by which I mean: until the next sweeping round of economic innovations that fuels explosive growth in every city, like the Industrial Revolution did).

We can seek to keep our growth rates about the same as our peer cities, though. Those would be Chicago and Boston more than any other.

BTW did you know the DC CSA stretches out to include Hagerstown? And -- more insultingly still -- Chambersburg?? What a load of crock! I've always wondered what the numbers would look like if Philly's CSA were actually the size of our city region, like New York's, Boston's, and DC's all seem to be ...

Here's my estimate of the Philly CSA's true size. This is still a conservative estimate that doesn't even go the mountains; I don't think we can dispute the internal trade and commuting links among any of them:

Current CSA -- 6 million
Lancaster County -- 0.5 million
Harrisburg CSA -- 1.2 million
Franklin County -- 0.15 million
Lehigh Valley MSA -- 0.82 million
Mercer County -- 0.37 million

That yields a corrected Philadelphia CSA of 9.04 million, revealing that we're undercounted by a third.

Exactly, Philly is getting massively ripped off in these metro calculations. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Philly got included in New York's CSA one of these days coz it seems like that's what happens to any place in a 100-mile radius surrounding NYC.

[br323206]

Originally Posted by jjv007

Exactly, Philly is getting massively ripped off in these metro calculations. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Philly got included in New York's CSA one of these days coz it seems like that's what happens to any place in a 100-mile radius surrounding NYC.

We get screwed twice because we also get screwed in the city proper population comparisons. Philly 134 square miles. Houston 600+ square miles. It's ridiculous that we use these to try to form any reasonable comparisons.

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by 1487

This ties into this:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20160324_Slow-growing_metro_Phila__falls_to_No__7_nationally.html

The article states much of what I have been stating (falling on deaf ears) lately. For one, the entire region is growing slowly, secondly, weather and cheaper/newer development are huge factors in which regions are growing and furthermore many people that are choosing to leave Philly aren't necessarily doing so because they want to live in the suburbs. I don't really agree with this version of the Philly area- sorry, but northern MD isn't truly tied to Philadelphia in any meaningful way. When you consider how huge the areas are it's no wonder DC metro has passed Philly.

Can anyone state why these numbers are important and for what? As far as I'm concern, they are only important to bean counters. I wouldn't extrapolate or draw too much conclusions to them without a deeper dive. And, population count is an ebb and flow process that is dependent on so many factors.

[1487]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

Can anyone state why these numbers are important and for what? As far as I'm concern, they are only important to bean counters. I wouldn't extrapolate or draw too much conclusions to them without a deeper dive. And, population count is an ebb and flow process that is dependent on so many factors.

I don't think they are all that important to individuals within the region, but some would argue these stats indicate which areas are more competitive. I think that's sort of dubious because so many factors can lead to population growth. Advantages the south generally has over the NE part of the country are weather and cheaper land/housing. That isn't going to change and it will continue to be a draw for many.

[1487]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Yep, Mercer and the Lehigh Valley laughably go to NYC instead of Philly MSA/CSA.

Doesn't make sense. Houston, Atlanta, Dallas MSA square mileage is twice the size of Philadelphia.

Houston MSA: 10,062 square miles
Dallas MSA: 9,286 square miles
Atlanta MSA: 8,376 square miles
Miami MSA: 6,137 square miles
Washington DC MSA: 5,564 square miles
Philadelphia MSA: 5,118 square miles

Totally inexact science to say the least. talk about comparing apples to oranges

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by 1487

I don't think they are all that important to individuals within the region, but some would argue these stats indicate which areas are more competitive. I think that's sort of dubious because so many factors can lead to population growth. Advantages the south generally has over the NE part of the country are weather and cheaper land/housing. That isn't going to change and it will continue to be a draw for many.

Don't forget many southern states have Right to Work laws which make them more competitive. For example, automakers prefer their factories in the south.

[br323206]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

Don't forget many southern states have Right to Work laws which make them more competitive. For example, automakers prefer their factories in the south.

Automobile manufacturing has grown in the south. But Michigan and Ohio still own the industry. They have far more auto plants than other states and, in Ohio at least, I know that the industry has been growing since the recession. 75 out of Ohio's 88 counties have at least one auto manufacturing or parts manufacturing plant. Auto manufacturing in Ohio is a $100 billion + industry.

[br323206]

Originally Posted by 1487

I don't think they are all that important to individuals within the region, but some would argue these stats indicate which areas are more competitive. I think that's sort of dubious because so many factors can lead to population growth. Advantages the south generally has over the NE part of the country are weather and cheaper land/housing. That isn't going to change and it will continue to be a draw for many.

The only problem is that businesses make locational decisions based on the data and the federal government makes spending decisions based on it too.

[1487]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

Don't forget many southern states have Right to Work laws which make them more competitive. For example, automakers prefer their factories in the south.

all the automakers not based in the US are down south except for Honda, Toyota and Suburu which have some facilities in the midwest. There are also some plants in Canada. The reality is the actual wages are about the same, but the foreign companies try their best to stay away from states with a history of unionized labor. The European ones in particular because they deal with MUCH higher wages and benefits for their workers back home. Unions have been decimated so I honestly don't think that whole right to work thing is even a huge advantage these days. I'm sure it was back in the days when private sector unions still had influence and big numbers of members.

[1487]

Originally Posted by br323206

The only problem is that businesses make locational decisions based on the data and the federal government makes spending decisions based on it too.

When you have 5-6M people in a region you are still going to be a large chunk of federal dollars. The larger impact is loss of congressional influence as population shifts south and west. THAT is a significant problem, but I don't see much that is going to stop the trend at this point. Many of the small town and rural areas of the older NE states are struggling and really only the major metro areas are experiencing any growth. For decades population has been shifting away from the NE and Midwestern US.

[Jelly Roll]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Slow growth is not a bad thing. Philly is a mature city with a mature trade area and so is unlikely to experience explosive growth until the next industrial revolution (by which I mean: until the next sweeping round of economic innovations that fuels explosive growth in every city, like the Industrial Revolution did).

We can seek to keep our growth rates about the same as our peer cities, though. Those would be Chicago and Boston more than any other.

BTW did you know the DC CSA stretches out to include Hagerstown? And -- more insultingly still -- Chambersburg?? What a load of crock! I've always wondered what the numbers would look like if Philly's CSA were actually the size of our city region, like New York's, Boston's, and DC's all seem to be ...

Here's my estimate of the Philly CSA's true size. This is still a conservative estimate that doesn't even go the mountains; I don't think we can dispute the internal trade and commuting links among any of them:

Current CSA -- 6 million
Lancaster County -- 0.5 million
Harrisburg CSA -- 1.2 million
Franklin County -- 0.15 million
Lehigh Valley MSA -- 0.82 million
Mercer County -- 0.37 million

That yields a corrected Philadelphia CSA of 9.04 million, revealing that we're undercounted by a third.

Completely get your point and agree with it but if you spend any time in the Lehigh Valley or in Mercer County the big employers like big 4 accounting firms and the like are often serviced by the Manhattan offices and not the Philly offices. Being how the census is based off of work commuting patterns this is what screws us.

In reality the region benefits greatly from being in between DC and NY but when it comes to measuring things like population we get screwed big time. I also believe both Mercer and Lehigh Valley do meet the requires with work commuter patterns to be in the Philly CSA and possibly MSA but NYC has a higher commuter percent so they are counted there.

[Outta here]

2014 rank City State[5] 2014 estimate 2010 Census Change 2014 land area 2010 population density Location
1 New York[6] New York 8,491,079 8,175,133 +3.86% 302.6 sq mi
783.8 km2 27,012 per sq mi
10,430 km−2 40.6643°N 73.9385°W
2 Los Angeles California 3,928,864 3,792,621 +3.59% 468.7 sq mi
1,213.9 km2 8,092 per sq mi
3,124 km−2 34.0194°N 118.4108°W
3 Chicago Illinois 2,722,389 2,695,598 +0.99% 227.6 sq mi
589.6 km2 11,842 per sq mi
4,572 km−2 41.8376°N 87.6818°W
4 Houston[7] Texas 2,239,558 2,100,263 +6.63% 599.6 sq mi
1,552.9 km2 3,501 per sq mi
1,352 km−2 29.7805°N 95.3863°W
5 Philadelphia[8] Pennsylvania 1,560,297 1,526,006 +2.25% 134.1 sq mi
347.3 km2 11,379 per sq mi
4,394 km−2 40.0094°N 75.1333°W
6 Phoenix Arizona 1,537,058 1,445,632 +6.32% 516.7 sq mi
1,338.3 km2 2,798 per sq mi
1,080 km−2 33.5722°N 112.0880°W
7 San Antonio Texas 1,436,697 1,327,407 +8.23% 460.9 sq mi
1,193.8 km2 2,880 per sq mi
1,112 km−2 29.4724°N 98.5251°W
8 San Diego California 1,381,069 1,307,402 +5.63% 325.2 sq mi
842.2 km2 4,020 per sq mi
1,552 km−2 32.8153°N 117.1350°W
9 Dallas Texas 1,281,047 1,197,816 +6.95% 340.5 sq mi
881.9 km2 3,518 per sq mi
1,358 km−2 32.7757°N 96.7967°W
10 San Jose California 1,015,785 945,942 +7.38% 176.6 sq mi
457.3 km2 5,359 per sq mi
2,069 km−2


IF THE 10 LARGEST CITIES IN THE US , WERE ALL THE SAME SIZE ( land area ) PHILADELPHIA WOULD BE
THE THIRD LARGEST CITY ....... PERIOD .

[summersm343]

Enclara Pharmacia moving 100 jobs to Philadelphia

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/...cia-moving-100-jobs-to-philadelphia.html

[summersm343]

Parkway Corp., shifting strategy, looks to sell lot at 20th and Arch

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/re...o_sell_parking_lot_at_20th_and_Arch.html

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by Jelly Roll

Completely get your point and agree with it but if you spend any time in the Lehigh Valley or in Mercer County the big employers like big 4 accounting firms and the like are often serviced by the Manhattan offices and not the Philly offices. Being how the census is based off of work commuting patterns this is what screws us.

In reality the region benefits greatly from being in between DC and NY but when it comes to measuring things like population we get screwed big time. I also believe both Mercer and Lehigh Valley do meet the requires with work commuter patterns to be in the Philly CSA and possibly MSA but NYC has a higher commuter percent so they are counted there.

True but there's literally Philly TV and sports signs all over Trenton or even the Lehigh Valley. And as I said earlier Trenton is literally 15 minutes or less car drive from NE Philly which is where I'm at. You can even look up aerials where Trenton and Philly are in the same picture. Its just so incredibly close to not be included in the MSA. And as hammersklavier pointed out, there are so many other similar locations that are being left out of Philly's metro population count.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Harrisburg CSA -- 1.2 million
Franklin County -- 0.15 million

I don't agree with this, Harrisburg is pretty disconnected with Philly and has its own identity and Baltimore arguably has more of a draw on HBG if you're looking towards bigger cities and Franklin Co. is even more disconnected with Philly (and for bigger cities Baltimore/DC has the pull here); 80-100 miles across PA can be an awful lot culturally and economically.

[Philly-Drew]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

I don't agree with this, Harrisburg is pretty disconnected with Philly and has its own identity and Baltimore arguably has more of a draw on HBG if you're looking towards bigger cities and Franklin Co. is even more disconnected with Philly (and for bigger cities Baltimore/DC has the pull here); 80-100 miles across PA can be an awful lot culturally and economically.

Agreed

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

I don't agree with this, Harrisburg is pretty disconnected with Philly and has its own identity and Baltimore arguably has more of a draw on HBG if you're looking towards bigger cities and Franklin Co. is even more disconnected with Philly (and for bigger cities Baltimore/DC has the pull here); 80-100 miles across PA can be an awful lot culturally and economically.

I'm aware of people who commute from Philly to Harrisburg on the Keystone. Granted, that's a tiny tiny subset, but I find it hard to believe that our state's capital would look to an out-of-state city. The business of Harrisburg, after all, is governing Pennsylvania, not Maryland.

The larger point here, though, is the obvious double standard in play. If DC's CSA is measured such that it goes out to Hagerstown, then Philly's should include Harrisburg. Period.

Otherwise the sole difference in CSA size is the fact that DC CSA gets the Baltimore conurbation.

To further elaborate: I'm not entirely sure I can trust the Census's stated CSA methodology because the fact that Lancaster isn't in Harrisburg's CSA makes me call bull. Any idiot with half a brain can tell that the northwest part of Lancaster County is clearly within Harrisburg's commute shed. In other words, however well their stated methodology might work for cities like Denver or Salt Lake where there is jack squat outside the conurbation, the borders in Pennsylvania have been defined in a very arbitrary manner.

[Philly-Drew]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

I'm aware of people who commute from Philly to Harrisburg on the Keystone. Granted, that's a tiny tiny subset, but I find it hard to believe that our state's capital would look to an out-of-state city. The business of Harrisburg, after all, is governing Pennsylvania, not Maryland.

The larger point here, though, is the obvious double standard in play. If DC's CSA is measured such that it goes out to Hagerstown, then Philly's should include Harrisburg. Period.

Otherwise the sole difference in CSA size is the fact that DC CSA gets the Baltimore conurbation.

Good points. I've done some business in HBG and met Eagles fans there too. But, most of the people I've met had more of. HBG identity than anything else. But true, Philly's metro area gets jaded. Almost anywhere else in the US and it would be the epicenter of its entire region.