National Economy

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Replacing income was certainly needed. I don't see how this is even debatable. No developed country even those that avoided lockdowns had strong supports to avoid triggering a spiral into depression. Even with the benefit of hindsight I see no argument we could have avoided that.

The endless whining about CERB and COVID spending makes me think these people were born in 2022. We should all remember what the COVID days were like.

Of course in hindsight things could have been tweaked, but not a ton really.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The endless whining about CERB and COVID spending makes me think these people were born in 2022. We should all remember what the COVID days were like.

Of course in hindsight things could have been tweaked, but not a ton really.

That's only because BC and Alberta was lucky and had reasonable periods of lockdown. Trudeau's CERB extensions gave carte blanche for Ontario to embark on excessive periods of lockdowns, to the detriment of the province's society and economy. The feds should had stopped CERB funding at a much earlier time and forced the provinces to accept reality.

[P'tit Renard]

Despite the window of opportunity that opened up during Brexit, Toronto has failed to seize the moment and improve its global financial hub status:

The chance to make Toronto a global banking hub is being squandered
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance...hub-squandered

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

That's only because BC and Alberta was lucky and had reasonable periods of lockdown. Trudeau's CERB extensions gave carte blanche for Ontario to embark on excessive periods of lockdowns, to the detriment of the province's society and economy. The feds should had stopped CERB funding at a much earlier time and forced the provinces to accept reality.

So, the independent elected government of Ontario made policy decisions that are somehow Ottawa's fault? Does that mean you will be praising the federal Liberals for how BC and Alberta chose to act?

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Replacing income was certainly needed.

You massively (I have to suspect intentionally) misread what acottawa said:

Originally Posted by acottawa

There is no need for the government to massively exceed replacing lost income in its COVID spending. .

It was the extend of the income replacement, not doing it at all.

In theory if you're not working because of a Covid lockdown, you aren't travelling, going out for entertainment, etc, and need less money than you usually do.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by jonny24

You massively (I have to suspect intentionally) misread what acottawa said:


It was the extend of the income replacement, not doing it at all.

In theory if you're not working because of a Covid lockdown, you aren't travelling, going out for entertainment, etc, and need less money than you usually do.

I read it as massive income replacement so my mistake.

That said while there were certainly people on the margins who saw an increase in income that was a very small part of the expenditures and would be a rounding error on total spending. And anyone who was making less than $2000 a month priort to Covid and thus saw an increase in income were not exactly a prime untapped workforce that were disicentivized.

I agree this is really re-litigating the past. We had a 2021 election and the more lockdown more spending folks won. Without Conservative wafflin on the issue they probably win that election. Going forward we have that debt, we have a million immigrants. I don't see PP proposing anything to fix those issues. He will obviously be better than Trudeau/Singh on both issues so he still gets my vote but I think we should be realistic.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

So, the independent elected government of Ontario made policy decisions that are somehow Ottawa's fault? Does that mean you will be praising the federal Liberals for how BC and Alberta chose to act?

At the end of the day there is only one taxpayer.

If Ottawa took away the punch bowl and did not extend CERB/CRB/CEWS, Queens Park would have bulked at funding the income supports itself, and would have been forced to face reality and end lockdowns much earlier.

Labelling it as independent governments making independent decisions is a fool's game, because ultimately Trudeau's decision to extend CERB/CRB/CEWS gave Ford political cover to extend lockdowns beyond what was reasonable.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

At the end of the day there is only one taxpayer.

If Ottawa took away the punch bowl and did not extend CERB/CRB/CEWS, Queens Park would have bulked at funding the income supports itself, and would have been forced to face reality and end lockdowns much earlier.

Labelling it as independent governments making independent decisions is a fool's game, because ultimately Trudeau's decision to extend CERB/CRB/CEWS gave Ford political cover to extend lockdowns beyond what was reasonable.

I am not sure there is any relationship between the problems with CERB and the lockdowns. There were lots of services sector jobs available. The problem with CERB, etc. is that they incentivized not working instead of taking a job in a position that was not locked down.

In university I worked summers for minimum wage at a tourist attraction. They never opened in the summer of 2020. Without CERB, a student hired for the 2020 season would have gotten another job at a grocery store or fast food place. With CERB they had every incentive to stay home and collect CERB.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The endless whining about CERB and COVID spending makes me think these people were born in 2022. We should all remember what the COVID days were like.

Of course in hindsight things could have been tweaked, but not a ton really.

Lots of other jurisdictions handled COVID way better. It isn’t like better practices weren’t available.

They recommended against masking when there was clear evidence masking worked.
When they finally recommended masks, they encouraged useless cloth masks that were useless.
They disregarded medical advice on the effectiveness of vaccines and kept restrictions in place for a full year after vaccination was widespread.
They couldn’t make up their minds about what activities were actually high risk.
They discouraged work, which led directly to the immigration crisis.
They dumped enormous amounts of money into an economy that couldn’t absorb it, leading to the inflation crisis.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I am not sure there is any relationship between the problems with CERB and the lockdowns. There were lots of services sector jobs available. The problem with CERB, etc. is that they incentivized not working instead of taking a job in a position that was not locked down.

In university I worked summers for minimum wage at a tourist attraction. They never opened in the summer of 2020. Without CERB, a student hired for the 2020 season would have gotten another job at a grocery store or fast food place. With CERB they had every incentive to stay home and collect CERB.

Good point. It's too bad idealogy wouldn't let them but if they stopped CERB but sent everyone $3000 in the fall of 2021 it would have cushioned the blow and stopped the disincentive to work. My sister was trying to hire a nanny and they would only work under the table.

This is old news at this point though no?

[whatnext]

Looks like the rail strike is a go. Will PM Sobstory who let rail blockades drag on force workers back on the job?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ions-1.7301419

[Loco101]

Wow, I can't believe many of you are discussing Covid stuff in August of 2024.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Looks like the rail strike is a go. Will PM Sobstory who let rail blockades drag on force workers back on the job?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ions-1.7301419

You do know there is a difference.

Blocking one railway line in isolation has limited impact on the Canadian economy. Shutting down the two national railways is a very different story.

I for one have little patients for unions and companies that can't resolve their HR issues without going out of strike/lockout.

They deserve to be ordered into mediation/arbitration, and if it is a good mediator, they will impose a contract that both sides don't like.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is old news at this point though no?

The people that made these decisions and screwed up the 2024 economy are still in power and seeking re-election next year.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by casper

You do know there is a difference.

Blocking one railway line in isolation has limited impact on the Canadian economy. Shutting down the two national railways is a very different story.

I for one have little patients for unions and companies that can't resolve their HR issues without going out of strike/lockout.

They deserve to be ordered into mediation/arbitration, and if it is a good mediator, they will impose a contract that both sides don't like.

Wow, did not have casper being anti-union on my bingo card.

You pro-excessive-TFW stance makes a little more sense I suppose

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The people that made these decisions and screwed up the 2024 economy are still in power and seeking re-election next year.

In fact they've won an election since COVID. Not likely to win in 2025, but 2021 was absolutely a COVID governing referendum.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

In fact they've won an election since COVID. Not likely to win in 2025, but 2021 was absolutely a COVID governing referendum.

They got less than a third of votes, finished 2nd, lost support from the previous election. They could have recognized that a significant majority had concerns with their policies and adjusted, and instead doubled down.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I am not sure there is any relationship between the problems with CERB and the lockdowns. There were lots of services sector jobs available. The problem with CERB, etc. is that they incentivized not working instead of taking a job in a position that was not locked down.

In university I worked summers for minimum wage at a tourist attraction. They never opened in the summer of 2020. Without CERB, a student hired for the 2020 season would have gotten another job at a grocery store or fast food place. With CERB they had every incentive to stay home and collect CERB.

The threat of lockdowns was a significant disincentive to work as well, as people weren't keen on taking a service job and end up being furloughed/laid-off again in 4-8 weeks. If there was a guarantee that lockdowns won't be arbitrarily applied, and would only be triggered when absolutely necessarily for very short intervals, then people would have been much more incentivized to return to the workforce.

Given how poorly Ontario handled its COVID response and at one point Toronto had one of the western world's longest lockdowns, it was natural people would rather take the stability of the CERB extension payments.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

They got less than a third of votes, finished 2nd, lost support from the previous election. They could have recognized that a significant majority had concerns with their policies and adjusted, and instead doubled down.

That's an interesting historical take on the 2021 election. Mine would be:

They were very popular because of Covid response though their was general fatigue lignering from 2017. They called an early election to capitlize on their Covid popularity. People resented this and started to be forward looking bringing the polls back to a tie or Con lead. They pivoted back to Covid which was a winning issue for them. The fear of the anti vax anti-lockdonw wing of the Con party put them back even which with vote splitting gave them a win. I think the election exactly sent the message the fearful suburbanites who decide our elections loved the Liberal over-reaction but were tired of the rest of their agenda so they doubled down on Covid never over policies. Finally we all got Covid realized it wasn't so terrifying and the fear subsided and turned on the Liberals. But the real reason they are so unpopular is worldwide inflation. Barring that the Cons would have a small lead and be looking at a minority win.

I think this historical debate matters because the idea a few tweaks by a new government will be only positve and fix all our problems isn't helpful to our political debate.

[acottawa]

There is no worldwide inflation. There is inflation in countries that pursued hyper inflationary fiscal policies. There was low inflation in most Asian countries, in the Gulf and in many European countries.